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What happened over the weekend?

On Saturday, a missile strike by the Houthis in Yemen hit Riyadh’s international airport, killing 13 people and wounding hundreds. On Sunday, another attack ‌killed one person and injured nearly a dozen others.

CCTV footage showed people cowering at the moment of impact of Saturday’s attack.

Footage filmed in the aftermath of showed damage inside one of the terminal buildings at the airport, which is located about 22 miles north of the Saudi Arabian capital.

The attacks by the Houthis, an Iran-backed group, were the biggest escalation yet in their campaign ⁠against Saudi airports, oil facilities and tankers in recent weeks.

Though the violence might appear at first sight to be restricted to the Arabian peninsula, it could have global consequences, pushing up fuel prices and so international inflation.

Why now?

The Houthis’ timing is partly opportunistic but also rooted in the dynamics of the conflicts across the Gulf.

The Houthis initially stayed on the sidelines of the conflict launched by the US and Israel against Iran earlier this year. But last month, the Islamist militia movement seized control of key territory and gained virtual control of the Bab al-Mandab strait, which dominates the Red Sea, a critical shipping route for oil and gas exports from the region.

The Yemeni government forces and local allies began a major counteroffensive last week to drive back the Houthis from the Bab al-Mandab and also hit other Houthi positions.

Saudi Arabia is in the Houthis’ crosshairs because it supports Yemen’s UN-backed government and its forces. Their attacks on high-profile targets in the kingdom such as oil infrastructure and the capital’s airport – key symbols of its international integration and economic future – makes painfully obvious the costs of Riyadh’s strategic choices.

Such attacks also benefits Iran, which has long supported the Houthis as part of its “axis of resistance”, a coalition of Islamist hardline movements that allows Tehran to project power and influence round the region.

The new threat from the Houthis to the Red Sea and to Saudi Arabia highlights again the massive leverage Tehran and its allies can exert on global oil and gas supplies, countering recent US pressure in bold move on the conflict’s chessboard.

How is this new territory for Saudi Arabia?

The recent attacks on Saudi Arabia have been the deadliest to hit the kingdom in a decade.

They also marked one of the most significant disruptions to Saudi civil aviation in years, forcing airlines across Europe and Asia to suspend services. Businesses in Riyadh’s financial hub have told employees to work remotely, authorities in Riyadh have asked schools to switch to online classes this week, and top energy executives were ⁠dropped from the schedule of a high-profile conference this week in the capital.

Though Saudi Arabia has intervened indirectly in conflicts around the Middle East and beyond for decades, violence has rarely struck the kingdom itself. In recent months, the country has found itself on a frontline, something its rulers have long sought to avoid.

Why couldn’t Riyadh stop the missiles?

Saudi Arabia has invested enormous sums in its military – the kingdom is the world’s eighth biggest spender on weapons – but Houthi attacks are very hard to stop.

“Saudi air defences have been able to intercept some Houthi missile and drone attacks, but Saudi Arabia is so large that it’s simply impossible for them to consistently defend themselves,” said Thomas Juneau, a security analyst at Ottawa University.

Other analysts point out that even the vaunted Israeli air defence systems failed to stop a ballistic missile narrowly missing Ben Gurion international airport last year.

Reprisals against the Houthis and efforts to pre-emptively destroy the movement’s offensive capabilities are not easy either. The US bombardment in 2025 showed how hard it is to destroy the militia’s capabilities, which have been much enhanced over recent years, in part through Iranian advice and investment.

What might happen next?

The Houthis say their actions were “guided by reciprocity” – suggesting they are responding to ongoing Saudi strikes on the territory they control in Yemen – but show no sign of stopping their attacks.

“Unless the Saudi enemy stops its aggression and interference in Yemen, worse is yet to come, God willing,” official statements carried by the Houthi-run al-Masirah television channel said.

It seems unlikely Saudi Arabia will halt its counterstrikes, and equally unlikely the kingdom will be able to find a way to block all incoming Houthi missiles, though it may improve its intelligence gathering and early warning to allow better defence of specific high-value targets.

Nor is there any imminent prospect of an end to the hostilities between Iran and the US that are a major factor in the surge of the recent violence in Yemen. And though the Houthis are more a coalition of different factions than a coherent single movement, for the moment they appear unified behind hardline and ideologically committed leaders.

Farea al-Muslimi, a specialist on Yemen and the Gulf at Chatham House in London, said the Houthis had been consistently underestimated over the years.

“They have really upped their game and believe they can get something now which will reposition them within the region. They are very confident at the moment and feeling empowered …. But though they think they can control this [escalation], that may well be an illusion,” he said.