АНУ-ын Ерөнхийлөгч Дональд Трамп Украйны хувь заяаг тус улсын оролцоогүйгээр ОХУ болон БНХАУ-тай хэлэлцэхээр төлөвлөж байгаа нь олон улсын зүгээс ихээхэн шүүмжлэл дагуулж байна.
ОХУ-ын Ерөнхийлөгч Владимир Путин дизель түлшний үнийг бууруулах наймааг Дональд Трамптай хийх замаар Украйны дайныг дуусгах гурван талт дээд хэмжээний уулзалтыг санаачилжээ. Энэхүү уулзалт нь Киевийг хэлэлцээрийн ширээнээс гадуур үлдээж, Москвагийн байр суурийг бэхжүүлэх эрсдэлтэй гэж шинжээчид үзэж байна. Түүнчлэн АНУ-ын хууль тогтоомжид ОХУ-ын эрчим хүчний импортыг хориглосон байдаг тул энэхүү хэлцэл нь дотоодын хууль зөрчсөн үйлдэл байж болзошгүй юм.
Украйн улс өөрийн ирээдүйг бие даан шийдвэрлэх эрхтэй бөгөөд АНУ-ын зүгээс Москвад буулт хийх нь НАТО-гийн амлалт болон Европын аюулгүй байдалд сөргөөр нөлөөлөхүйц үйлдэл болно гэж үзэж байна. Мөн Украйны цэргийн харилцаа холбоо, дроны ажиллагаанд ашигладаг Starlink хиймэл дагуулын системийн хүртээмжийг хязгаарлах шийдвэр Цагаан ордноос гарсан тухай мэдээлэл нь нөхцөл байдлыг улам хүндрүүлж байна.
Энэхүү гурван талт хэлэлцээрийн санаачилгыг түүхэн дэх “Гурван эзэн хааны холбоо”-той зүйрлэж байгаа бөгөөд хүчирхэг удирдагчдын хоорондын тохиролцоо нь удаан хугацааны тогтвортой шийдэлд хүргэх баталгаагүй гэдгийг судлаачид анхааруулж байна. Европын орнууд өөрсдийн аюулгүй байдлыг хангах үүднээс батлан хамгаалах чадавхаа бэхжүүлэх шаардлагатай тулгарч байгаа ч АНУ-тай харилцаагаа хадгалах нь стратегийн хувьд чухал хэвээр байна.
Дэлгэрэнгүйг эх сурвалжаас харах
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Does Vladimir Putin know exactly how to play DonaldTrump? The history of chummy phone calls, high-profile meetings and attempts to bring Russia in from the cold certainly suggests that Moscow’s thuggish ruler has a hold on this American president. If MrTrump agrees to negotiate Ukraine’s future with MrPutin and China’s Xi Jinping without Ukraine at thetable, he will have handed the Russian leader a victory before talks begin. The message will be that strongmen are ruling the world and determining the fate of weaker nations.
Ukraine has the right to determine its future. That right cannot be waved away by a self-serving Russian proposal, however much it indulges Mr Trump’s belief that world affairs should be settled by powerful men. The scales are falling from European eyes. Trumpian America is raising doubts about whether it will help deter aggression or even honour its Nato commitments. If Washington now rewards Moscow and pressures Ukraine to accept a raw deal, it would be a betrayal. European governments would wonder where America might be inthe future when their own security is threatened.
The Wall Street Journal laid out how Mr Putin is hoping to secure a diplomatic prize that dwarfs any US benefits. Mr Trump needs to bring down diesel prices before crucial midterm elections. So the Russianpresident has offered him a deal that helps the White House claim it is addressing such costs, despite most analysts saying that it won’t. In the same conversation, MrPutin suggested a summit to end the war in Ukraine that would elevate Moscow and exclude Kyiv. China could also gain recognition as adiplomatic mediator, while Europe would be left out of discussions about ending a war on its continent. Reports suggest that the three leaders could meet at next month’s Asia-Pacific EconomicCooperation summit in China.
American presidential power is meant to be constrained by law and democratic institutions. Mr Trump’s diesel deal appears to violate US law barring imports of Russian energy until Moscow ends its aggression against Ukraine. More Republicans should find the courage to stand up to their bullying president. While doing so, they might also ask why the order to limit a satellite system used by Ukraine for battlefield communications and drone operations reportedly came from the White House. Heated denials from the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, are no substitute for answers.
A transatlantic breakdown in relations between European powers and the US is not inevitable. Mr Trump’s national security strategy last year called Europe “strategically and culturally vital”. But it also demanded that the continent take responsibility for its own defence. European governments must prepare to meet that challenge.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Were Mr Trump to embrace Mr Putin’s trilateral summit, it would echo the Three Emperors’ League that brought together Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia in 1873. Germany sought to isolate defeated France and contain Austro-Russian rivalry, while monarchies sought to defend themselves against revolution. The original arrangement quickly unravelled. Revived in 1881, the league collapsed in 1887 as Vienna and Moscow failed to reconcile their Balkan ambitions. Agreement between powerful rulers provides no guarantee of a lasting settlement. Ukraine’s future cannot hang on bargains struck to stroke the egos of powerful men.
