Рафаэль Физиев UFC Baku тэмцээнд ялалт байгуулж карьераа сэргээхээр зорьж байна

UFC Baku could be Rafael Fiziev’s last chance to get back on track.

The proud Azerbaijani fighter has a home date Saturday as he takes on Mexico’s Manuel Torres, who has won two straight and five of six since being signed off of Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021.

Once a surging lightweight contender himself, Fiziev is coming off of a knockout loss to Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 325 and has won just once in his past five fights. Fiziev always puts on a show and is a fan favorite, but if he can’t score a win tonight under favorable circumstances, it could be the last time he headlines a UFC event.

Also in main card action, Shara Bullet and Michel Pereira meet in a tense middleweight matchup, top 15 flyweights Amu Almabayev and Charles Johnson jockey for position in the division, and Ikram Aliskerov looks to prove he’s a legit contender at 185 pounds when he takes on the hard-hitting Brunno Ferreira.

What: UFC Baku

Where: National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan

When: Saturday, June 27. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 9 a.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card at 12 p.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)

Rafael Fiziev (14) vs. Manuel Torres

The stage is set for Rafael Fiziev to put on a show, even against a formidable opponent like Manuel Torres.

As in many of the striker’s thrilling matchups, his success depends on controlling the range, in this instance utilizing smart footwork and tricky side-to-side movement to prevent Torres from getting a bead on him. Torres is an absolute sniper once he starts to connect and he won’t need to land too many shots to put down Fiziev, whose chin is understandably weathered after years of trading shots with the lightweight division’s best.

The old man can still execute, though, and I’m not holding losses to Mauricio Ruffy, Justin Gaethje, and Mateusz Gamrot (the latter due to injury) against him too much, even though it’s fair to say Fiziev has lost a step or two to Father Time. I still view him as one of the best technical strikers in the UFC, someone who has such a strong grasp of the fundamentals that it allows him to break out flashier techniques when he gets into a groove.

Torres has only fought past the first round once in his career and I don’t think that’s a good thing against Fiziev. As the bout progresses, Fiziev’s experience will pay dividends and he’ll start to pick Torres apart. Just has to make it past Round 1.

Pick: Fiziev

Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira

Guess what? I’m not selling my Michel Pereira stock either!

Call me delusional, but I still think—despite plenty of evidence to the contrary—that “Demolidor” still has enough left in the tank to win some big fights. It’s obvious he’s being set up to be styled on by Shara Bullet. I’m not so sure it’s that simple.

Stylistically, Pereira might not have much in common with Michael Page, but he can imitate some of that veteran savvy when he’s so inclined. As painfully dull as it can be to watch a more cerebral Pereira, his best bet is to frustrate Bullet as opposed to trying to match him move for move. Bullet is dangerous when he finds his rhythm and this could go downhill fast for Pereira.

I’m going with vibes here and picking Pereira to use his speed and agility to straight-up annoy Bullet, causing the Russian Muay Thai specialist to make mistakes. Pereira will capitalize and deliver a vintage highlight-reel finish for the upset.

Pick: Pereira

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo

One of four Azerbaijani fighters competing Saturday (shout-out to the debuting Farman Hasanov and Tahir Abdullayev), Nazim Sadykhov has a favorable, but still challenging matchup against Brazil’s Matheus Camilo.

After being bullied by Fares Ziam last time out, Sadykhov better work on his takedown defense and dealing with pressure because Camilo will to take the fight to him. Sadykhov’s advantage is that he’s the superior striker, which will make it difficult for Camilo to close the distance without eating some shots. On the flip-side, Sadykhov has also a tendency to take one to deliver one, so if Camilo wants a brawl, this fight could go down that path as well.

Sadykhov will have to keep Camilo off of him for three rounds but as long as this one stays on the feet, the home-country favorite should batter Camilo en route to a decision win.

Pick: Sadykhov

Asu Almabayev (11) vs. Charles Johnson (15)

This should be a wrestling-heavy win for Asu Almabayev, but I have my concerns:

1. Almabayev is kind of a small dude and Charles Johnson is kind of a big dude, there will be a glaring size difference when they get in the cage.
2. Almabayev is a willing striker, but limited in his defense as he tends to just use his athleticism to dodge out of the way as opposed to properly countering. That’s a good way to get chinned.
3. Johnson has a reputation for beating the odds. Depending which book you’re looking at, Johnson has won the past four fights where he’s an underdog.

It’s not some weird coincidence that Johnson has knocked out both Joshua Van and Lone’er Kavanagh. The man has the utmost confidence in his abilities and he packs a ton of punching power at 125 pounds. I guarantee you he sees Almabayev as easy pickings.

Almabayev is disciplined, though, and his camp undoubtedly put a heavy emphasis on takedowns, takedowns, and more takedowns. As long as he keeps that chin tucked and focuses on maintaining position over hunting for a finish, he should win this fight on the cards.

Pick: Almabayev

Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira

This isn’t a complicated matchup.

Ikram Aliskerov is all about cutting off the cage and letting his right hand fly, while Brunno Ferreira will be looking to swing big from the opening bell. Expect both fighters to respect the other’s power, so we could see a slow start as they look to avoid getting caught in the opening minutes.

Should it come to it, Aliskerov has shown he’s more than willing to wrestle, and Ferreira could find himself stuck on his back or glued to the fence for long stretches. He’ll have success on the feet when he’s able to create separation, but he’ll have to watch out for Aliskerov’s sneaky bombs. In addition to his piston-like right, Aliskerov also has a short left hook he loves to throw.

Aliskerov’s only losses have come against Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev, two UFC middleweight champions. He still has a lot to prove that he belongs anywhere near that tier, but I still see him as a notch above Ferreira.

A straight right proves to be Ferreira’s kryptonite once again. Aliskerov by knockout.

Pick: Aliskerov

Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Michal Oleksiejczuk has been a fun watch at middleweight. Kudos to him for properly making the drop down and trusting that his all-offense style would translate well in a lighter division. Should he be taken seriously as a contender?

His opponent Abus Magomedov faces some of those same questions having stumbled against the best fighters in the division. There are serious questions about Magomedov’s ability to succeed in a three-round fight, though fortunately for him that probably won’t matter on Saturday. The like-minded Oleksiejczuk is going in there to finish and finish fast.

Magomedov might have the slight power edge, but Oleksiejczuk’s is such an effective boxer I expect him to break Magomedov down with volume and invite him to throw down in a one-round game of chicken. Grappling could be a major factor as the taller Magomedov could decide to tie Oleksiejczuk up and bring down to the mat, so we’ll see if Oleksiejczuk’s takedown defense holds up.

This one could go either way. The only thing I’m confident of is it doesn’t go to the scorecards.

Pick: Oleksiejczuk

Preliminaries

Farman Hasanov def. Eric Nolan

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev def. Julius Walker

Nursulton Ruziboev def. Andrey Pulyaev

Javier Reyes def. Kaan Ofli

Daniil Donchenko def. Theodor Berggren

Bekzat Almakhan def. Jean Matsumoto

Tahir Abdullayev def. Jefferson Nascimento