Нью-Йорк Никсийн аварга цол болон Жэйлен Брансоны ирээдүйн алдрын танхимын магадлал

No one in the NBA has had a better 2026 than Jalen Brunson.

The New York Knicks star won an NBA title, was the NBA Finals MVP and became the king of New York (and New Jersey and probably half of Connecticut). The Knicks hadn’t won a title in 53 years before Brunson helped bring them one. He slayed a giant in San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama and helped orchestrate one of the greatest comebacks in league history.

If there were a checklist of seemingly impossible achievements, Brunson might have checked them all. He got to ride on a float down the Canyon of Heroes in lower Manhattan and give a speech at City Hall. But did he do enough to earn a place in immortality in Springfield, Mass.?

Welcome to the 2026 edition of The Athletic’s Basketball Hall of Fame tiers, in which we try to assess who in the NBA is headed to the Hall, that mystical, magical, mysterious (and completely free from transparency) shrine to basketball history. It’s tough to say definitively what is enough to send someone to Springfield. Hall voters operate with a Justice Potter Stewart approach: They know a Hall of Famer when they see one. Michael Cooper, Hall of Famer; Shawn Marion, keep waiting.

The Athletic, however, takes a rigorous, empirical approach to reading their tea leaves. We zealously comb through Basketball Reference pages and gauge someone’s Hall worthiness using our proprietary four-metric formula: PETE — the Peterson Enshrinement Totems Extrapolated — as an homage to the OG of this exercise. If an NBA player has won an MVP, a finals MVP, a scoring title or is in the top 50 all-time in scoring, then it’s very likely they will be headed to the Hall.

This year, the Knicks’ title run catapulted two of their best players into the conversation. Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns were on the Hall of Fame track before the 2025-26 season. When it ended, their resumes got stronger. Is that enough to get them over the line?

Brunson has a stronger case, both in terms of metrics and reputation. While he spent his first four years in the NBA as a backup with the Dallas Mavericks, he has blossomed into one of the league’s best players in New York. He has made three All-NBA Second Teams, finished fifth in MVP voting and won the Clutch Player of the Year award (value of that TBD), in addition to his title and finals MVP. If Brunson were to keep this up next season, he may put together the greatest five-year run by a lefty in New York since Babe Ruth.

In comparison to those already in Springfield, the case for Brunson seems nearly ironclad. Only one Hall-eligible player has ever won finals MVP and not made the Hall (Cedric Maxwell). Chauncey Billups, who seemed like a fringe case, was inducted in 2024 after a career in which he made three All-NBA teams (but only one second team) but he never had the same regard league-wide.

Brunson is unquestionably one of the best players in the league right now, and it’s rare that players that good don’t get in. The Hall has allowed in worse players, without Brunson’s multi-year peak. He has averaged 26.3 points per game with the Knicks. According to Basketball Reference, only six eligible players have missed the Hall while averaging at least 25 points per game over a 284-game span (that’s how many games Brunson has played in New York and a rough stand-in for four seasons): Mark Aguirre, Gilbert Arenas, DeMarcus Cousins, Dale Ellis, World B. Free and Kiki Vandeweghe.

Longevity will help make Brunson’s case as well, but even if his career were to end today, he should get in. He has had more All-NBA seasons than supernovas like Derrick Rose — who won the MVP award but might still miss the Hall — and he has winning on his side, which should count for a lot.

As of now, Basketball Reference’s Hall of Fame Probability Index (BBRHOFP) gives him a 13.1 percent chance at induction, 29th-highest for an active player, but that has its glitches. Several players have gotten in with lower probability scores, including Bill Walton, who had three great seasons with the Portland Trail Blazers, including a title and regular-season MVP award, before injuries robbed him of several years on the court and a longer prime.

Brunson’s resume is also strengthened by his college career. It is the Basketball Hall of Fame, after all, not the NBA Hall of Fame. Brunson won two national championships at Villanova and was the consensus college player of the year in 2018. That should be more than enough to get Brunson in.

The case for Towns is more complicated in some ways and easier in others. The BBRHOFP gives him an 86.9 percent chance to get in, which is 92nd all-time, and only one top-100 eligible player hasn’t gotten in. (Apologies to Fort Wayne Pistons legend Larry Foust.)

But Towns has only made three All-NBA teams, and none above third team. He has never garnered an MVP vote. The only award he has won is the Rookie of the Year in 2016. He is unquestionably one of the top shooting bigs ever (39.7 percent from 3 for his career) and has averaged 22.8 points and 11.1 rebounds over 11 seasons.

Therein lies the conundrum with Towns: The stats are great, but the supporting credentials are a little lacking. Still, a title should help him. Winning always helps. Spoiler: He’ll go into the In the Mix tier, but he’s somewhere between that and Near Locks — the 3.5-star Yelp review of Hall of Fame tiers.

That may be nitpicking. The list of players to have averaged 22 and 10 over their careers is short. Only 15 players have done it in NBA history. Five of them are still active, and of the other 10, only one* is not in the Hall of Fame. (*Can you guess who? The answer is at the end.)

So congratulations to the 2026 Knicks, a team that will be remember for generations and has ensured that at least two of its stars will likely have a home in Springfield when they retire, in addition to all the drinks and meals they’ll never have to pay for in New York.

Now that we have settled the debate with Brunson and Towns, we need to look at which other current and retired NBA players are headed for the Basketball Hall of Fame or have a case to get there. Let’s break it down by using PETE, Basketball Reference’s excellent Hall of Fame Probability metric and a smidge of subjective reasoning. (Some analysis may sound familiar if you’ve followed this project in years past.)

Active: Locks

• James, Curry and Durant are no doubt Hall of Famers. There’s nothing to discuss. They are among the 20 best players of all time and have so many trophies they’ve probably lost count. They will stand the test of time as some of the truly best players the league has ever seen. The only remaining question for this group is which jersey Durant is associated with in Springfield and if James’ 76ers era warrants a rewrite of his Hall resume.

• Antetokounmpois not quite in that pantheon but is trending there. He has won two MVP awards, a finals MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and a Most Improved Player trophy to boot. He has seven consecutive top-four finishes in MVP voting, with just as many first-team All-NBA placements in that time. All that’s left to see is how high he can climb over the rest of his career. Still just 31, he might have another title or MVP left in him as he moves to Miami.

• Jokić can rest assured he’ll be feted in Springfield one day — if he even cares. He has won three MVP awards and a finals MVP. He hasn’t finished lower than second in MVP voting since 2020 and made six first-team All-NBA squads (and eight total) in his career. He is arguably the best player in the sport right now and, at 31, has plenty of time to build on what he has done.

• Gilgeous-Alexander vaulted into this tier with his second regular-season MVP in 2026. He is just the 16th player in NBA history with multiple MVPs. He has only played eight NBA seasons, but the latter half of his career to this point has been almost as good as anyone has ever had. He has made first-team All-NBA four straight years and was top five in MVP voting each season. He has a finals MVP and a scoring title on his mantle, too.

• Harden is in the late stages of a no-doubt Hall of Fame career. He made the All-NBA Third Team and finished 10th in MVP voting in 2024-25 at 35 years old, which might serve as a nice capstone to a long run as an MVP vote-getter. His career is almost unimpeachable, aside from the persistent playoff shortcomings. In some ways, he is a photo negative of his former teammate, Leonard, who has had his troubles staying on the court but is still highly productive when he plays. Leonard made his seventh All-NBA team last season, the latest honor in a career in which he has won two rings and two finals MVPs and notched a place on the NBA’s 75th anniversary team. Whatever the NBA rules after its investigation into possible cap circumvention by the LA Clippers won’t taint Leonard’s career, but it may put an interesting footnote on his cover letter.

• Embiid has played just 96 games over three seasons after winning MVP. He had a dominant 2023-24 season, when he averaged more than a point per minute, and has barely played since then. Embiid’s accomplishments and dominance (when he plays) should be enough to get him into the Hall, but his case is more tenuous than it seems. He has a lower Hall of Fame probability score than Amar’e Stoudemire, but winning MVP plus an Olympic gold medal all but guarantees enshrinement.

• Davis is on his third team since the start of the 2024-25 season, and his career has tailed off over the last half-decade. He has made just one All-NBA team in that time and played more than 54 games just once. But he is already a lock (99.9 percent BBRHOFP) because of everything he did before age 28 (three top-six MVP finishes, a title, four All-NBA First Team nods and two Olympic gold medals), and it certainly won’t hurt if he can reverse his trendline with the Washington Wizards. He also was the national college player of the year and won a title at Kentucky in 2012.

• Green will go down as one of the elite role players in NBA history. He was a key part of four championship teams, made two All-NBA teams and won the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2017. Butler had a rocky 2024-25, playing just 55 games after a prolonged feud with the Miami Heat and a messy breakup, then missed half of last season, but he isn’t the only future Hall of Famer with an ugly exit on his cover letter. If nothing else, the split strained the bond with the organization that he may ultimately be most closely associated with when he retires. Coincidentally, Green and Butler are Nos. 101 and 102 in BBRHOFP at roughly 76 percent. Thompson also had a harsh breakup and is now with the Dallas Mavericks, which looks like the sunset of his career. But his Springfield resume is secure, with four rings and a reputation as one of the best shooters of all time.

• Lillard had a rough 2025. He tore his Achilles and was stretch-waived by the Milwaukee Bucks, ending a fruitless two-season stint there. He returned to Portland, which is a nice parachute landing so he can rehab and return to the court in a comfortable spot. At 36, it seems unlikely he’ll make an All-NBA team again, but Lillard has made seven of them and finished in the top eight of MVP voting five times and also has an Olympic gold medal. Meanwhile, Westbrook is looking for his next team after mostly coming off the bench for the Clippers, Nuggets and Kings over the last three seasons. Westbrook has an MVP award, more triple-doubles than anyone in league history and nine All-NBA selections to his name, and he sits fifth on the all-time assists leaderboard.

Active: Near locks

• Dončić has not had any drop-off with the Lakers. At 27, he has six first-team All-NBA selections and five top-six MVP finishes, and ranks third in career scoring average and 12th in career assists per game. He got the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals in June 2024, which only made his trade to the Lakers more surprising. Dončić is not quite a lock for the Hall yet, but he’s clearly on the right trajectory. He has a 68.3 percent chance right now by BBRHOFP and might be one more All-NBA season away from becoming a lock, but it’s easy to argue he’s already there.

• The same can be said forTatum. He now has team success (the 2024 NBA title) to go with four first-team All-NBA selections and four consecutive top-six MVP finishes. He missed most of the 2025-26 season recovering from an Achilles tear, but Tatum’s HOF probability score puts him smack dab between Cliff Hagan (HOF class of 1978) and Bobby Wanzer (HOF class of 1987).

• Irving missed all of last season, and at 34, he may have already peaked. He is undoubtedly one of the premier scorers and playmakers of his era and hit one of the biggest shots in NBA history in Game 7 of the 2016 finals. He has also made just three All-NBA teams and never received an MVP vote. He will likely get into the Hall, but his case is more muddled than it seems.

• George had a forgettable two seasons with the Philadelphia 76ers, and at 36, he is headed to Boston for another fresh start. Still, he has made six All-NBA teams and finished third in MVP voting in 2019. He has the 70th-highest HOF probability score, but that outranks his standing in league history. George will likely get in.

• It makes sense thatGobert will be a controversial Hall of Fame candidate because he has been a controversial player. He has won four Defensive Player of the Year awards, made three All-Star teams, twice led the league in blocks and is generally recognized as one of the best defensive players of his era. But to borrow from Rodney Dangerfield, he gets no respect. With a resume like that, Gobert should likely get in, especially when you include his international accomplishments (two Olympic silver medals), but it’s hard to say that definitively. He has just a 31.8 percent chance by BBRHOFP, which puts him between John Wall and Jermaine O’Neal.

• DeRozan ranks 16th in points in NBA history and 49th in career points per game, and he may have accumulated too many points to be kept out of the Hall of Fame. If he plays two more seasons and scores at least 1,000 points in each (as he has done in every season but his rookie year), then he could end up 10th in NBA history. But he will surely serve as a test case for the limits of the increased offense and longevity of players during this era. BBRHOFP gives him a little less than a 50 percent chance to get in.

Active: In the mix

• Brown put himself in contention when he won finals MVP in 2024. His 2025-26 season was his finest yet by accolades: a second-team All-NBA honor and sixth place in MVP voting. But then he got traded. Brown has made five All-Star teams and twice been second-team All-NBA, but he ranks just 195th in BBRHOFP, with just an 8.5 percent chance. It’s not the first time the analytics haven’t been his biggest supporter. But Brown is still 29 and has time to build his case in Philadelphia.

The next steps of Jaylen Brown’s potentially Hall of Fame career will come with the Sixers. (Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)

• Love, 37, is much closer to the end of his career and seems as if he is heading toward a future Hall of Fame induction. BBRHOFP gives him a 67.6 percent chance to get in despite just two All-NBA selections and six All-Star nods. But he’s also an NBA champion, an Olympic gold medalist and one of the best rebounders of his generation (46th all-time in total rebounds).

• Mitchell is slowly making a Hall case. He has three All-NBA appearances (two seconds and one first) and three top-seven MVP finishes. BBRHOFP gives him just as good a chance to make it to Springfield as Tatum, but Mitchell has not had Tatum’s individual accomplishments or team success.

• Edwards is one of the best players in the league, and the Minnesota Timberwolves have been consistently good in recent seasons. He has two All-NBA nods and two Western Conference finals appearances through his first six seasons.

• Booker‘s reputation might outrun his accolades. At 29, after 11 NBA seasons, the Phoenix Suns star has made two All-NBA teams (one first team). He finished fourth in MVP voting in 2022. While he has gaudy career scoring numbers (24.6 ppg), that might be his best argument here. BBRHOFP gives him a 17.3 percent chance to go to the Hall as of now.

Retired: Locks

• There’s no way Paul doesn’t make the Hall. He has a 100 percent score from BBRHOFP. He made 11 All-NBA teams, 12 All-Star Games, finished in the top five of MVP voting five times, won five assists titles and ranks second all-time on the NBA’s career assists list. He’s the Point God and should start working on his induction speech.

• Goodbye, Lowry, you’ll be missed in the NBA. Lowry was a great two-way guard. He didn’t rack up the individual honors (just one All-NBA appearance and six All-Star nods), but he was unquestionably very good and one of the best guards of his generation. He was a foundational part of the Raptors’ 2019 championship team. BBRHOFP puts his odds at 85.7 percent.

Retired: In the mix

• Only 14 players have made first-team All-NBA but missed out on the Hall if eligible. Only seven have won Defensive Player of the Year but not made the Hall. NoahandGasol are on both lists. Gasol likely has the better case, with two All-NBA appearances, an NBA title and two Olympic silver medals, though BBRHOFP gives him a 4.2 percent chance to make it. Noah only has one astounding season on the back of his trading card, but he finished fourth in MVP voting in 2014 while making first-team All-NBA, and he won two NCAA titles at Florida, which certainly won’t hurt his case.

• Rose will see if winning MVP is enough to get him into the Hall. He has a higher BBRHOFP than Pete Maravich and Spencer Haywood, but his career was never the same after his fourth NBA season.

• Iguodala actually has a higher BBRHOFP than Rose, as well as a finals MVP award, an Olympic gold medal and a key role on four NBA title teams. He also served as executive director of the National Basketball Players Association. Is that enough to outweigh just one All-Star appearance and a career in which he was better known as a star sidekick than a star? Only the voters, whoever they are, will decide.

Active: Above the Michael Cooper line

• Holiday is one of the best defenders of his era, has been a key part of two title winners, made two All-Star teams and has an Olympic gold as well. Horford is a five-time All-Star and has a 26.5 percent chance to get in, according to BBRHOFP. He won two NCAA titles at Florida alongside Noah.

• Young’s career, to this point, is where the stats and winning crowds come to meet and fight it out. He has the third-highest assists-per-game average in NBA history and the 15th-highest points per game. But he also has only one All-NBA selection — third team, no less. He also got traded for a very light return package last season. So what matters more? Young ranks just a few spots higher than Johnson by BBRHOFP, but even longtime Suns guard Johnson made five All-NBA teams (all but one of them second team). Johnson is not in the Hall of Fame.

• It will be interesting to see if Siakam can get in. His case would have been much stronger if the Indiana Pacers had won Game 7 of the finals in 2025. Siakam, who did win a title in Toronto, might have won finals MVP after he already won Eastern Conference finals MVP. Siakam has made two All-NBA teams and four All-Star teams, and he’s probably a few strong seasons away from really testing the boundary.

Will Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton end their careers as Hall of Famers? (Trevor Ruszkowski / Imagn Images)

• His teammate Haliburton missed all of last season as he recovered from an Achilles tear. He was injured after making third-team All-NBA for the second time and lading the Pacers to the finals. That’s it for his resume right now, though being the key cog of a finals team counts for a good bit. He’s short of the Hall right now, but the upside is obvious.

• Murray, 29, finally made his first All-Star Game and All-NBA team last season in his ninth year in the NBA. He was the second-best player on an NBA title team and is one of the better playoff performers of his generation, but his resume is still lacking.

• A first-team All-NBA appearance and consecutive top-seven MVP voting finishes put Cunningham here. He has emerged as one of the best guards in the NBA and will need to pile up some more accolades, but he is tracking positively.

• Adebayo is back on the list after he dropped off last season. Why? Well, he did score 83 points in one game, so that’s something. That’s not enough to get him in the Hall, but it’s an interesting nugget. Gilbert Arenas and Tom Chambers each scored 60 in a game, and they’re not in the Hall. Adebayo has two Olympic gold medals, but he has never made an All-NBA team, and BBRHOFP says he has a slightly smaller chance of making the Hall than Julius Randle.

• Jackson’s best argument is that he has a Defensive Player of the Year award, but so do Mark Eaton, Noah, Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Alvin Robertson, Metta World Peace and Marcus Camby, and they’re not in the Hall. Jackson needs some big seasons with the Utah Jazz to make a stronger case.

Active: Just keep it up

• It’s too early to give Wembanyama any kind of serious Hall evaluation. He has only played three NBA seasons so far. But they’ve been pretty, pretty, pretty good. A Rookie of the Year award, three-time blocks leader, first-team All-NBA, third in MVP voting — that’ll play.

Keep an eye on: Tyrese Maxey, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Johnson, Jalen Duren, Evan Mobley

Dropped from all tiers: Ja Morant, Domantas Sabonis

Trivia answer: *Alex Groza. He was an All-Star and first-team All-NBA selection in each of his first two seasons for the Indianapolis Olympians but never played after the 1950-51 season because he was suspended for life after he was implicated in acollege basketball point-shaving scandal.