НХЛ-ийн тоглогчдын солилцооны өвөрмөц түүх ба шинэчлэгдсэн систем

There’s a good chance that years from now, we’ll look back at these last few weeks as the dawn of the offer sheet era, with the Barrett Hayton shot followed by a massive Leo Carlsson chaser. Things got wild.

But it could have been wilder. Gather ’round, kids, grandpa’s got a quick story time.

The concepts of restricted free agents and offer sheets first appeared in the NHL in 1988, and for the first few years, they looked very different from what we know today. In certain circumstances, the player’s original team had no right to match. And if a team couldn’t or wouldn’t match the offer, there was no pre-made chart of draft pick compensation to refer to.

Instead, the compensation would be players — basically, the two teams would be forced to work out a trade. And if they couldn’t directly agree on what that trade should be, things got even wilder. Both teams would submit a proposal for what they thought a “fair” deal would look like, and an independent arbitrator would have to pick one or the other.

The most infamous example of this process came in 1991, when the Blues signed Brendan Shanahan to an offer sheet, prying him away from a Devils team that had no right to match. The Blues offered a compensation built around two young players in Rod Brind’Amour and Curtis Joseph. Not bad. But the Devils wanted more, and they asked for superstar blueliner Scott Stevens instead. Somewhat shockingly, the arbitrator sided with the Devils, sending a furious Stevens to New Jersey and altering the next decade-plus of NHL history.

That decision directly led to the NHL scrapping the forced-trade system in the 1994 CBA. Today, we’re bringing it back.

Why? Because the old system was all sorts of chaotic fun, and we miss it. You think it’s fun to argue over one trade? Imagine getting two to chew on — one that will actually happen, and one that lingers as an eternal “what if?”

So today, we’re going to recreate the old system and apply it to eight of the biggest offer sheets. All eight of these players signed offer sheets. None actually changed teams because their deals were matched, the way almost every offer sheet has been since 1994.

But not today. Today, we’re going to change history by applying the old forced-trade system to the eight biggest offer sheets of the last few decades.

Here’s how it will work. Representing the signing teams will be Julian McKenzie. Representing the original teams will be Mark Lazerus. Each will come up with what their sides think is a fair offer — or at least, fair enough to sway the arbitrator, who’ll be played by Sean McIndoe. Julian and Mark have each submitted their offers to Sean without knowing what the other sent.

1995: Jets vs. Blackhawks for Keith Tkachuk

The player: Chicago’s timing couldn’t have been better here, as we now know that Tkachuk, just 22 years old, was on the verge of back-to-back 50-goal seasons that saw him emerge as one of the league’s premier power forwards. Meanwhile, the struggling Jets were one year away from moving to Phoenix

Julian’s Hawks offer: Does a one-for-one swap, say Tony Amonte for Keith Tkachuk, move the needle? Amonte isn’t that much older than Tkachuk, and he’s scored over 30 goals twice in his career. Winnipeg would get a goal-scoring winger in return for theirs. Could be a pretty fair trade.

Mark’s Jets offer: At the time of the offer sheet, Tkachuk was merely very good — 41 goals in 84 games in 1993-94, followed by 22 goals in the 48-game lockout season of 1994-95 — not yet utterly dominant. So Jeremy Roenick or Chris Chelios are not reasonable asks here.

With that in mind, the Jets request promising 24-year-old Tony Amonte, who had not yet broken into stardom and recent first-round pick Sergei Krivokrasov, coming off a solid but unspectacular rookie campaign. Winnipeg is betting on upside (and cheap labor) here.

Arbitrator Sean says: Pack your stuff, Tony Amonte. The question here is whether he’ll have company in Krivokrasov. Given that Tkachuk hasn’t hit his HHOF stride yet, I think the Jets are getting greedy here. Hawks win, and send Tony Amonte to the Jets.

How history changes: Not enough for the Jets, sadly, who take Amonte to Phoenix with them. But Tkachuk never gets to Arizona, meaning his kids aren’t born there and never decide they love warm weather more than anything.

1997: Avalanche vs. Rangers for Joe Sakic

The situation: The Rangers are getting older and trying to keep their Cup window open by luring a Stanley Cup-winning, 100-point-getting, super-leader of a player via an offer sheet to Joe Sakic. The Avs are one year removed from a title but still finding their financial footing, and in a world where they aren’t saved by a Harrison Ford movie, we have to be creative through trade.

Julian’s Rangers offer: We’re not flipping Wayne Gretzky in a trade. But how about scoring winger and fellow 100-point getter Luc Robitaille? The numbers have trailed a little, but he can still be an elite goalscorer if you need him. We’re looking to move him, anyway. This trade might be a bit more packed. But we could do Robitaille and youngster Niklas Sundstrom, coming off a 24-goal season, in exchange for Sakic? Colorado gets a playoff-experienced forward and a youngster with potential.

Mark’s Avalanche offer: Oh, you want one of the very best players in the league, do you? A guy one year removed from the Conn Smythe Trophy? A guy with four 100-point seasons under his belt? A guy who’s just turning 28 years old? A guy we drafted and developed into a superstar? A guy who led us to the Stanley Cup in our very first year in a new city, entrenching us as a viable market in perpetuity? Yeah, I bet you do.

It’ll cost ya.

Give me Brian Leetch. Straight up. The reigning Norris Trophy winner. Same age. Best at his position.

Arbitrator Sean says: I kind of love this one, since it’s the closest we’ll get to the classic Blues/Devils Stevens case. One side is offering some perfectly good players. The other is swinging for the fences on a blue-line stud. It was so much fun the first time that I have to lean on arbitrator precedent here. The Avalanche win and are awarded Leetch.

How history changes: Sakic leaves Colorado as a greedy villain instead of still being a franchise icon to this day. Leetch might be enough to keep the Avs in contention, although you wonder if his presence means they never bother to trade for OGWAC Ray Bourque.

1998: Red Wings vs. Hurricanes for Sergei Fedorov

The situation: The Hurricanes have just completed their first season since moving from Hartford. And they could use a big name to put butts in seats. How about the Russian dynamo, two-time Cup champion and Nike white-skate superstar Sergei Fedorov? That’ll do. Here’s a six-year, $38 million offer sheet.

Julian’s Hurricanes offer: The Canes were still years away from their 2002 Cup run, so the talent on the roster isn’t quite playoff-ready. But there are some decent parts. The offer is Gary Roberts, coming off a 20-goal season and a 21-year-old Jeff O’Neill, in exchange for the future Hall of Famer who could completely change the franchise’s fortunes.

Mark’s Wings offer: Do you know how many Little Caesars $5 pizzas the Ilitch family had to sell to cover $28 million for what turned out to be 43 games of Sergei Fedorov in 1997-98 thanks to this ridiculously front-loaded deal? Whatever. Worth every pepperoni.

Detroit had to eat that poison pill because Carolina simply didn’t have anyone in the same stratosphere as Fedorov. There’s virtually no combination of 1997-98 Hurricanes that adds up to Fedorov in the aggregate. But it’ll start with Keith Primeau, an intriguing successor to Igor Larionov as a Selke-caliber No. 2 center. Throw in Gary Roberts, who fits Detroit’s whole “really good on-the-verge-of-old guy” vibe. And Carolina’s 1998 first-round pick, too.

Arbitrator Sean says: Man, Roberts really would have been a great Red Wing, wouldn’t he? He is now, and he’ll be taking the future O-Dawg with him, because the Hurricanes will get Gary Roberts and Jeff O’Neill.

How history changes: Do the Wings win Cups in 1998 and 2002 without Fedorov? Can Carolina make the investment work? Does O’Neill spend so much time with Roberts that he gets completely shredded?

2007: Sabres vs. Oilers for Thomas Vanek

The situation: Approximately two weeks before the Edmonton Oilers successfully offer-sheeted forward Dustin Penner from the Anaheim Ducks, they tendered an even bigger offer to Sabres forward and 40-goal scorer Thomas Vanek.

Believe it or not, there was a time when it looked like Vanek might be the Next Big Thing in the NHL. Scoring 43 goals as a 22-year-old in the mid-2000s will have that effect. The Sabres were already in a defensive posture after losing Daniel Briere and Chris Drury to free agency, so not only were they desperate, they were surely ticked off by this offer sheet.

Julian’s Oilers offer: Instead of a trade offer, we will have Oilers GM Kevin Lowe fight Sabres GM Darcy Regier at a barn of your choosing I’m offering Joffrey Lupul and first-round pick Rob Schremp in exchange for Vanek.

Mark’s Sabres offer: Buffalo here targets the Oilers’ most exciting young players — Joffrey Lupul, a 23-year-old high-first-rounder who still seemed destined for a productive career, and Aleš Hemský, a 24-year-old first-rounder just a year removed from a 77-point season. Tack on a first-round pick and we’ll call it a deal.

(That all three of those players never really realized their potential makes it particularly appropriate for an Oilers-Sabres trade. No one will be truly happy, as is these two teams’ destinies.)

Arbitrator Sean says: This is a fun one because I think it’s the most obvious case yet where both teams are getting greedy. That’s how the system is supposed to work, of course, but it’s nice to see the gloves off.

It makes for a tough call for me, since neither of these offers is especially fair. I’ll lean to the Oilers’ side, since it’s 2007 and we don’t know whether either Lupul or Schremp ever truly hit their ceiling, so compensation is set at Joffrey Lupul and Rob Schremp.

How history changes: Honestly, I think the main thing is the lack of a barn fight.

2012: Predators vs. Flyers for Shea Weber

The situation: Looking to flex their big-market muscle, the Flyers dropped a massive 14-year, $110-million offer sheet for the 26-year-old Weber. In the days that followed, there was a legitimate question over whether the Predators could match if they wanted to.

They ultimately did, a pivotal moment for the Predators, who didn’t want to be, pardon the pun, prey for big-market teams and drew a very expensive (and very long) line in the sand here. But at the time, it was no sure thing.

(Fun fact: This contract finally expired earlier this month, just days before the Flyers tendered their offer sheet for Carlsson.)

Julian’s Flyers offer: Weber will fit right into the Broad Street Bullies culture while still keeping their Stanley Cup ambitions open in the short term. We might need to part with some young pieces to make this happen: Defenseman Matt Carle, winger James van Riemsdyk and 24-goal scoring rookie Matt Read were all promising parts of the Flyers back then. But a move like this could secure Weber while also holding onto the Flyers’ top-line players of Claude Giroux, Scotty Hartnell and Daniel Brière.

Mark’s Predators offer: The biggest problem here for Nashville is Philly was going after its best defenseman — one of the very best in the world — and didn’t have much on the blue line to offer in exchange (which is, why, you know, they tried to sign Weber in the first place). Nashville would have no interest in a declining Chris Pronger or Kimmo Timonen.

In looking for a fair trade here, Nashville — coming off a 104-point season — would have to decide whether it is still in win-now mode or trying to retool on the fly. Having just won a playoff series for the first time a year earlier, it’d be a tough sell to a small market to take a big step back. So while the smart trade here is going after young, cheap rising stars such as 19-year-old Sean Couturier and 22-year-old Jakub Voráček, the play here is to go right for the top. You want our top guy? We want your top guy. Claude Giroux, just entering his prime, coming off a 93-point season and a top-five Hart Trophy finish. The trade is one-for-one.

Arbitrator Sean says: It’s nice to see Mark go back to the Stevens strategy, but this time I think I have to err on the side of volume. The Flyers’ offer is accepted, sending Matt Carle, James van Reimsdyk and Matt Read to Nashville.

How history changes: The Flyers are probably ultimately happy with the signing, but the rest of us lose out because this hour would have been less fun.

2013: Avalanche vs. Flames for Ryan O’Reilly

The situation: A young center who can already play at both ends, Ryan O’Reilly was coming off a career-best 55-point season while leading the Avalanche at the age of 20. O’Reilly would’ve been the front-line star the Flames could’ve leaned on for a decade, maybe more, and the face of the team’s upward climb from an eventual rebuild. (They weren’t exactly at that point yet, as mainstays Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff were still on the roster when this happened.)

The Flames took their swing on an offer sheet that the Avalanche almost instantly matched.

Julian’s Flames offer: The irony of completing a trade for O’Reilly in this exercise is that the Flames failing to complete a trade with the Avalanche for O’Reilly is what led to this offer sheet in the first place. In exchange for O’Reilly, the Flames offer defenseman Dennis Wideman and winger Alex Tanguay.

One more thing: Does O’Reilly still have to clear waivers if this trade goes through?

Mark’s Avalanche offer: Bringing Tanguay home to Denver is appealing, but he and Iginla are bigger names than they are players at this stage of their careers. This almost certainly is the hindsight talking, but Colorado demands 23-year-old two-way center Mikael Backlund in return for 22-year-old two-way center O’Reilly. And a first-round pick.

All this fuss over a fourth-year player who had never scored more than 18 goals or 55 points in a season? Well, it was already clear that O’Reilly was evolving into a terrific two-way center, the kind you can build around, and them cowboys up yonder were wise enough to see it and try to rustle him away.

Arbitrator Sean says: I perked up at Tanguay’s name, but he was in clear decline here. I’ll rule in favor of the Avs, who’ll be awarded Mikael Backlund and a first.

And yes, O’Reilly now has to go through waivers.

How history changes: If O’Reilly is in Calgary instead of Colorado and later Buffalo, do the Blues ever trade for him in time to win their only Stanley Cup?

2019: Hurricanes vs. Canadiens for Sebastian Aho

The situation: The first salvo in an offer sheet back-and-forth that led to the Hurricanes tendering an offer sheet to then-Canadiens youngster Jesperi Kotkaniemi two years later. Aho would’ve been the flashiest player on a Canadiens team reliant on Carey Price’s goaltending and leading scorers Max Domi, Tomas Tatar and Brendan Gallagher, and they reportedly felt that the Hurricanes could be financially vulnerable to a big offer. Well, maybe just an offer.

Julian’s Canadiens offer: You know what? Why not speed up the timeline? Kotkaniemi still had a ton of promise as an 18-year-old first-round pick. In fact, the Canadiens could offer up two first-round pick centres in Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Ryan Poehling for Aho. Both had tons of potential at the time.

Mark’s Hurricanes offer: While it would be amusing to target Kotkaniemi here, a more realistic focal point would be 25-year-old Phil Danault, who was just emerging as a Selke-caliber center. That’s not nearly enough on its own, though, so Carolina also requests Tomáš Tatar to make up for the loss of Micheal Ferland in free agency.

Side note: This is merely a thought exercise, not real life, yet I’m starting to get angry and defensive assuming the position of every team potentially losing players here. I’m starting to see why teams were so reluctant to use offer sheets for so long. It’s very mean! The Canadiens are trying to make my franchise center their franchise centre?

Arbitrator Sean says: I appreciate your whimsy, Julian. Court rules for Montreal, who’ll surrender Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Ryan Poehling.

How history changes: The Hurricanes probably don’t win this year’s Cup. They might not even make it there after facing Aho and the Canadiens in the conference final.

2026: Ducks vs. Flyers for Leo Carlsson

The situation: I know it was a long time ago, so feel free to refresh your memory.

Julian’s Flyers offer: Our time machine finally brings us to the present day, where Brière has tendered his offer sheet to Carlsson. His steady progression as a 20-year-old bodes well for his future and for the Flyers’ own, with the hopes of cementing themselves as a consistent playoff presence.

Let’s see if there’s a way to make this trade happen without severely hampering their future. Centre Christian Dvorak and winger Noah Cates could serve as compensation for the Ducks in exchange for Carlsson.

Mark’s Ducks offer: Pat Verbeek was never known for his subtlety on the ice, and he’s not about to start now. The Flyers don’t have a No. 1 center, which explains the offer sheet. So instead, he goes right for the jugular, demanding both Porter Martone and Matvei Michkov. This leaves Anaheim with a gaping hole at center, and an abundance of wings, but it’s not like the Ducks are going to want Trevor Zegras back. And with $18 million off the books, surely there’s a center out there to be found. As for Philly, enjoy your cap hell.

Arbitrator Sean says: The Flyers are almost daring me to burn them here. And sure enough, Mark picks the right time to swoop in with a just-reasonable-enough overpay. You know what, we didn’t bring this system back to play it safe. I’ll rule for the Ducks, who get Porter Martone and Matvei Michkov in return for Carlsson.

How history changes: My house is now on fire. And the fallout of this ruling makes the NHL ditch our beloved RFA system once and for all.