Никола Йокич болон Виктор Вембаньяма нар NBA-ийн тоглогчдын бооцооны шугамд үзүүлэх нөлөөллийн чансааг тэргүүлж байна.
NBA-ийн 74 шилдэг тоглогчийн бооцооны шугамд үзүүлэх нөлөөллийг тодорхойлох судалгаанд Денвер Наггетсийн төвийн тоглогч Никола Йокич 5.44 оноогоор гурав дахь жилдээ дараалан нэгдүгээр байрт бичигдлээ. Түүний араас Сан Антонио Спөрсийн Виктор Вембаньяма 4.86 оноогоор удаалж, ялгааг улам бүр багасгаж байна. Эхний таван тоглогчийн жагсаалтад Лука Дончич (4.58), Шэй Гилжеус-Александер (4.48), Яннис Антетокунмпо (4.36) нар багтжээ.
Энэхүү судалгаагаар тоглогч бэртлийн жагсаалтад ороогүй байх үед тоглолтын өмнө хасагдвал бооцооны шугам хэрхэн өөрчлөгдөх нөхцөлийг шинжилсэн байна. Тоглогчийн нөлөөллийг тодорхойлохдоо өрсөлдөгч баг, улирлын үе шат, дасгалжуулагчийн ур чадвар, сэлгээний тоглогчдын хүч болон талбайн давуу тал зэрэг олон хүчин зүйлийг харгалзан үзжээ.
Шинэ баг болох Филадельфи 76-д нэгдсэн Леброн Жэймсийн бооцооны шугамд үзүүлэх нөлөө 1.92 оноо болж буурсан нь түүний нас болон багийн бусад хүчирхэг тоглогчидтой холбоотой юм. Филадельфи 76 нь нийт таван тоглогч нь тус бүр дор хаяж нэг онооны нөлөө үзүүлдэг үзүүлэлтээр лигийг тэргүүлж байна.
Шинэхэн тоглогчдоос Камерон Бүүзер ирээдүйд бооцооны шугамд хамгийн их нөлөө үзүүлэх тоглогчоор нэрлэгдлээ. Тэрээр NBA-ийн оны шилдэг шинэ тоглогчийн шагналыг хүртэх хамгийн өндөр магадлалтай нэр дэвшигчээр тодорчээ.
Дэлгэрэнгүй эх сурвалжийг харах
Эх сурвалжийг нээх ↓
Over the summer, I asked a group of oddsmakers to rank all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks by their value to the point spread. While there are some other NFL skill position players — and offensive linemen and defensive players, as well — who have value to the spread, the NBA is a whole different ballgame, as only five players are on the court for a team at one time.
In a league where figuring out which players are playing on any given night is a daily challenge, an NBA superstar can have an outsized impact on the point spread — and it’s valuable for bettors to know how much oddsmakers believe those players are worth.
To help determine this, I asked a group of five oddsmakers to rank the NBA’s most important players against the spread.
Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Basketball league for the 2026-27 NBA season
The prompt I gave was: “If a player wasn’t on the injury report and then was declared out before the game, how much would the line move?”
There are many factors that go into making these numbers for oddsmakers, but here are a few:
-
Opponent
-
Is the game in the regular season or playoffs?
-
Strength of head coach
-
Strength of the player’s backup
-
Relative strength of the rest of the roster
-
Home-court advantage
I sent oddsmakers a list of 74 NBA players and requested that they rank the point-spread value of each one. Then, I averaged the five values together to get a final number for every player.
This is the third year I’ve done this exercise and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić has been No. 1 all three times — and the only player worth more than five points against the spread every season. However, San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama is certainly closing the gap.
It’s also the lowest LeBron James (T-32, 1.92 points ATS) has been over that time span, both due to his age and since his new team — the Philadelphia 76ers — have five players (James, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown and VJ Edgecombe) all worth at least a point against the number, diminishing James’ value.
Here are the most valuable players in the NBA, ranked by their value against the spread.
Top 5 NBA players by ATS value
1. Nikola Jokić, Nuggets (5.44 points ATS)
2. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs (4.86)
3. Luka Doncic, Lakers (4.58)
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder (4.48)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Heat (4.36)
Jokić and Wembanyama were both at the top of every oddsmakers ballot, with three favoring Jokić, one favoring Wembanyama and one tie. Every oddsmaker had them worth between four and six points against the number.
“On the same exact team, we’d have Wemby a little higher,” one oddsmaker told Yahoo Sports. “But the drop-off with Jokić off the court is so massive.”
Wembanyama won his first Defensive Player of the Year award last season — the first player to ever win unanimously — and became the youngest player to win the award at 22 years old. He led the league in blocks (197) and ranked fourth in rebounding (11.5 per game).
With James now in Philadelphia, Luka Doncic moved up to third, followed by SGA and Antetokounmpo. Doncic has been in the top six every year I’ve done this, and this is his highest value (4.58) in that time span — boosted by his outsized importance for a Lakers team that is now built around him.
SGA had the least variance among the five oddsmakers, with four valuing him at 4.5 points ATS and one at 4.4.
“There’s a lot of depth on that team,” an oddsmaker said about Oklahoma City, “But he’s still a two-time MVP and is going to move the line quite a bit.”
To his point, the Thunder have the league’s highest preseason win total at 62.5 and are co-favorites at +260 with the Spurs to win the title.
The only player in the top five on a completely new team, there was a bigger range among oddsmakers as to what Antetokounmpo’s value should be against the number.
“I don’t know how that’s going to work with Bam [Adebayo],” one oddsmaker opined. “Little bit of disagreement in the trading room — between 3.75 points and five for Giannis. I think this number is going to change early depending on how he performs with [Adebayo].
Other notable players
6. Steph Curry, Warriors (3.96)
9. Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves (3.48)
10. Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers (3.28)
11. Jalen Brunson, Knicks (3.26)
T-15. Kevin Durant, Rockets (2.80)
19. LeBron James, Lakers (2.79)
24. LaMelo Ball, Timberwolves (2.20)
T-36. LeBron James, 76ers (1.92)
Despite being the clear engine on a New York Knicks team that won the NBA championship last season, Brunson had nearly an identical value ATS (3.26 this year to 3.25 last year).
One oddsmaker said he bumped Brunson’s value up a half point due to his performance in the playoffs, but also noted that Brunson’s value had a lower ceiling due to his lack of defensive impact and because the Knicks are a “talented team.”
Haliburton was one of the tougher players to make a number for, and one oddsmaker noted that it’s likely Haliburton’s spread value will increase as the season progresses.
On the surface, seeing LeBron James as the 36th-most valuable NBA player against the number — tied with the Brooklyn Nets’ Michael Porter Jr. — seems like a misprint, but James is 41 years old and isn’t the focal point of the 76ers. Joel Embiid (2.84) and Tyrese Maxey (2.70) and the newly acquired Jaylen Brown (2.22) all had higher values against the number.
Several oddsmakers noted the difficulty of valuing players against the spread on the 76ers’ new team, and Philadelphia led all NBA teams with its five players being worth a total of 10.82 points against the number.
In terms of rookies, No. 3 overall pick Cam Boozer was the player oddsmakers mentioned as likely to be the most valuable ATS as the season went along. Boozer is the favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year (+250 at FanDuel), followed by the Bulls’ Caleb Wilson (+350), the Jazz’s Darryn Peterson (+450) and the Wizards’ AJ Dybantsa (+450).
“Boozer and Wilson will probably mean the most to their teams this season, spread-wise,” one oddsmaker told Yahoo Sports via email. “I could see them both being quite valuable by the end of the season.”
Full ranking of the top 74 NBA players against the spread
