Их Британийн Засгийн газрын төсвийн хариуцлагатай байдлын алба (OBR) Ойрхи Дорнод дахь зэвсэгт мөргөлдөөний улмаас тус улсын эдийн засгийн өсөлт саарч, иргэдийн амьжиргааны түвшин буурах эрсдэлтэй байгааг анхаарууллаа.
Сангийн сайд Жон Хилийн танилцуулсан шинэ төсөвт эрчим хүчний өндөр үнийн дарамтыг бууруулах зорилгоор иргэдэд тусламж олгох болон байгалийн хийн төлбөрийн суурь хураамжийг цуцлах зэрэг арга хэмжээг тусгажээ. Гэсэн хэдий ч OBR-ийн тайланд дурдсанаар, инфляцийг тооцсоны дараах өрхийн бодит орлого ирэх онд 0.6 хувиар буурах төлөвтэй байна. Ойрхи Дорнодын мөргөлдөөний улмаас газрын тосны үнэ баррель нь 70 ам.доллароос 115 гаруй ам.доллар болж, хийн үнэ гурав дахин өссөн нь эдийн засгийн гол хүндрэл болж байгааг албаныхан онцоллоо.
Их Британийн эдийн засаг 2026 оны эхний хагаст G7-ийн орнууд дундаа хамгийн өндөр өсөлттэй байсан ч ирэх онд эдийн засгийн өсөлтийн таамаглалыг 1.5 хувиас 1 хувь болгон бууруулжээ. Засгийн газар өрийн хүүгийн төлбөрт 14 тэрбум фунт стерлинг илүү зарцуулж байгаа нь дэлхийн санхүүгийн зах зээл дэх хямралын шууд үр дагавар юм. Төсвийн сахилга батын хүрээнд Засгийн газар төсвийн нөөцөө 23.6 тэрбум фунт стерлингээс 15 тэрбум фунт стерлинг болгон багасгахаас өөр аргагүй болсон байна.
OBR-ийн шинжээч Дэвид Майлс 2019 оноос хойш нэг хүнд ногдох бодит орлогын өсөлт бараг зогссоныг тэмдэглээд, энэ нь Их Британийн түүхэнд ховор тохиолдох үйл явц гэдгийг дурдлаа. Олон улсын нөхцөл байдал тодорхойгүй хэвээр байгаа тул эрчим хүчний үнийн өөрчлөлтөөс хамааран улсын зээллэг 17 тэрбум фунт стерлингээр нэмэгдэх эсвэл 12 тэрбум фунт стерлингээр буурах боломжтой байна. Засгийн газар эдийн засгийн хүндрэлийг даван туулахын тулд банкны салбарын татварыг түр хугацаагаар нэмэгдүүлж, дэмжлэгийн багцыг санхүүжүүлэхээр төлөвлөжээ.
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British households face a “grim picture” for living standards as the war in the Middle East drags down growth and triggers a fresh cost of living crisis, the government’s independent forecaster has said.
As John Healey announced his first budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) issued its report showing a sharp downgrade for growth in 2027, household disposable incomes and the public finances, despite the measures taken by the chancellor.
Although Healey sought to cushion the blow through “breathing space” policies to help with soaring energy costs, the watchdog said household disposable incomes after taking account of inflation would fall by 0.6% next year. The downgrade – compared with the 0.6% increase in disposable incomes that the OBR was forecasting in March – was driven mainly by higher energy costs.
While forecasting a modest recovery from next year, the OBR warned that families were facing among the weakest decades for growth in real household disposable income on records dating back to the 1960s.
Setting the stage for a tough election run-up for Labour, the watchdog said disposable incomes in 2029, after taking account of inflation, were on track to be only 1% higher than in 2019 – before the onset of the Covid pandemic.
“It’s a pretty grim picture”, David Miles of the OBR said.
“If you go back to just before Covid, and take that as your base, where we are right now – seven years later, is virtually no growth in per person real household disposable income,” he said.
“That’s pretty unusual in the history of the UK.”
As the impact from Donald Trump’s war hits British households, businesses and the government finances, Healey said the exchequer was spending £14bn more on debt interest as the financial market fallout from the conflict pushes up borrowing costs for countries worldwide.
Against a highly uncertain global backdrop, the chancellor said he would allow a hit to his buffer against the government’s fiscal rules – while also announcing a temporary rise in tax on banks to fund his package of energy support.
He left £15bn of headroom against the main fiscal rule, which requires day-to-day spending to be matched by tax receipts in three years’ time – down from £23.6bn left by his predecessor, Rachel Reeves, in the spring.
As a consequence, the OBR said borrowing was poised to fall to about 2% of GDP in the medium term but at a slower near-term pace than previous plans.
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As the energy price shock rippling out from the Middle East hits households and businesses, the OBR said consumers would face inflation of 3.5% this year, significantly higher than the 2% forecast in March.
Healey made helping families with the cost of living a core focus of his first budget, including £100 in blanket payments for 20 million households at a cost to the exchequer of £2.6bn and a plan to abolish standing charges on gas bills.
However, with the fallout from the war steadily mounting, the OBR warned that Britain’s resilience to the conflict that had been recorded so far this year would begin to fizzle out.
While it upgrades its growth forecast for this year from 1.1% to 1.2% after an unexpectedly resilient performance fuelled by AI investment, it slashed its estimate for next year from 1.5% to 1%.
Britain’s economy had shown more resilience than had been expected at the start of the Iran war, after recording the strongest rate of growth in the G7 in the first half of 2026. Official figures suggested a strong expansion in AI-related business activity as one factor behind the surprise rise.
Although saying he would never be complacent, Healey said there were “signs of resilience” in the economy as he highlighted that the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund had issued growth upgrades for the UK within recent months.
“There are real challenges ahead but Britain has beaten the forecasts this year, and with the action I am taking today I believe Britain can beat the forecasts again,” he said.
However, the economy is coming under mounting pressure from the energy price shock triggered by the war. Since the start of the US-Israeli led invasion of Iran at the end of February, which has throttled energy flows in the region, oil prices have risen from about $70 a barrel to more than $115, while gas prices have almost tripled.
With a tentative pause in the fighting while Trump prepares for crunch midterm elections, the OBR said the outlook for the economy, households and the UK public finances remained highly uncertain.
Suggesting there were “significantly better or worse outcomes of broadly equal probability”, it said that if energy prices were to rise to a higher and more sustained peak, government borrowing could be £17bn above the central forecast next year. However, a lower energy price path could reduce borrowing by £12bn.
