NBA-ийн чөлөөт агентуудын зах зээл урьдынх шигээ идэвхтэй байхаа больжээ

Hello? Anyone here?

NBA free agency starts at 6 p.m. Eastern on June 30, but in the last decade, the prominence of this date has taken a serious nosedive.

The reason: Nobody good changes teams this way anymore. Rule changes on unrestricted free agency have incentivized both teams and players to agree to extensions long before they hit the open market, while on the demand side, operating as a cap space team is an increasingly onerous way to live compared to the advantages of using Bird rights and the non-taxpayer midlevel exception (NTMLE). Those two detriments to high-impact player movement are so hard-wired into the league that we barely have time left over to blame the tax aprons.

Last season, for instance, only one of my top 11 free agents changed teams in free agency (Myles Turner), and getting to that required the Milwaukee Bucks to move heaven and earth by waiving and stretching Damian Lillard and exhausting every possible means of using non-Bird free-agent rights and minimum-player exceptions to build the rest of the roster.

As a result, any movement we get from free agency is likely to come from the NBA’s senior-citizen class: 41-year-old LeBron James’ future in L.A. seems in some doubt, while 36-year-old whippersnapper James Harden seemed like he might be in a similar situation before his midseason trade to Cleveland.

We might have a lot of running in place this July. Maybe we get a surprise in the form of a gigantic bid for Austin Reaves or Jalen Duren that makes their current teams blink, but don’t count on it.

Besides James, the best unrestricted free agent on my board who seems to have a reasonable shot at changing teams is … Keon Ellis? Sandro Mamukelashvili?In fact, a lot of the players on my list might not become free agents at all, or will only do so as a ruse to arrive at their next already-agreed-upon contract with their current employer.

However, the threat of other teams offering a contract still matters, and because of that, the seven potential cap-room teams (Atlanta, Brooklyn, Chicago, Detroit, Memphis and both Los Angeles teams) will factor prominently in this summer’s calculus, even if just as a bogeyman for agents to use in negotiating contracts.

Cap space, however, is only half the problem. The next question in free agency is how to value players. That’s where I come in.

I developed a player valuation system called BORD$ (short for “Big Old Rating Dollars”) that uses analytics and playing time data from the last two seasons, projects values for the coming season based on a player’s age and performance and then converts the projected performance and playing time into a salary estimate based on the projected cap in 2026-27 of $165 million. (More on the methodology from this story five years ago.)

What follows is my list of this summer’s top 25 free agents (we’ll also have values for every realistic potential free agent at every position). I say “realistic” because there is a class of players I did not include: players with non-guaranteed contracts whose teams would be foolish to cut them (such as Detroit’s Duncan Robinson), or minimum team options that seem unlikely to be declined due to a team’s cap situation (such as Toronto’s Jamal Shead).

Following that revision, I was left with 24 players whom BORD$ values as being worth at least more than the non-taxpayer MLE, projected to be $15 million next season. It doesn’t mean that’s what they’ll get, but it’s a nice starting point for figuring out what might be “fair” in a more even market.

With that, here’s how BORD$ values the top 25. (Ages listed are as of June 30, the official start of free agency.)

Tier 1: Max guys

1. Jalen Duren, C, Detroit (restricted): $44,200,295

BORD$ is based on regular-season production, so it does not include Duren’s playoff performance. I think we can all agree his spring was just a wee bit underwhelming, as both Wendell Carter Jr. and Jarrett Allen outplayed him, and the Pistons often played better with him off the court.

Duren’s playoff PER of 13.8 was barely half his regular-season mark (26.0, sixth in the league). Lowlights included a minus-1.7 BPM, a modest 55.3 true shooting percentage after leading the league at 68.8 in the regular season and ending up on the business end of a Jamal Cain murder dunk in the first round against the Orlando Magic.

Because of that, I’d say we can lower that $44 million estimate. Duren is supermax-eligible after making the All-NBA Third Team, but even getting the lower max (five years, $239 million) coming off his rookie deal will be a challenge after the postseason he had. On the other hand, Duren is only 22 and coming off an All-Star regular season, and cap-room teams like Brooklyn and Chicago will be circling with offer sheets if the Pistons get cold feet. A five-year, $200 million deal would value him at $40 million a year and keep him in Detroit through much of his prime; that feels like a potential endpoint.

Tier 2: More than MLE, less than max

2. James Harden, PG, Cleveland (player option, partial guarantee): $36,396,260

Harden has a complicated contract structure that contains both a player option for $42 million and a partial guarantee that lets the Cavs sever him for just $13.3 million if he picks up the option.

You probably needn’t worry about either, as it is in both Harden’s and the Cavs’ interests to decline the option and ink a new deal, likely in the range of two years and $65 million to $70 million. That arrangement would slightly lessen the Cavs’ imposing salary obligations for the coming season while giving Harden a bit more long-term insurance (at least to the extent that’s possible entering an age-37 season). Either way, it would be stunning if he’s anywhere but Cleveland on opening night.

3. Austin Reaves, SG, Lakers (player option): $34,429,743

Reaves obviously will opt out of his current deal, which pays him a mere pittance at $14.9 million for 2026-27, and the Lakers can use his artificially low cap hold ($20.9 million) to fill the roster with cap room before coming back to sign him on a more market-appropriate contract. That landing point would seem about four years and $140 million, based on BORD$, for a 28-year-old who has defense and durability questions but also showed last season he can be a high-usage, lead initiator on offense.

The Lakers, however, may be forced to go higher. As one of the most prominent unrestricted free agents on the board, Reaves could command an over-the-top max offer from a talent-needy rival such as the Brooklyn Nets.

4. Isaiah Hartenstein, C, Oklahoma City (team option): $32,092,088

Hartenstein’s team option is for $28.5 million, which means in a normal situation, the Thunder might just pick up the option, or maybe pick it up and extend his contract off that number.

The reality of Oklahoma City’s financial situation may require a more delicate touch. One realistic approach would be for the Thunder to decline the option and re-sign Hartenstein to a long deal that spreads out the money over four or five years, even if the back end becomes an overpay. For example, declining the option and inking either a four-year, $110 million deal or a five-year, $140 million pact would shave about $4 million off his cap hit for 2026-27 and give the Thunder more wiggle room against the looming tax aprons.

5. LeBron James, PF, Lakers: $31,960,618

James is still an extremely valuable player, and my aging algorithm may underrate his potential contributions in 2026-27; we really have no data to work with as far as “high-usage forward entering his age-42 season” is concerned. At this point, he’s likely looking at a one-year deal (he can’t sign for more than three because of the over-38 rule), so the questions are about money (somewhat) and fit (quite a bit).

Resolving the latter part could require a major haircut on the former, as the type of teams that could both use James and have a reasonable chance of contending for something important are also not the type to have extra cap space lying around. Even a return to the Lakers is complicated, as paying him would take L.A. out of some cap-room scenarios that won’t be available to the Lakers in future summers when Reaves is (presumably) making roughly triple what he is now.

6. Trae Young, PG, Washington (player option): $29,495,966

I’ve probably seen more of Young over the last half-decade than anybody who doesn’t either work for the Hawks or cover them full-time. He’s definitely a one-man offensive engine for a team that badly needs one, definitely an elite passer, definitely lost a step two years ago and has more trouble beating switches than he used to and definitely highly flammable on defense, although he at least tries now. (More on that here.)

As a small guard entering his age-28 season, the danger is less the money and more the years. You don’t want to get caught with a big number in Young’s decline years, especially for a team that’s still rebuilding like Washington. He has a player option for $49 million, and while opting out and re-signing a new deal is an option, it probably works better for the Wizards’ cap management to just tack on new years to this existing number.

For instance, getting to a total of three years, $110 million would put two new seasons at $30 million on the Wizards’ books, which can not only accommodate additions and re-signings vis-à-vis the luxury tax but also cracks the door open for a cap-room play in summer 2027. As with Harden above, there seems to be little to no chance that Young changes teams.

7. Julian Champagnie, SF, San Antonio, (team option, non-guaranteed): $25,726,203

The Spurs will not be an expensive team in 2026-27 but will be extremely expensive within two years once Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant all become extension eligible.

Thus, they have an obvious incentive to wipe out Champagnie’s cheapo team option for the coming season and sign him to a new contract for descending dollars, instead of waiting until he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2027 and then paying full freight.

That likely entails committing to something like five years and $100 million or so, i.e. paying him just south of nine figures in new money in addition to the team option and spreading that money over five seasons. To further smooth the cap hit, San Antonio could start the contract at its maximal value and decline his salary by 8 percent each season.

8. Neemias Queta, C, Boston, (team option, partial guarantee): $25,638,207

The Celtics are in a similar situation to the one with Hartenstein above. Queta proved himself as a viable starting center and is worth several multiples of his $2.67 million salary, but the Celtics have an incentive to decline the option if they can get him to re-sign to a longer deal on good terms.

The only complication is that Boston likely wants to stay under the luxury tax in 2026-27 to take the repeater tax out of play for the next three years; if the Celtics also want to use their midlevel exception on frontcourt depth, that could get tricky. However, there may be a sweet spot around four years and $65 million to $70 million that lets Boston have its cake and eat it too.

9. Tari Eason, SF, Houston (restricted): $24,110,720

Eason and the Rockets were close to an extension for roughly this dollar amount a year ago but couldn’t dot all the I’s by the deadline for rookie contact extensions. The most important stat for Eason is the games played column — he suited up for 60, plus all six playoff games, his most since he played 82 as a rookie. Eason also showed more bona fides as a 3-and-D guy by shooting 35.8 percent from distance on respectable volume. The “D” part of the equation for him is much more established, of course, as Eason is a chaos agent with plus size for a wing and ballhawking instincts.

All of that should leave him with a market right in the neighborhood of three years and $75 million; the question is more about how many contractual bells and whistles will be attached to guard against physical issues. Houston will surely tender him his $8 million qualifying offer, and one presumes the Rockets would match reasonable offer sheets given their mostly manageable cap sheet.

Suns guard Collin Gillespie had a fantastic season in Phoenix. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)

Tier 3: MLE guys

10. Collin Gillespie, PG, Phoenix: $21,472,942

This valuation may sound pretty extreme because Gillespie’s career had little traction until he blew up in his age-26 season, but he was fantastic last year. He’s also a career 40.5 percent 3-point shooter on serious volume, holds his own on defense and can run an offense. Paying him fifth-starter money isn’t crazy.

The market, however, may work slightly against him, as the Suns only have early Bird rights on Gillespie, capping what they can pay him at an estimated $15.6 million in 2026-27 salary. That still gets Phoenix above rivals offering the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, so it may end up as Gillespie’s best option. A three-year deal for an estimated $51 million would be a nice resolution, especially if the Suns can manage keeping both him and Mark Williams while staying under the second-apron payroll threshold.

11. Keon Ellis, SG, Cleveland: $19,989,738

My numbers have always been far, far more bullish on Ellis than the people who coach his teams, and this valuation is no exception. The Cavs barely used Ellis after acquiring him at midseason from Sacramento, whose more baffling unwillingness to put him on the court made him available in the first place.

At his best, Ellis is a plus defender at guard who is money on open 3s (40.7 percent career!), but he’s undersized against apex wings and doesn’t offer a lot of shot creation. Because of that, I’d say his true market is probably for half this amount. Even at that price, the Cavs’ tax issues seem to make them an unlikely destination. At 26 years old, Ellis could be a nice fit on a rebuilding team, such as Brooklyn, or one emerging from hibernation, such as Utah or Washington.

12. Kevin Porter Jr., PG, Milwaukee (player option): $19,960,319

Porter was the Bucks’ second-best player in 2025-26 and might be the best one when camp opens, even while going cold from 3 (just 32.2 percent) in his 38 games.

Porter’s issues at other stops and iffy commitment to defense are likely going to cap his salary south of this BORD$ valuation, as the Bucks may not have much competition for his services at eight-figure prices. He surely will opt out of his $5.4 million deal for 2026-27, however, and as an early Bird rights player, the Bucks can pay an estimated $15.6 million in 2026-27 salary to retain him if need be — just beating the non-taxpayer MLE amount ($15 million) that would let other teams in the door. A deal for a bit less than that, in the neighborhood of three years and $40 million, seems like a reasonable sweet spot.

13. Tobias Harris, PF, Detroit: $19,715,982

Reminder: BORD$ doesn’t include the playoffs. Harris had a solid regular season but really proved his worth in Detroit’s playoff run, operating as the Pistons’ second option while Jalen Duren fizzled. In doing so, he exhibited that, whatever the Pistons plan to do with their future cap, just letting Harris walk isn’t a viable option unless they’re getting a star-caliber upgrade at the same position.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that, even pushing age 34, Harris seems a good bet to get something relatively close to the two-year, $50 million deal he originally inked in Detroit in 2024 — maybe closer to 40 than 50 this time, but still in excess of the MLE. Detroit’s cap sheet can comfortably handle him on a number in that range.

14. Sandro Mamukelashvili, C, Toronto (player option): $19,419,741

Mamu is assuredly opting out of his deal for $2.8 million after he tore up the nets last season as a scoring, floor-spacing big man off the bench. He’s a tricky valuation because his defense likely prevents him from adding value as a starting center, so the question is how much teams want to pay for a prominent bench player.

While he’s valued at more than the $15 million non-taxpayer MLE, I think that price will effectively become his cap this summer. Note that a return to Toronto is still possible, but it would require the Raptors to use their exception money, as they have no Bird rights on Mamukelashvili.

15. Deandre Ayton, C, Lakers (player option): $19,305,583

OK, maybe not Dominayton, but how about Decently Productivayton?

Ayton signed a value deal in L.A. so he could get back out on the market for a better payday this summer. He did his part by spending less time front-rimming 15-footers and more time crashing the rim, giving the Lakers a solid starting center.

He’ll surely opt out of his $8.1 million deal, and the Lakers may not bring him back given their potential cap space maneuvers and the fact that they have no Bird rights on Ayton. That immediately makes him among the most gettable starting center candidates, and the presence of center-needy cap-room teams like the Bulls or Nets could push his price above the non-taxpayer MLE.

16. Norman Powell, SG, Miami: $19,165,238

Powell made the All-Star team ahead of his teammate who both had an 83-point game and made the All-Defensive team, an objectively hilarious overreaction to Powell’s torrid shooting in the first half of the season. At age 33, the market isn’t going to get too overheated for Powell, especially on a longer deal, and Miami’s other offseason uncertainties (cough Giannis cough) could limit how far the Heat are willing to go to retain him as free agency kicks off.

That said, Miami has full Bird rights, and the tax and apron situations are very manageable. On a short deal, his contract will be tradeable. There’s a case for a short-term overpay — say, two years and $50 million — to give Miami enough ballast to salary match in trades later.

17. John Collins, PF, Clippers: $18,890,305

Collins won’t turn 29 until late September and has put together three straight solid, starting-caliber seasons after leaving Atlanta. The key is his development as a 3-point shooter, hitting 39.9 percent in 2024-25 and 40.6 percent in 2025-26. That spacing component has allowed him to play power forward and made him less dependent on rim-running as an undersized center.

The Clippers have Bird rights on Collins but could choose cap-room scenarios instead of bringing the band back after a disappointing 2025-26. If he leaves LA, he’d be a likely target for teams with their full non-taxpayer MLE, especially those needing a starting power forward or a top frontcourt sub. At his age, teams would probably want to keep at it three years and maybe angle for two.

18. Coby White, SG, Charlotte: $18,121,736

White is a valuable scorer who profiles more as an elite sixth man than a starter, but he can play on or off the ball and has enough size to check shooting guards. That should get his price point to the non-taxpayer MLE at the very least, and likely above it given his age (26) and the presence of multiple cap-room teams. Charlotte has some minor tax issues if it pays him full freight, but those could easily be resolved by dropping off an underperforming low-eight-figure contract, such as those of Grant Williams, Josh Green and/or Tre Mann, someplace else.

19. Lu Dort, SF, Oklahoma City (team option): $17,705,328

It seems unlikely that the Thunder can continue with Dort next season. They have multiple players at his position who are both better and younger, the team is set to be $40 million over the projected luxury tax line and Dort is coming off an off-year in which he was notably ineffective in the Western Conference finals.

The Thunder’s most likely pathway out would be to trade him for a second-round pick or two and generate a $17 million trade exception; given that Dort has a contract for $17.7 million with one year left (note that it also has an extra $1 million in unlikely incentives that count toward the apron) — nearly the same figure as his BORD$ valuation — that seems a fair proposition for the acquiring team. He could also be extended as part of the same trade. If the Thunder can’t make a deal, another endgame is to decline the option on Dort, which would likely see him get offers for the full non-taxpayer midlevel exception.

20. Fred VanVleet, PG, Houston, (player option): $17,526,557

VanVleet missed the season with a torn ACL, so BORD$ is triangulating here based on his age and previous track record. He also has a player option for $25 million; he could just opt into it and try his luck as an unrestricted free agent next year.

What might work better for all parties, however, would be if he declines the option and immediately re-signs with Houston on a deal that pays him less money for 2026-27 (so the Rockets can manage the tax aprons) but gives the 32-year-old more security for the years that follow. Maybe something in the neighborhood of three years and $70 million.

Kristaps Porzingis is productive … when he plays. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)

21. Kristaps Porziņģis, C, Golden State: $16,860,043

Porziņģis was quite good when he got on the floor in Atlanta; unfortunately, that only happened about once every lunar eclipse, and the situation didn’t improve much in Golden State. At this point, teams need to value him as a ceiling-raiser who adds another dimension when healthy, but one who will be frustratingly unavailable for a big chunk of the schedule.

He’s likely looking at a one- or two-year deal at this point because of the health questions, and valuations around the non-taxpayer MLE. The Warriors have Bird rights on Porziņģis, and he seems to fit as well there as he would anywhere else; something in the area of two years and $25 million to $30 million seems fair and would put him on a similar timeline to the rest of the Warriors’ vets.

22. CJ McCollum, PG, Atlanta: $16,536,607

McCollum was the perfect spark plug for Atlanta’s offense once he came over from Washington; he also, alas, turns 35 in September and doesn’t really fit the timeline of this Hawks roster full of 20-somethings. Conveniently, BORD$ values him just a whisker above the non-taxpayer MLE, because that seems like a logical landing spot for his next contract. A two-year deal would be about the maximum tolerable risk given McCollum’s age, but something around $30 million to $35 million for that time span won’t mess with Atlanta’s cap in the absence of a larger blockbuster.

There’s a scenario where re-signing McCollum to a bloated, one-year balloon deal for $30 million or so, with a non-guaranteed second year, makes some sense for the Hawks. Atlanta is miles from the projected tax line, and such a contract could be used in a midseason swap for elite talent; of course, the Hawks also have a similar potential situation with Jonathan Kuminga, so they may not need McCollum’s contract to do this.

23. Mark Williams, C, Phoenix (restricted): $16,190,218

Williams helped answer questions about his durability by playing a career-high 60 games for the Suns, and now he seems set for a raise. His qualifying offer of $9.6 million is inexpensive enough that Phoenix surely will tender it to make him a restricted free agent.

The trick for Phoenix is having enough room below the first apron to bring back both Williams and Collin Gillespie, which may require the Suns to trade one of their 19 shooting guards. Given his restricted status and the durability questions, Williams’ price shouldn’t get crazy; the non-taxpayer MLE seems a realistic ceiling.

24. Walker Kessler, C, Utah (restricted): $15,795,301

BORD$ likely greatly undervalues Kessler because of Utah’s tanking the last two years; the Jazz shut him down after five games in 2025-26, and he only played 58 contests the year before. However, Kessler is one of the league’s best shot-blockers and rim finishers, with an 8.3 percent block rate for his career and the league’s leading offensive rebound rate in 2024-25. That season, 131 of his 272 2-point baskets were dunks, which explains how he shot 70.6 percent on 2s.

In short, Kessler is a really valuable player, and this figure is an extreme floor. I won’t be shocked at all if he’s paid almost double this amount on an annual basis, especially if offer-sheet sharks come after him in a bid to use cap space.

25. Ayo Dosunmu, SG, Minnesota: $14,485,494

After a midseason trade from Chicago, Dosunmu proved his worth to Minnesota in the postseason with a 43-point game and several other notable performances. He’s an unrestricted free agent, so the Wolves will have to deliver a market-value deal, but it seems like they could come in at the nontaxpayer MLE or slightly above and ward off any reasonable competition on a three-year deal for the 26-year-old.