Премьер лигийн аварга багууд бүрэлдэхүүнээ зузаатгах тал дээр удаашралтай байгаа нь өрсөлдөгч Арсеналд давуу тал олгож болзошгүй байна.
Премьер лигийн зуны солилцооны цонх хаагдахад ердөө долоо хоног үлджээ. Манчестер Сити болон Ливерпүүл багууд бүрэлдэхүүнээ шинэчлэх тал дээр уламжлалт арга барилаасаа хазайж, сүүлийн мөчид яаравчлах нөхцөл байдал үүсээд байна. Манчестер Ситигийн хувьд өгөгдөл, шинжлэх ухаанд суурилсан трансферийн бодлого баримталдаг ч энэ зун Лилль багийн хагас хамгаалагч Аюуб Буаддиг эгнээндээ нэгтгэхээр удаан хугацаанд хэлэлцээр хийж байна.
Ливерпүүлийн хувьд ч мөн адил идэвхгүй байгаа бөгөөд одоогоор ердөө Жереми Жакет, Виктор Муньоз нарыг багтаа нэгтгээд байна. Мохамед Салахыг орлох тоглогч, хамгаалалтын бүсийн шинэчлэл зэрэг тулгамдсан асуудлууд шийдэгдээгүй хэвээр байна. Шинэ дасгалжуулагчид болох Энцо Мареска болон Андони Ираола нарын хувьд улирлын эхний тоглолтууд бүрэлдэхүүний дутагдалтай талуудыг илчилж, яаралтай арга хэмжээ авах шаардлагатайг харууллаа.
Арсенал багийн хувьд бусад өрсөлдөгчдөөсөө ялгаатай нь өөрсдийн гол бүрэлдэхүүнээ хадгалж, Бруно Гимараэс, Эзри Конса зэрэг туршлагатай тоглогчдыг эгнээндээ нэгтгэн, тогтвортой байдлаа хадгалсаар байна. Манчестер Ситигийн гүйцэтгэх захирал Ферран Сорианогийн үзэж буйгаар, тэд залуу тоглогчдод хөрөнгө оруулах эрсдэлтэй замыг сонгосон бол Арсенал шууд үр дүн авчрах нас бие гүйцсэн тоглогчдыг сонгож байгаа нь ялгаатай өнцөг юм.
Том багуудын хувьд санхүүгийн дүрэм журам чангарч, тоглогч худалдаж авахын тулд заавал тоглогч зарах шаардлага тулгарч байгаа нь зах зээл дээрх үйл ажиллагааг улам хүндрүүлж байна. Ийнхүү трансферийн цонхны сүүлийн өдрүүдэд идэвхжиж буй Манчестер Сити болон Ливерпүүл багууд шинэ тоглогчдоо улирлын дундуур тактикийн системдээ сургах сорилттой нүүр тулахаар байна.
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“We measure 43 metrics across the pitch and melt those metrics down to just seven numbers. Based on those seven numbers, we can then cluster similar players together,” says Lewis Whitehouse, Manchester City’s player identification and evaluation lead.
This is a scene in Amazon Prime’s Beautiful Obsession documentary, about Pep Guardiola’s final two seasons at the Etihad, and it gives a remarkable insight into how City identify potential signings.
Whitehouse is presenting the findings of the data department’s search for the optimal Kevin De Bruyne replacement. Next to him is Txiki Begiristain, then director of football and the man who bought Guardiola’s players for a decade. One chair further along is Hugo Viana, the man who took the reins from Begiristain last August and is leading the club into a new era with Enzo Maresca.
There is a similar scene in the second episode, in which chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak concedes that sticking with their older players for one too many seasons has cost them. Chief executive Ferran Soriano adds that their “total quality index” number — which correlated to their chance of winning the league — has dipped to 156, behind Liverpool and Arsenal.
Numbers. Systems. Methodology. Scouts. Data. AI. The information streams are endless. Yet, with exactly a week to go in the transfer window, City will likely be doing their remaining summer business in a frantic dash before deadline day.
Liverpool have been very quiet, too. Jeremy Jacquet and Victor Munoz are the only two permanent players signed so far. Still no Mohamed Salah replacement, still no holding midfielder, and still no full-back reinforcements, despite the glaring weakness in both positions.
Growing pains were to be expected under new managers Maresca and Andoni Iraola, but the opening weekend highlighted clear personnel issues for both men, with the latter already conceding his squad is “thin”.
By shopping so late for key players, both coaches will have to embed any new signings while the season is underway. New arrivals would have to learn on the job rather than spend weeks absorbing complex tactical ideas. If not negligent, it is certainly inefficient.
Since the introduction of the summer transfer window for the 2002-03 season, the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’ clubs have done 20 per cent of their spending in the last week of that window. If City and Liverpool do make big signings — and Liverpool are still chasing Paris Saint-Germain’s Bradley Barcola and have made two bids for Brighton’s Yankuba Minteh — then this summer will mean historically late spending for both.
PSG’s Bradley Barcola is among Liverpool’s targets (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
These are two clubs that traditionally do their business early: click and collect by early July. No friction, minimal stress. Weeks for the shiny new parts to be polished up before being put on the road.
Last summer, Liverpool signed Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez and Florian Wirtz in June, and Hugo Ekitike in July. The outlier, of course, was the protracted deal for Alexander Isak that went all the way to deadline day.
With City, the contrast is even more striking. Look at 2017, the year in which Guardiola overhauled his entire squad. The anoraks at City Football Grouppinpointed the age blends of the sides that have won multiple competitions in multiple years and executed quickly: Ederson from Benfica on July 1, Bernardo Silva from Monaco on July 1, Kyle Walker from Spurs on July 17, Danilo from Real Madrid on July 23 and Benjamin Mendy from Monaco on July 24. Five pillars of a new team in place with three weeks to spare.
In 2018, Riyad Mahrez was brought in by July 7. In 2019, Rodri was in by July 4 and Joao Cancelo by August 7. In 2021, Erling Haaland was in by July 1. Last summer Rayan Ait-Nouri, Tijjani Reijnders and Rayan Cherki all signed in early June, in time to be on the plane to the U.S. for the Club World Cup.
City have only twice before made major summer signings with the season already underway: Ruben Dias joined in September 2020, two days after they lost 5-2 to Leicester City in the Covid-delayed season of 2020-21; and Gianluigi Donnarumma last September, when he unexpectedly became available after City had already re-signed James Trafford.
How times change. City added Elliot Anderson for £116million during the World Cup but have struggled to follow up that early business. Indeed, they have only just agreed a deal for Lille midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi, a pursuit that has dragged on all summer.
Chelsea even created an artificial deadline for City to stump up £120m for Enzo Fernandez. Approaches for Crystal Palace’s Adam Wharton and Bournemouth’s Alex Scott have been rebuffed, so now Roma’s Manu Kone has entered the picture. Palmeiras winger Allan Elias is closing in on a move as the club look for replacements for Savinho and Omar Marmoush, the duo heading to Spurs.
Is this a change of tack from Viana to leave business until later? One sporting director, speaking anonymously in order to be candid, says that outsiders do not fully understand that there is a big difference between having cash, being able to spend cash, and meeting regulations that are the strictest they have ever been. Even the big clubs need to sell to buy now.
Arsenal are the outlier in that they have not sacrificed a first-team regular since becoming contenders in 2022-23. However, if Gabriel Martinelli is sold for big money, then they will have simply bought Christos Tzolis before selling the player he was replacing.
City may have done exceedingly well to recoup close to £400m in player sales, but the issue with waiting on sales to be processed before reinvesting is that the whole world knows you have cash burning a hole in your pocket. That usually results in a wealth tax, as Newcastle United found out while carrying around their Alexander Isak pot of gold this time last year.
Manchester City’s pursuit of Ayyoub Bouaddi has dragged on (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
The Manchester City documentary offered an insightful preview of this summer, one in which Arsenal are the only top-six club not to have changed manager since the start of last season.
“All the players we have signed are very young. So we are at the beginning of a cycle,” says Soriano. “Arsenal have signed older players, average 27. Arsenal is looking for immediate impact. We have chosen to buy young players. That is our choice and that is the risk.”
Arsenal are taking no risks. They sense that their rivals are in flux and will need time to build. It is a moment they have planned for.
When the club set out on its five-year plan with Mikel Arteta at the end of 2019, in the midst of City and Liverpool’s era of dominance, they sought to predict when it would naturally end. A window between 2023 and 2027 was earmarked as the time for Arsenal to peak.
They could have got there a year or two earlier but they are the champions now, and this is the time to capitalise. The win-now mindset is underlined by the signing of Bruno Guimaraes from Newcastle and Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa, two 28-year-olds already battle-hardened by the Premier League.
Succession planning, project players, lowering the average age: these have become a religion in modern football strategy. For the big boys, however, there is the pressure to remain at the top. That requires oven-ready players. Arsenal have gone from the youngest team in the league a few years ago to one of the oldest, but they have stability, and that is priceless.
They may well run into the same problem as City did last year, by keeping the same core together too long. Or the decline may come next year, or the year after. But if signing peak-age, proven winners secures a stream of major trophies, that is surely preferable to betting on potential and losing their grip. It feels like this has been forgotten somewhere along the way.
So, while the others dither and hurriedly search for late additions, Arsenal have reinforced an already formidable base.
Additional reporting Conor O’Neill
