Хуутын босогчид Улаан тэнгисийн умардыг чиглэсэн тээврийн хэрэгслүүдэд цохилт өгөх хүрээгээ тэлж, Хүрмузийн хоолойн нөхцөл байдал хурц хэвээр байна

The Houthi rebels of Yemen say they are widening the scope of their attacks on Saudi shipping to the northern Red Sea to prevent transits through the Suez Canal. The expansion of Houthi kinetic activities there comes amid mixed messages about efforts to open up the Strait of Hormuz, largely closed by Iran after it was hit by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28.

The Iranian-backed Houthis already struck Saudi ships in the southern part of that body of water and refineries along the northern portion after imposing a blockade on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, leading several oil tankers in the Red Sea to avoid that route in favor of the Suez Canal. The expansion of the Houthi campaign against Saudi shipping began with an attack off the port of Yanbu on the NCC Wafa, a Saudi oil tanker, the rebel group claimed today.

“By God’s grace, the Yemeni Armed Forces succeeded in striking the Saudi oil vessel Wafa in the northern Red Sea off the area of Yanbu, using a number of ballistic missiles — and the hit was precise, by God’s grace,” Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed on X. “In tightening the naval blockade on the Saudi enemy at Bab al-Mandeb in the southern Red Sea, the Saudi enemy has moved to reroute its oil vessels toward the northern Red Sea. The Yemeni Armed Forces therefore affirm that their operations will continue and escalate in targeting Saudi oil vessels in the northern Red Sea, to close off every route and prevent passage, in order to cement the ‘blockade for blockade’ equation.”

There was no immediate statement issued by the Saudis and TWZ cannot independently verify the Houthis’ claims.

As we have frequently detailed, a Houthi blockade of the BAM threatens to add far greater pressure on oil exports from the Middle East, already drastically affected by the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. The kingdom has diverted millions of barrels of oil per day through pipelines to its Yanbu port on the Red Sea in an effort to minimize the energy shortages due to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf. As we have noted, the Suez Canal is an important artery in addition to the BAM for ships carrying Saudi energy supplies, though this route drastically increases the cost of exports to Asia given the need to travel around Africa. While tankers carrying Saudi oil through the BAM have been greatly reduced, they are still making their way through the Suez Canal. But that could change if the Houthis start making that route perilous too, which would put a tighter energy squeeze on the west, including Europe, as well as the rest of the globe. They could also continue to attack Saudi oil terminals on the Red Sea, making shipping a moot point if the transfer stations are not operational.

The closing of the BAM to Saudi oil traffic, and now threats to the transit route north to the canal, also raise the specter of the U.S. having to get as involved as it did during the previous Houthi campaign against shipping that ended last September, which could pull resources away from Iranian-focused operations. It’s possible Egypt would have a major problem with such actions too, as it would impact the Canal’s revenue and freedom of movement. This could widen the conflict.

Meanwhile, there are mixed signals about whether the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened to traffic and under what conditions.

“The U.S., Iran and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. aiming for a Wednesday announcement,” Axios reported on Wednesday, citing two regional sources and a U.S. official. “According to two regional sources, the deal under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the Hormuz strait, which could be extended.”

All inbound traffic of ships through the strait and into the Gulf would go in a northern lane through Iranian waters, the publication noted. All outbound traffic through the strait and into the Arabian Sea would go in a southern lane through Omani waters, in coordination with Iran. In addition, there would be no tolls or fees charged during this interim two-month period and the parties would work to clear the median lane of the Strait of mines within 30 days.

“After the median lane is cleared, it would be used for inbound and outbound traffic under the terms of a permanent arrangement to be negotiated between Oman and Iran,” the outlet added.

The deal described by Axios largely mirrors the Iran-Oman negotiations we reported on yesterday, with the main differences being the involvement of the U.S. and no imposition of fees. As we noted, both Iran and the U.S. are currently following a bifurcated traffic pattern, with the U.S. Navy recommending transits close to the Omani coastline and Iran pushing shipping toward its shores. The middle of the Strait has been deemed too hazardous because of the threat primarily from mines.

Speaking to Fox News Tuesday night, President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran have been ongoing but that Tehran faces severe consequences if it fails to open up the Strait.

“If they back out again, they are going to get hit really hard,” Trump proclaimed.

The president has insisted that Iran must fully open the vital chokepoint or face new and more intense attacks that would include power plants, other civilian infrastructure and even strikes on leadership.

There are indications from Iran, however, that any deal to open the Strait is between Iran and Oman and that it might not result in a quick resolution.

The official Iranian Press TV stated on X “that any potential bilateral agreement between Tehran and Muscat regarding maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will not automatically lead to the immediate re-opening of the strategic waterway.”

Reuters on Wednesday concurred that any deal to open the Strait may not be as imminent as Trump has claimed.

“A proposed deal between Iran and Oman would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz,” the outlet wrote, citing a senior Iranian source and two regional officials. “Despite the apparent step towards yielding to Iranian demands, the sources pushed back against assertions by U.S. President Donald Trump that ‌a deal reopening the strait was imminent, saying important details still had to be agreed.”

Regardless of negotiations, U.S. Central Command stated on X that the Strait of Hormuz southern route along the coast of Oman remains open and that over the past three months, “U.S. forces have assisted more than 1,000 vessels in successfully transiting the strait despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, and these transits continue today.”

Between Houthi actions in the Red Sea region and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, commercial traffic in both areas continues to be greatly reduced, though transits through the BAM are spiking upwards, according to MarineTraffic.

The latest “data highlights how headline volumes can obscure underlying maritime risk. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell from 10 to eight on 4 August, with seven vessels exiting the Middle East Gulf and only one entering,” MarineTraffic stated on X. “Five of the eight movements used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, while no Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme crossings were recorded.”

Meanwhile, “Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose from 25 to 34, including 18 vessels entering the Red Sea and 16 exiting,” MarineTraffic added. “Yet four dark transits, two sanctioned crossings and six shadow fleet movements indicate that visibility, routing concentration and compliance exposure remain central concerns.”

Amid all this, oil prices have actually fallen, with Brent Crude now trading at slightly over $79 a barrel, down from nearly $85 per barrel yesterday. Still, there are many reasons Trump is pushing a rekindled effort to find a diplomatic off-ramp to a conflict that has killed 18 American troops, wounded hundreds more, drained U.S. weapons stocks and roiled international relations and global financial markets. In addition to the global economic pressures this conflict has created, it is unpopular among the American electorate and crucial mid-term elections will take place in November. Even Fox News, generally supportive of Trump, has released polling data that shows a “majority of voters oppose U.S. military action, and nearly two thirds think the conflict will last at least a year.”

The latest Fox News survey “finds 56% oppose U.S. military action against Iran, including 40% who “strongly” oppose.

How much these factors will play a role in Trump’s decision-making should become clearer over the next hours and days.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

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