Аргентины шигшээ багийн ахлагч Лионель Месси ДАШТ-ий шилдэг тоглогчийн шагналыг гурав дахь удаагаа хүртэх хамгийн өндөр магадлалтай байна.
Бооцооны зах зээл болон шинжээчдийн таамаглалаар Месси 90 хувийн магадлалтайгаар “Алтан бөмбөг”-ийн эзнээр нэрлэгдэж байгаа нь түүний энэ удаагийн тэмцээнд үзүүлж буй гайхалтай тоглолттой шууд холбоотой юм. Түүний гол өрсөлдөгчөөр Испанийн хагас хамгаалагч Родри нэрлэгдэж буй ч Месси 8 гоол, 4 оновчтой дамжуулалтаар багийнхаа 12 гоолд шууд оролцсон үзүүлэлтээр илүүрхэж байна.
“Алтан бөмбөг”-ийн эзнийг FIFA-гийн Техникийн судалгааны бүлгийн боловсруулсан жагсаалтын дагуу итгэмжлэгдсэн хэвлэл мэдээллийн төлөөлөгчдийн санал хураалтаар тодруулдаг. Түүхэнд 2014 болон 2022 онд энэхүү шагналыг хүртэж байсан Месси энэ удаад дахин шалгарвал дэлхийн хөлбөмбөгийн түүхэнд гурван удаа “Алтан бөмбөг” хүртсэн анхны тоглогч болох юм.
Тэмцээний дүрэм ёсоор тус шагналыг заавал аваргалсан багийн тоглогчид олгодоггүй бөгөөд 2018 онд Лука Модрич, 2014 онд Месси нар шигшээ тоглолтод хожигдсон ч тэмцээний шилдэг тоглогчоор тодорч байсан удаатай. Мессигийн хувьд хасагдах шатны тоглолтуудад үзүүлсэн нөлөөлөл, манлайлал нь түүнийг энэ удаагийн тэмцээний хамгийн шилдэг нь гэдгийг нотолж байна.
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Lionel Messi is on course to make World Cup history once again, with the Argentina captain the overwhelming favorite to win the Golden Ball as the tournament’s best player.
Messi is at the top of the betting board on both prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks.
At Kalshi, Messi is currently listed at 90 percent to win the Golden Ball. La Pulga is also a heavy -750 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the award — highlighting just how strongly he is viewed as the tournament’s outstanding player.
Spain midfielder Rodri is the closest challenger at +600 after another excellent tournament in which he has been the heartbeat of Spain’s midfield. His leadership and consistency draw some comparisons with Modric’s Golden Ball-winning campaign in 2018.
Argentina through to the World Cup final | World Cup Daily Briefing
Megan Feringa and Luke Bosher
Further behind are Spain teammates Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal at +2500, while England’s Jude Bellingham and France captain Kylian Mbappe are both priced at +3300.
Rodri has undoubtedly strengthened his credentials by helping Spain reach the World Cup final, but Messi’s individual impact has been on another level. With more goals, more assists and a series of match-defining performances throughout the knockout rounds, the Argentine appears poised to become the first player ever to win the World Cup Golden Ball on three separate occasions.
If Messi does win, it would mark the third time he has claimed the award after previously taking home the honor in 2014 and 2022 — an unprecedented achievement that would further cement his status as one of the greatest players the game has ever seen.
The Golden Ball is awarded to the best player at the FIFA World Cup, recognizing the individual who has had the greatest overall impact throughout the tournament rather than simply scoring the most goals.
The selection process begins during the competition, with FIFA’s Technical Study Group compiling a shortlist of standout performers. Those nominees are then voted on by accredited media representatives before the tournament concludes.
In many cases, the winner is effectively decided before the final has even been played, meaning the award does not necessarily go to a player from the eventual champions.
In 2018, Croatia captain Luka Modric received the Golden Ball despite his team losing 4-2 to France in the final.
Modric inspired one of the tournament’s most memorable underdog runs, scoring twice during the group stage while also converting penalties in both the Round of 16 and quarterfinal shootouts. His leadership and influence carried Croatia all the way to the final, where they ultimately fell short against France.
Messi experienced something similar four years earlier.
He won his first Golden Ball at the 2014 World Cup despite Argentina suffering a heartbreaking 1-0 extra-time defeat to Germany in the final.
Although Argentina failed to lift the trophy, Messi’s individual performances were widely regarded as the defining displays of the tournament. He scored four goals, registered a decisive assist that helped Argentina secure another victory, collected four Player of the Match awards and repeatedly delivered in crucial moments, despite battling fitness issues.
Germany ultimately lifted the World Cup, but no individual player matched Messi’s influence over the course of the tournament.
Eight years later, there was no debate. Messi finally captured the World Cup in Qatar and also claimed his second Golden Ball after producing one of the greatest individual tournaments of his career.
He finished with seven goals and three assists, broke multiple World Cup records and inspired Argentina to its first World Cup title in 36 years.
His performances at this World Cup are considered by most to have been even better.
Messi heads into the final having scored eight goals while adding four assists, meaning he has been directly involved in 12 goals for Argentina. Even when he has not found the back of the net, he has continued to dictate matches, including providing both assists in Argentina’s 2-1 semifinal victory over England.
His combination of goals, creativity and leadership has made him the standout individual performer of the tournament and leaves him in a commanding position to collect another Golden Ball.
