Дэлхийн аварга шалгаруулах тэмцээний тааврын өрсөлдөөн ширүүсэв

I try to avoid predictions, football or otherwise, mainly because you open yourself up to ridicule.

But when the bosses at The Athletic asked me to join my colleague Elias to become the ‘experts’ in our daily World Cup predictions articles, naturally I said… well, yes, actually. Hate predictions, love a challenge.

Elias and I have been pitched against a different subscriber each day, an algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and a dog called Stanley to bravely pick an outcome of each game. And with four games to go in the World Cup, we are just one correct prediction behind the ‘Algo’, who leads the way.

However, away from our daily preview articles and over in The Athletic’s interactive soccer Pick’ems game, our readers have been showing us all how it’s done.

The Pick’Ems game differs to our daily article in that anyone can play (and more than 216,000 have) and the table is ordered by ‘Best Streak’, which is the number of correct predictions made in a row.

And as we approach the semifinals, there are three readers in particular setting up a grandstand finish to the Pick’Ems game worthy of the World Cup itself.

During the tournament, more than two million predictions have been made in total and three of you now sit level at the top with a highest ‘Streak’ of 25 correct scores with just four games (two semifinals, the third/fourth-place playoff and the final) left to play.

Heading into the quarterfinals, one reader had the clubhouse lead with a streak of 25 — but it was no longer ‘active’, meaning they had set that streak earlier in the tournament and had since made an incorrect pick. So how did they do it? How did they manage to make 25 correct picks in a row?

Having gone for Norway to draw their final group game against France — they must have missed Norway head coach Stale Solbakken essentially conceding the game by admitting he was going to make wholesale changes — their streak began with the other Group I game as Senegal beat Iraq 5-0.

We should add here that one of the perks of the Pick’em game is that you can ‘Skip’ any game you wish, so players do not have to predict every game for their streak to continue. It’s a luxury that was not afforded to the prediction article; otherwise, obviously, we would have a streak of 30…

The subscriber who was setting the standard used it to their advantage as they did not make predictions on four games during their run. Whether it was intuition or because they forgot to input their prediction, the player did not enter a result for the biggest shock of the last-32 when Paraguay knocked out Germany on penalties. They also decided to give England versus DR Congo, Belgium versus Senegal and Canada versus Morocco a miss.

It was at the point of the tournament where there were few huge surprises, but they were brave to pick Morocco to beat the Netherlands and would have experienced all of the emotions in the added time of Algeria’s 3-3 draw with Austria. Their streak ended when Norway shocked Brazil to advance to the quarter-finals.

That left the door open for others to surpass the 25-game streak — and with four games left in the World Cup, there is a possibility that nine players could surpass that total with their current active streak.

Two are already level on 25, while there are two players on 24 and 23 respectively and three on 22.

Both of those on 25 started their streak by correctly predicting Morocco to advance against the Netherlands, arguably the toughest tie to predict from the last 32. Remarkably, neither player has skipped a game, with either their faith in Norway or lack of faith in Brazil helping them predict a Norway win correctly. They also backed Switzerland against Colombia, a result that ended a number of streaks.

These long, active streaks does point to a predictability about the knockout stages.

There have been few real surprises and one of them – Paraguay beating Germany – was the third knockout tie played. Games have been exciting, but the favourite has predominantly prevailed. That, though, takes nothing away from the impressive streaks — we (the experts) only managed a highest streak of nine during the knockout stages.

Two of the players, one with a streak of 23 and the other with 22, only started playing at the start of the round of 32, predicting a total of 27 games. The former’s streak began with France’s 3-0 victory over Sweden, while the latter’s streak is one fewer because they decided to skip the Mexico versus England game.

To take the lead, the two subscribers with the active 25-game streak have a decision to make regarding the two semi-finals. While neither have opted to miss out a game on their run so far, the tournament’s two best teams face off when France take on Spain, while England play Argentina, two teams who are flawed but keep finding ways to win.

The risk of skipping a game opens up the possibility of falling behind if the other subscriber chooses to play and gets it right, but it could also be beneficial because you may dodge the bullet the other subscriber didn’t and keep your streak alive.

A similar logic applies to the third-place play-off game – a match one or both teams may not really want to be involved in, increasing the unpredictability.

So, as you sit down to enjoy the final stages of the World Cup, never mind how the players are feeling, spare a thought for the players making their all-important predictions in their bid to lift the imaginary Pick’ems trophy.