Испанийн эмх цэгцтэй тоглолт болон Аргентины туршлага, Лионель Мессигийн ур чадвар Ням гарагт болох шигшээ тоглолтод тулгарна.
Испаничууд хагас шигшээд Францыг 81 дэх минут хүртэл хаалга руу нэг ч оновчтой цохилт хийлгэлгүй, тактик болон техникийн хувьд илүүрхэн хожсон. Тэдний хамгаалалт тэмцээний туршид ердөө нэг гоол алдаж, нэг ч удаа оноогоор дутаж үзээгүй нь багийн сахилга бат өндөр байгааг илтгэнэ. Родри болон Фабиан Руис нарын удирдсан хагас хамгаалалт тоглолтын хэмнэлийг бүрэн хянаж, өрсөлдөгчдөө талбайн чөлөөт бүсэд нэвтрэх боломж олгосонгүй.
Харин Аргентинчууд хагас шигшээд Английг хожихдоо уян хатан тактик ашиглаж, Лионель Мессигийн хоёр дамжуулалтаар тоглолтыг эргүүлсэн. Лионель Скалони бүрэлдэхүүнийг 4-3-3, 4-4-2 болон таван хамгаалагчтай хувилбаруудад шилжүүлэн тоглуулж, өрсөлдөгчийнхөө хэмнэлийг тактикийн алдаануудаар эвдэхэд бэлэн байна. Хулиан Альваресын өндөр эрчимтэй шахалт болон дамжуулалтын олон хувилбар нь тэднийг Испанийн эсрэг илүү хүчтэй өрсөлдөгч болгож байгаа юм.
Испани хамгаалалтын нягт байдлаараа давуу бол Аргентин тэмцээний хамгийн олон гоол оруулсан баг гэдгээрээ ялгарч байна. Тэдний тоглолтын гол зангилаа нь Лионель Мессиг хэрхэн зогсоох, мөн Скалонигийн сэлгээний шийдвэрүүд хэрхэн нөлөөлөхөд оршино. Аргентинчууд Францаас илүүтэйгээр Испанийн хяналттай тоглолтыг эвдэх чадамжтай нь тодорхой боловч энэ нь аваргын цом өргөхөд хангалттай эсэхийг Ням гарагийн тоглолт харуулна.
Дэлгэрэнгүй эх сурвалжийг харах
Эх сурвалжийг нээх ↓
We have a final this World Cup deserves. Spain have been the tournament’s standout side, while Argentina have built another run on resilience, experience and the enduring brilliance of Lionel Messi.
Spain are deserved favourites, but if Argentina are to retain their crown, they must do what France could not: compete with Spain’s midfield and disrupt the control that has underpinned their run to the final.
Their semi-final performances could hardly have been more different, but together they offered an intriguing glimpse of the tactical battle that awaits in New Jersey.
In Texas, Spain bewildered France, neutralising what has looked like the most formidable attack in the tournament. France failed to register a shot on target until the 81st minute and generated just 0.3 expected goals — the lowest by any team in a World Cup semi-final since 1994. Spain were better tactically and technically.
In Atlanta, England took the lead in the 55th minute of a tight, cautious contest, then succumbed to the occasion and ceded control to Argentina. The two teams combined for only 0.08 xG in the first half, the lowest ever recorded in a World Cup knockout match. After Anthony Gordon opened the scoring, England held just 12 per cent of possession, the lowest on record for a side in front at a World Cup. Messi, inevitably, provided the assists for both goals that turned it around.
The two games bore no resemblance to one another, yet together they tell us exactly who the finalists are — and what Sunday could look like.
Spain have been the best side of the tournament by a distance. Their defence has conceded just once in seven games and have not trailed for a single minute. What separates them is the collective discipline with which they execute their system.
France found them difficult to match as Didier Deschamps abandoned his usual pragmatism to press higher and field four attackers. Spain denied them the space to counter or combine between the lines. France’s disjointed press only created more openings for Spain to play through, with Rodri and Fabian Ruiz controlling the game from midfield.
Why Argentina pose a different challenge
Argentina will present a very different combination of traits that will attempt to combat the control. Their tournament has been defined by resurgence, game after game.
The defending champions are the tournament’s top scorers but have not been ahead at the 90th minute in a single knockout tie. Somehow, they won every one. Argentina specialise in the rescue act, most memorably against Egypt, where they trailed 2–0 until the final 10 minutes before completing the latest two-goal comeback that led to a win in regulation in World Cup history.
Similar to Spain in some ways, they are also a system team, yet a flexible one. Lionel Scaloni has switched between a 4-3-3, a 4-4-2 and a back five throughout the tournament, giving Argentina flexibility both in and out of possession. Julián Alvarez sets the tone without the ball, having applied more high-intensity pressures in the opposition half than any player across the last two World Cups.
In possession, Argentina create overloads across the pitch. Out of possession they are more than willing to disrupt opponents’ rhythm with tactical fouls, something they used effectively against England and will likely employ again against Spain.
Argentina are a better match-up against Spain in possession, too. They are as comfortable dominating the ball as they are defending without it, illustrated by retaining 88 per cent possession after taking control against England. They lead the World Cup for through balls, a weapon that could exploit Spain’s press, while only Spain have produced more sequences of 10 or more passes. With an extra midfielder compared to France, Argentina should be better equipped to play through Spain’s pressure.
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Providing a spark
Spain’s defence has forced opponents into poor-quality shots, conceding just 0.05 expected goals per shot, the lowest in the competition. Argentina, though, have scored the most goals in the tournament, and score a variety of them. They have five from outside the box, the joint-most, and lead the way for headed and set-piece goals as well. Any lane Spain leave slightly ajar, one can trust Argentina to force open.
Spain arrive with threats of their own. Their full-backs have been central to holding width and, often, underlapping, with Pedro Porro’s runs inside dragging defenders away from Lamine Yamal, freeing him for one-v-ones. The cutback has become their signature move.
The threat runs deep into their bench too, with Mikel Merino, Pedri, Ferran Torres and Nico Williams featuring regularly.
But it is the other side of Spain’s game that should worry Argentina most. They planned for great attackers against France and executed it to perfection, Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise starved into irrelevance, both recording their fewest touches of the tournament.
Then there is Messi, leading the scoring charts. He has been involved in 52.7 per cent of Argentina’s shots, with a hand in 12 of their 19 goals, collecting records at will as he goes.
As in 2022, he has 10 teammates as his supporting cast, running with and without the ball in his service and looking for him every time they regain it. In spirit, Spain will attempt against him what they did to France’s stars.
It will not transfer in the same way. Messi, unlike most, does not need rhythm or momentum. He is content to wait for the game to come to him, anonymous for long stretches, decisive when it matters, and there has been a sense of inevitability about it all tournament.
The task of limiting him falls to the midfielders screening Spain’s defence, Rodri above all, because 19 per cent of Messi’s touches come in the pockets outside the box, the very zone Rodri patrols. And when that space closes, Messi simply relocates, drifting into the wider right-side areas as defences tire, the source of both assists in Atlanta and the switch that turned the Egypt tie.
Argentina’s other lethal weapon sits in the dugout. Scaloni’s reading of the game has turned matches multiple times this tournament, his substitutions born of necessity and timed to the moment, a crucial part of Argentina’s success. The hydration breaks have helped his instinct and sharpened his teams, handing him two windows a game to act on what he sees.
All of this makes Sunday the toughest test either side has faced, and a contest to savour for the neutral.
Argentina are unquestionably better suited to face Spain than France were. Whether that is enough remains to be seen.
