NHL-ийн улирлын драфтын өмнөх хаалгачдын шилдэг сонголтууд болон анхаарах тамирчид

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Энэхүү мэдээ, нийтлэлийг хиймэл оюун боловсруулав.

Шинэ улирлын NHL-ийн драфтын өмнө багуудын хаалгачдын байрлалд хийх сонголт нь стратегийн хувьд чухал ач холбогдолтой байна.

Коннор Хеллебайк, Андрей Василевский, Игорь Шестеркин, Логан Томпсон, Илья Сорокин болон Жереми Свейман нар энэ улирлын хаалгачдын гол найдварууд буюу “асууд” хэмээн нэрлэгдэж байна. Хеллебайк солилцооны хүсэлт гаргасан ч аль ч багт очсон өндөр үзүүлэлт үзүүлэх боломжтой бол Василевский болон Шестеркин нар тогтвортой тоглолтоороо багтаа найдвартай ар тал болсоор байна. Өнгөрсөн улиралд 35.6 гоол хаах тооцоолсон үзүүлэлтээр тэргүүлсэн Логан Томпсон болон хамгаалалтын бүтэц нь сайжирч буй Илья Сорокин нар мөн драфтын эхний эгнээнд бичигдэж байна.

Дэд түвшний хаалгачдын хувьд Жейк Оттингер, Жет Гривз, Спенсер Найт болон Карел Веймелка нар багийнхаа амжилтад чухал нөлөө үзүүлэхээр байна. Веймелка өнгөрсөн улиралд 64 тоглолтод оролцсон ачаалал ихтэй хаалгачдын нэг байсан бол Гривз, Найт нар карьерынхаа дээд амжилтыг тогтоон 55 тоглолтод оролцжээ. Шинээр өсөн дэвжиж буй Якуб Добеш, Жеспер Валлстедт, Дэн Владар болон Жоэль Хофер нар өөрсдийн багтаа үндсэн хаалгачийн байр суурийг эзлэхээр өрсөлдөж байна.

Маккензи Блэквуд болон Якоб Маркстром нарыг энэ улиралд амжилтаа эргүүлэн авчрах боломжтой тамирчдаар нэрлэж байна. Харин Брэндон Бусси болон Ярослав Аскаров нарыг тоглолтын хувьд тодорхойгүй, эрсдэлтэй ч өндөр нөлөө үзүүлэх боломжтой “wild card” сонголтуудад тооцож байна. Эдгээр хаалгачдын тоглолтын үр дүн нь багийн хамгаалалтын бүтэц болон тоглолтын ачааллаас ихээхэн хамаарах төлөвтэй байна.

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This season’s fantasy hockey cheat sheet is here (and it’s perfect). So, it’s officially time to start preparing for the draft. And this year, that starts with one of the most volatile positions to assess: goaltenders.

It’s tricky from a fantasy context, too, because it’s so easy to overprioritize one position and player. A goalie’s importance all depends on league scoring and settings — some managers can legitimately afford to wait for a starter below the elite tier. Others need to value netminders earlier, and higher in the draft. Some leagues call for a goalie who wins above all else, while other managers need high-volume saves.

Let’s whip through different types and levels of starting goalies for this upcoming season.

The aces

Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets

Hellebuyck is coming off of one of the worst regular seasons of his career, and it’s not even clear where he will play this year after requesting a trade. Still, he is worth betting on no matter where he plays. It’s hard to see Hellebuyck accepting a trade to a team too far outside of the contender’s circle, so wins shouldn’t be a concern. And his track record is long enough to think a bounce back is incoming. Aging is a concern, but his injury and surroundings likely had more to do with last season’s depressed numbers.

Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning

While Vasilevskiy’s postseason numbers are starting to raise red flags, his regular-season play shouldn’t. He is coming off another strong season, saving 23.6 goals above expected. The big question in Tampa Bay is whether Father Time is starting to come for some of its core players and if there is enough support to make up for that. But even as currently constructed with those concerns, this looks like a playoff-caliber team. So Vasilevskiy should be counted on for great numbers and wins once again.

Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers

The Rangers made some solid moves to improve their defense this offseason, which should give Shesterkin more support in front of the blue paint. In theory, that should help clean up his more traditional stats and lead to wins. But even if this team is absolutely chaotic in its own zone again, expect Shesterkin to keep racking up the saves. No matter how disastrous the Rangers have been, he has consistently been a difference-maker behind them.

Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals

Not everyone bought into Thompson’s 2024-25 breakout campaign in Washington. His play style is pretty unorthodox and erratic, and he obviously hasn’t had a ton of starting success to date. But last season he proved that his first year with the Capitals wasn’t a flash in the pan. He led all goalies with a GSAx of 35.6. And now, after some savvy offseason deals, the team should have more goal support on the other end of his ice. Thompson is another reliable starter to draft.

Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders

Sorokin had a fantastic season — until he didn’t. His end-of-year collapse hurt his numbers at a pretty crucial time of the year for both the Islanders and fantasy managers.

But two things are worth keeping in mind: He stood on his head behind one of the worst defensive teams in the league last year, and that eventually caught up to him, and while the Islanders didn’t make enough needle-moving moves this summer, they do have Peter DeBoer behind the bench.

DeBoer isn’t a perfect coach, but he generally instills more defensive structure. So if the Islanders can clean up play in front of Sorokin and one of the Islanders’ backups can take a few games off his plate, he should level right back up.

Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins

Swayman, on the other hand, will probably go without much defensive support this year in Boston. The Bruins’ lack of speed on the backend seriously burned them against the Sabres in Round 1 last spring, and management didn’t address that enough this summer. But Swayman proved he can carry this team despite that — his high level of play was the driving force behind his 31 wins and Boston’s playoff-caliber 100-point season.

No.1 goalies

Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars

Drop down a tier, and there are a handful of other solid goalies worth betting on. Oettinger’s numbers didn’t stack up to most of the above aces last season. The team in front of him had some suspect moments below the surface in front of him, too. But Dallas is a projected contender, and Oettinger is still a quality goaltender, which should help him contribute across the board. The key is picking him at the right time — this isn’t a goalie to draft too early; prioritize some of those aces first.

Jet Greaves, Columbus Blue Jackets

After emerging as a goalie to watch late in 2024-25, Greaves backed up his play with another great season in Columbus. And if the team can keep trending up in front of him, he should be able to sustain success acrosshis second full NHL season. The Blue Jackets improved defensively, limiting more shots and scoring chances against, after Rick Bowness took over behind the bench.

Spencer Knight, Chicago Blackhawks

Knight has shown what he’s capable of in different environments over the past few seasons. After thriving behind a stout Panthers team, he proved he can also excel behind a team with a lot more defensive warts in Chicago. But this year, he’s facing a different level of pressure, as the Blackhawks try to turn the corner, which could put some strain on his play. Even if the wins aren’t there yet for Chicago, expect to see a lot of Knight in goal and a lot of saves. Knight and Greaves both leveled up to career-high 55 appearances last season.

Karel Vejmelka, Utah Mammoth

Speaking of high-volume starters, Vejmelka led the way last year with 64 appearances. Utah’s acquisition of Sebastian Cossa should help lighten that unsustainably high burden. But unless Cossa absolutely crushes it out of the gate, or the fatigue adds up for Vejmelka, it’s hard to see anyone else starting games down the stretch. That’s one of the big benefits for managers here — Vejmelka’s numbers may not stack up to some of the greats, but his deployment late in the season could be extremely useful.

Risers

Jakub Dobes, Montreal Canadiens

After a streaky first half of last season, Dobes emerged as the starter the Canadiens needed. His 14 goals saved above expected in 19 games down the stretch ranked fifth in the league, and he carried that momentum into the playoffs. While he had a couple of shaky games, he generally rebounded well.

But it’s one thing to take starting reps in 19 games down the stretch and 19 postseason games, and it’s another to do that across an 84-game season. So while Dobes is someone to bet on behind a rising Canadiens’ team that should be right back in the playoff picture, don’t be surprised if he has to navigate some slip-ups, too.

Jesper Wallstedt, Minnesota Wild

After Filip Gustavsson’s late-season struggles opened the door to the 23-year-old taking over, Wallstedt ran with the opportunity. And he should have a great chance to build on that early in the season, while his goalie partner is recovering from hip surgery. It’s tough to project what happens later in the season. It’s possible that Gustavsson gets healthy and takes over as a 1A. It’s also possible that his recovery takes more time, and Wallstedt holds the starter’s net in the long run. The latter could also struggle in expanded usage. What helps here is Minnesota’s defensive structure, which should keep Wallstedt pretty insulated. So don’t expect him to be a volume saver, but if your league calls for having a solid save percentage or goals against, he could be a fit.

Dan Vladar, Philadelphia Flyers

Speaking of stingy defensive teams, there’s the Flyers, who got a surprising boost from Vladar down the stretch and in the playoffs. After having his best season at age 29, he is obviously a late-bloomer. The fact that he doesn’t have a long track record of playing at this level hurts his stock, too. But don’t discount his impact throughout Philadelphia’s Cinderella run and keep in mind how much this team should improve this season thanks to internal growth alone.

Joel Hofer, St. Louis Blues

Jordan Binnington took a lot of the spotlight last year, thanks to his starting role for Team Canada at the Olympics. But in St. Louis, Hofer took the reins as the starter, and he crushed it. His season-long numbers were good enough to jump into the top 10 in goals saved above expected, and a lot of his production came from his efforts when NHL play resumed in late February. From then on, he earned a league-high GSAx of 16.1 in 16 games. So unless his play craters, or Binnington is sharp enough to steal games, expect Hofer to start in St. Louis.

Bounce-back candidates

MacKenzie Blackwood, Colorado Avalanche

There’s a handful of rebounds to watch between the blue paint, like Joey Daccord in Seattle. Dustin Wolf has the skill and pedigree to take a step forward after a pretty average second season. The Ducks are betting on Lukas Dostal to find his form again, too, even though their blue line looks incredibly shaky again. The former two don’t have the backing of playoff-caliber rosters, though, and probably won’t be early picks in the draft, or No.1s for managers in shallow leagues.

Instead, I’m going to focus in on two goalies on projected contenders. The first is Blackwood, whose injuries and inconsistent play lost him the starting role to Scott Wedgewood. It’s entirely possible that Wedgewood either equally rotates with Blackwood, or keeps hold of the starting share. But their bodies of work point to a potential flip in usage. Blackwood’s an athletic goalie who has stronger results in a 1A or starting capacity, while Wedgewood, who is 34 years old, is generally best in a backup or 1B role. So it should create an interesting battle this year — it wouldn’t hurt to draft either goalie as a No.2 option. But don’t be surprised if Blackwood finds his edge again this season, either.

Jacob Markstrom, Florida Panthers

Similar to Blackwood, it’s not clear what Markstrom’s role will be in Florida. He could be the starter, play an equal role, or even a backup to Akira Schmid. It’s easy to assume one of the latter options, with his recent play in mind. His New Jersey era did not go according to plan, and his game may have just aged poorly. Sometimes, goalie declines are steep and erratic. But he also isn’t the first goalie to struggle with the Devils, specifically. New general manager Sunny Mehta addressed the goalie coaching staff early this offseason for a reason.

The Panthers, on the other hand, have done a good job managing their crease. Their defensive structure is obviously a part of it, and with a healthy Aleksander Barkov, it should be a lot better this year. But it’s bigger than that, considering how many goalies have come in and excelled in a tandem or backup role. Florida’s program could work its magic on Markstrom, allowing him to find his game again.

Wild cards

Brandon Bussi, Carolina Hurricanes

It may seem odd to have Bussi, a reigning Stanley Cup champ, as a wild card. It may seem even more so considering how much Carolina tends to control play. But there are a few reasons for it.

The first is the challenge of playing behind the Canes, a team that doesn’t give up a ton. But when those scoring chances come, it can be tough for goalies to make timely saves if they aren’t in a real rhythm. Bussi’s ups and downs from last season are an important factor, too, because before he entered the Stanley Cup Final cold and ultimately helped backstop the team to a championship, his regular season had two very different parts. There was the beginning of the year when he emerged as a reliable starter, and the second half when he seriously struggled to string together quality starts. That volatility makes next season a little more difficult to project. Then comes the question mark of ice-time distribution. Frederik Andersen (another wild card in Edmonton) won’t take his playing time this year, but Bussi still has to earn it over Pytor Kochetkov.

Yaroslav Askarov, San Jose Sharks

As mentioned, the Oilers’ entire goalie situation is a wild card. So is the Penguins’, since it’s not clear if Sergei Murashov is ready to take over as starter. Go north to Toronto, and there are some questions about Sergei Bobrovsky with his age and last season’s drop-off in mind. But another fascinating wild card is on a rising team that has become a must-watch: the Sharks.

Askarov had his moments last season behind one of the leakiest defenses in the league. Go back to last November when he literally saved the Sharks’ terrible penalty kill. But as much progress and skill as he showed at times, he also had moments when he was too active and aggressive, and those overcommitments made his playing time a lot more difficult than it needed to be. As entertaining as his style is, he doesn’t have that reliability factor yet. Maybe he hits the next level this year and solidifies a core position for San Jose. It just won’t be easy behind what projects to be a really weak blue line. If saves are a league priority above all else, maybe Askarov is your guy. But if your league prioritizes wins and penalizes goals against heavily, he may not be an ideal No.1 option.

Data via NaturalStatTrick and HockeyStats.

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  1. Таалагдсан хаалгачдын нэрс их байна, тэдний энэ улиралд ямар онцлог чанарууд байдаг вэ? Хэллебуйк боломжийн байдалд байгааг бодоход, өөр багт очвол ямар үр дүнтэй байж ч болох юм уу? Драфт эхлэхэд энэ бүх мэдлэг ямар нэмэртэй байх бол?

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