ОХУ-ын ерөнхийлөгч дайныг зогсоох нь өөрийнх нь улс төрийн төгсгөл болох тул Украины эсрэг түрэмгийллээ үргэлжлүүлэхээс өөр аргагүй байна гэж хөрөнгө оруулагч, авлигын эсрэг тэмцэгч Билл Браудер анхаарууллаа.
Билл Браудерын үзэж буйгаар, ОХУ-ын ерөнхийлөгч Владимир Путин улс орныхоо баялгийг шамшигдуулж, иргэдийн амьжиргааг доройтуулсан тул эрх мэдлээ алдах аваас хүнд нөхцөл байдалтай тулгарах болно. Тэрээр Путинийг дотоодын хилэгнэсэн олны бослогоос эмээж, гадаад дайсан зохиомлоор бий болгох замаар эрх мэдлээ хадгалж үлдэхийг хичээж байна хэмээн дүгнэв. ОХУ-д дайны улмаас 1.2 сая гаруй цэрэг хохирсон нь ард иргэдийн дургүйцлийг хүргэж буй гол хүчин зүйл гэж тэрээр онцолжээ.
НАТО-гийн удирдагчид Турк улсад уулзах үеэрээ Киевийг өөрийн үйлдвэрлэлийн Patriot зенит пуужингийн системээр хангах шийдвэр гаргасан нь стратегийн чухал алхам боллоо. Билл Браудерын таамаглаж буйгаар, АНУ-ын оролцоо багассан ч Европын орнууд ирээдүйд Украиныг батлан хамгаалах салбартаа татан оруулах сонирхолтой болох юм. Энэ нь Украин улс өөрийн батлан хамгаалах чадавхиа бэхжүүлж, Европын аюулгүй байдалд чухал үүрэг гүйцэтгэх ирээдүйг харуулж байна.
Одоогийн нөхцөл байдал нь дайн албан ёсоор дуусахгүйгээр Солонгосын хойгийнх шиг “хөлдсөн” мөргөлдөөн болон хувирч болзошгүйг тэрээр анхаарууллаа. Энэхүү хувилбараар Украин улс ардчилсан, эрчимтэй хөгжиж буй эдийн засагтай “Өмнөд Солонгос” шиг улс болох бол ОХУ олон улсаас тусгаарлагдсан, эдийн засгийн хүндрэлтэй нөхцөл байдалд үлдэх төлөвтэй байна.
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Vladimir Putin’s growing unpopularity in Russia means he cannot afford to end the war with Ukraine as he will be lynched by his own people, the president’s greatest personal enemy in the West has warned.
Sir Bill Browder told the Independent’s World of Trouble podcast: “If he does a peace deal, he’ll lose power. If he loses power, then he’ll get strung up from a lamppost.”
The anti-corruption campaigner, who once ran the biggest investment fund in Russia, has fought against Putin for nearly two decades.
His latest intervention comes days after Nato leaders met in Turkey and agreed to allow Kyiv to produce its own Patriot air defence missiles, vital in withstanding the onslaught from Moscow.
Putin has variously claimed that he ordered the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 to see off a potential threat of Nato membership for Kyiv, to save Russian speaking peoples in the east of the country, or as part of a patriotic duty to return Ukraine to Russia’s empire.
But the truth, according to Browder, is that it is part of a desperate attempt by the Russian president to cling onto power after manipulating the country’s wealth for so long.
“A trillion dollars, thousand billion dollars has been stolen by Putin and, and the thousand people around him from the Russian state,” he said.
“And the reason why people live a bad life in Russia is because that money should have been spent on schools and hospitals and roads and public services. Instead, it was spent on private jets and yachts and villas in the south of France.
“Over time, Putin realised that he stole too much money, that someday… something would happen and people would get really angry really quick, would organize very quickly, and march on the Kremlin.”
Browder said the president could take out his political opponents, but if he compromised over Ukraine – where Russia has endured over 1.2 million casualties – the nation would react with rage at the waste of life.
“He can target people and kill them or imprison people or deport people on a one-off basis. But if a million people march on Red Square, he’s finished, and he understands that,” he continued.
“So what do you do, if you’re a very small man – he’s a tiny little man – who’s a very cowardly little man. You’re scared to death of your own people?… [You] create a foreign enemy, and you start a war.
“And that’s the reason why this war is not going to end.”
Browder said that as the US appeared to drift away from Nato and European defence under Trump’s stewardship, Ukraine’s role has become increasingly critical.
“I think in a few years’ time, the Europeans – in a new Nato which doesn’t include the United States – are going be begging Ukraine to be part of their defensive situation.
“I can imagine there will be some type of deal in which Ukraine says, ‘If you help us with our reconstruction financially, we will help you with your defense militarily,’ because they’ve now become the most pre-eminent fighting force in our part of the world.”
Browder, 62, has avoided numerous attempts to extradite him back to Moscow during his 17 year campaign for justice for his lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, who was tortured and murdered in Russian detention after exposing a massive fraud against the state.
There have been multiple attempts on Browder’s life and few individuals have had a more personal reason to study Putin who are still alive.
The US Magnitsky Act, inspired by the killing of Mr Magnitsky, is now the legal basis for personally targeted sanctions in America against Russia and corrupt officials all over the world.
Similar legislation has been passed in the UK, the EU, Canada and elsewhere to sanction human rights abusers and corrupt officials and is the backbone of the international sanctions regime against Russia over Ukraine.
Browder, who was often shunned by the British establishment in London which was a major centre for laundering dirty Russian money, was knighted in 2024 for his efforts to clean it up.
Russian money is no longer easily sloshing through the City, but he warned many other corrupt officials and leaders from around the world still used the British capital as a safe haven for stolen loot.
The Russian president is suffering as his country’s energy infrastructure takes a pounding from long-range missiles launched by Kyiv and the economy begins to founder.
There have been signs of senior officials beginning to question the wisdom of the campaign against Ukraine.
As a result many are predicting a victory for Kyiv over the Kremlin.
But Browder believes the war will drag on and end up in a stalemate with neither side winning.
“I know him from my own struggle pretty well, and I know that he never does what would be the rational thing to do. His entire modus operandi is to escalate, no matter what.”
He believes the best likely outcome is that Ukraine extracts such a heavy price for Russia’s war that it dwindles into a frozen cold conflict as between North Korea and South Korea.
“I don’t believe you are ever going to have Putin signing a peace treaty. I don’t think the war is ever going to end officially, but I can imagine it is going to grind down to a low level, potentially even totally quiet front, in the same way as North and South Korea did.”
The latter has enjoyed decades of prosperity and democracy while the former is shrouded by dictatorship and frequent famine.
“You know what happens 20 years from then,” Browder added. “Ukraine is the South Korea; booming, democratic vibrant economy and Russia is the North Korea; isolated from everybody… and it’s a much, much worse situation.”
