UFC Vegas 123 тэмцээний үндсэн тулаанууд болон бооцооны таамаг

UFC Vegas 123 goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 31, 2026) inside META APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event for this return to the APEX is Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan. Those two get the honours on Halloween.

The co-main event on Saturday features rising prospect Jacobe Smith taking on veteran Randy Brown. The main card also has Ode’ Osbourne vs. Cody Durden, Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov.

The ‘Prelims’ have the usual APEX fodder of Contender Series grads and fighters on losing streaks. Along those match-ups are Nick Klein vs. Joseph Kropschot and Zachary Reese vs. Mickey Gall.

There may not be quality, but there’s always quantity, so that means there are lots of fights to bet on this Saturday. Check out those odds below:

UFC Vegas 123 Main Card Money Line Odds

Renato Moicano (+102) vs. Tom Nolan (-122)

Moicano gets this main event slot to make up for missing out on the chance to fight Brian Ortega in September. His last fight was a main event, too, against his training partner Chris Duncan in April. Moicano big-brothered Duncan in that bout, finishing him with a rear naked choke in the second round (see it here). That saw Moicano rebound from his very lopsided loss to Beneil Dariush in 2025 (the only fight Dariush has won since 2022).

Nolan took a decision over Fares Ziam in June. That got him to 5-1 in UFC. The loss was a TKO to Nikolas Motta in his debut, since then he’s only won. He’s mostly won by decision, but he did submit Charlie Campbell last year and TKO Victor Martinez in 2024.

He probably hates it, but Moicano has landed a gatekeeper role with UFC now. That role probably means there are a few more APEX main event spots in his future. He shut the door on Duncan last time out and he’ll try and do the same against Nolan.

I think he probably manages to do that. I’m not super sold on Nolan. He takes too much damage, for me. He’s been hurt and knocked down in a handful of his early UFC fights. He’s shown a lot of toughness and heart to come back from those. But against better opponents, he likely won’t get those same opportunities.

All that being said, Nolan was very impressive against Ziam. He really wore Ziam out in the clinch and lit him up with some great leg kicks.

I think he might struggle to deal with Moicano’s defense, though. His 59 percent significant striking defense is very high. It puts him just outside the top ten at Lightweight. If Nolan struggles to impose his will in striking, then I think he’s at risk of Moicano imposing his will in grappling.

I think Moicano’s grappling is on another level compared to Nolan’s. He’s got a lot of fight IQ on the ground and he’s got a great killer instinct for snatching up submissions. He’s not a boring position over submission player. Nolan is leaky with his defense on the feet and I suspect he’s leaky with his grappling defense, too.

All that, to me, means Moicano has the clearest path to victory in this one.

Best bet: Renato Moicano moneyline (+102)

Randy Brown (+225) vs. Jacobe Smith (-278)

Brown is coming into this one off two losses. In April he dropped a decision to Kevin Holland, where he had to endure fifteen minutes of conversation with Trailblazer. Before that he was put to sleep by a Gabriel Bonfim knee (see it here). Those losses came after he scored a beautiful KO over Nicolas Dalby last year (see it here).

The 13-0 Smith has destroyed everyone he’s met in UFC thus far. He’s 4-0 in the big promotion with all finishes. Last time out he dominated Bruce Whitehead, who was brought in off the regional scene as a sacrificial lamb. Before that Smith ran over Josiah Harrell, who was coming in from LFA to take a beating.

2026 has been the Year of the Unc, the Year of the Underdog and the Year of the Fraud Check. Smith is going to try and avoid all of these and not add his name to the growing list of guys like Gable Steveson, Ateba Gautier, Malcolm Wellmaker and Yadier del Valle.

I think he will. And the big reason for that is that, unlike those other names, he’s not a one-trick pony. He has devastating striking, but he’s also a great wrestler — as we saw in his last fight, albeit against a tomato can. If you watched that fight you would have heard Daniel Cormier going on about how Smith is part of his fight team and how good his wrestling is.

The wrestling is probably going to cause Brown some problems. Historically, Brown has had good takedown defense, but at 36 and against a stud athlete, I think he’s probably going to get taken for a ride.

Brown does have a lot of length on Smith, so he might feel confident that he can keep him at range and do what he does best – distance fighting. But I just see Smith being too quick and being able to get inside and get a hold of Brown far too often.

I see Smith slamming Brown down and likely getting a finish. The round total for this is 1.5. I’m not sure about there being a first round finish in this one. Brown is a very crafty veteran after all. Instead I’ll take the point spread on Smith, expecting him to get a finish at some point.

Best bet: Jacobe Smith -7.5 (-190)

Ode’ Osbourne (-125) vs. Cody Durden (+105)

Osbourne’s last fight, with Alibi Idiris, is now a no contest after Idiris popped for something naughty. Osbourne had lots a unanimous decision on the night, back in February. Before that Osbourne lost to Steve Erceg, after his striking forced Erceg to wrestle. Osbourne is 5-7 and now 1 NC in UFC. His best win was a split decision over Charles Johnson in 2023.

Durden is 7-9-1 in UFC and has been very busy in the last two years, fighting eight times. He’s only 2-6 over that stretch, though. And he’s been finished four times across those bouts. Last time out Alessandro Costa submitted him (see that here). That was in July. Two months earlier he got a decision over Jafel Filho, in a short notice fight which was set at Bantamweight (he seemed to really benefit from that).

This is an interesting fight. Osbourne has been scuppered by wrestling lately. And Durden has been scuppered by striking. So, theoretically, the winner might be the man who imposed what he’s best at in this fight.

Osbourne has the fact that he knows he’s not a wrestler working in his favor. Durden, it seems, doesn’t know that he’s not a striker. Durden has tried to throw down with a few fighters and ended up getting wrecked (see his fights with Jose Ochoa and Joshua Van). In some fights Durden seems to have had some clarity and decided to work very hard to just use his wrestling. However, sometimes he’s been hit with the realization that his wrestling wasn’t up to snuff, like when Nyamjargal Tumendemberel schooled him on the ground.

Durden is running out of chances in UFC, so I’m hoping that he decides that this is the right match-up for him to use just his wrestling. If he does that, then I think Osbourne is going to have a very tough time in there.

Osbourne has been taken down in all seven of his last fights. He was taken down five times in that no contest with Idiris. Durden may get clipped coming in for takedowns, but I think he’s going to be able to put Osbourne on his back and keep him there.

Best bet: Cody Durden moneyline (+105)

Yana Santos (+185) vs. Luana Santos (-225)

The 36-year-old Yana Santos is on the best run of her career right now, with three wins in a row. Her victories are over Macy Chiasson, Miesha Tate and Chelsea Chandler. The former Invicta champ is now 7-5 in UFC.

Luana Santos is 6-1 in the promotion. She’s also on a three-fight winning streak. She took decisions over Karol Rosa and Melissa Croden, as well as a sick Americana on Tainara Lisboa (see that here). She’s ten years younger than Yana.

Yana has looked pretty good lately, but I think Luana is the toughest opponent she’s seen in quite some time. Yana is going to hope to pick away from range, doing her best Alexander Volkov impression. However, she doesn’t have Big Volk’s takedown defense. She’s only stuffed 51 percent of the takedowns she’s faced. That’s pretty below average. She was taken down four times by Holly Holm, for Pete’s sake.

Luana, who lands 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes, is probably going to get her down and have her in some submission trouble. Luana is top ten in the division for top position time and takedowns landed.

Yana does lead the division with sig. strike accuracy, but without stopping power, I don’t care that much about that. I think Yana’s activity on the feet is just going to open up more opportunities for Luana to take her down.

Best bet: Luana Santos moneyline (-225)

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-245) vs. Farman Hasanov (+200)

Lebosnoyani has had a great start to life in UFC. He wowed on Contender Series last year and then won a split decision over Phil Rowe in his proper debut. In July he beat formerly hyped top prospect Seok Hyeon Ko by unanimous decision. He’s on a six fight winning streak, extending back to his LFA days.

Hasanov is only 5-0 as a pro. He debuted in UFC in June on his hometown Baku card. There he took a unanimous decision over Eric Nolan. He had fought in LFA prior to that.

I’m pretty high on Lebosnoyani. He’s comfortable everywhere and he has a great jiu-jitsu game, which we’ve not seen much of yet. Hasanov is a low intensity, smothering wrestler, who is conflict avoidant on the feet. He landed 17 takedowns in his debut and just two sig. strikes on the ground. If Hasanov wins this one, then it’s probably going to be a very boring fight.

I like Lebosnoyani’s chances, though.

He outwrestled Ko in his last fight. Ko’s wrestling had looked superb up until then. I think Hasanov is a better wrestler than Ko, so I don’t think Lebosnoyani will out-wrestle him, but I do think Lebosnoyani is going to be able to prevent himself from getting laid on top of for three minutes at a time.

Lebosnoyani is actually yet to be taken down inside the Octagon. I doubt he keeps that streak going on Saturday, but I also think he’s going to be able to reduce the number of times he is taken down and the time he spends on the ground.

Because of that, I think we’re going to be spending more time on the feet than Hasanov would prefer. And that really favors Lebosnoyani.

Best bet: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani moneyline (-245)

UFC Vegas 123 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Francis Marshall (-258) vs. Dakota Hope (+210)

Marshall won a decision over Lucas Brennan in April. That followed his rear naked choke win over Erik Silva in February. He should be on a three fight winning streak, after the judges botched his split decision loss to Mairon Santos last year.

Hope debuted in UFC in April and dropped a split decision to Kai Kamaka III. That was his first time on any UFC property.

Marshall is a good well-rounded fighter whose wrestling has helped him with all his UFC wins. Hope is a very busy kickboxer who loves to move forwards, clinch and use Muay Thai. I don’t think that’s going to work well against Marshall, who can level change and take him down as he comes forwards or find a bodylock when they clinch.

We’ve not really seen what Hope does on his back. If Marshall gets him there, I suspect he might end up looking a bit like a turtle.

Best bet: Francis Marshall moneyline (-258)

Rodrigo Sezinando (-180) vs. Theodor Berggren (+150)

Sezinando has been out for just over a year. His only proper UFC fight to date was his TUF finale losing effort opposite Daniil Donchenko. He was TKO’d there (see it here) and that was the only stoppage loss of his career.

Berggren debuted in June, as a short notice opponent for Donchenko. He also lost to the Ukrainian by TKO (see it here).

This fight really doesn’t need to be happening in a UFC cage. We’ve got a losing TUF finalist against a short replacement who lost his first bout. These two are both totally unproven at this level. I suppose that balances things out.

I think Berggren seemed to be a bit more of an interesting fighter than Sezinando. He’s also got some decent size for the division. I think we’re getting a pretty forgettable fight between these two, though. I’ll take Berggren and the plus odds.

Best bet: Theodor Berggren moneyline (+150)

Julian Erosa (+154) vs. Jeong Yeong Lee (-185)

Erosa was torched by Lerryan Douglas in March (see it here), during UFC’s stop to Erosa’s home state of Washington. Before that he lost a decision to Melquizael Costa, while earning a Fight of the Night bonus. Those losses spoiled a nice little run of wins for Erosa. They also dropped him to 9-9 on his UFC career.

Lee lost a decision to Daniel Santos in his last fight. That was all the way back in May 2025. He was due to fight Gaston Bolanos in March, but a botched weight cut ruined that. His only UFC wins were back in 2024 and 2023.

We’ve seen some good results for retirement fight fighters lately, with Niko Price (possibly), Michael Chiesa and Cub Swanson. These were booked as retirement fights and those guys were all given lay-ups to help them get a win and then ride off into the sunset.

Erosa has not been given a lay-up here. But it’s also not a big mismatch. I think this is a close fight, but Erosa having one foot out the door has me wanting to fade him.

Lee has been out a while and will be desperate for a win. He’s been decent in UFC, but not looked that special at anything. The most notable thing he has done is getting shelled by Hyder Amil for a Tekken-like finish two fights ago.

I’m going to take Erosa here and that’s because I’m choosing to ignore all the context around the fight and just look at the skill set. I think Erosa can match Lee on the feet, but also has a big advantage on the ground.

Best bet: Julian Erosa moneyline (+154)

Nick Klein (+250) vs. Joseph Kropschot (-310)

Klein is still looking for his first win in UFC (not including his Contender Series win in 2024). This is his first appearance this year. In 2025 he was finished by both Andrey Pulyaev and Mansur Abdul-Malik.

Kropschot won a decision over Jon Kunneman on Contender Series in August. He’s a former LFA champion He won the belt in February after upsetting the previously undefeated David Allakhverdiev.

I’m a little surprised to see Kropschot as such a big favorite here. He was getting touched up by Kunneman and his decision win was really close. Kropschot also benefited from having a big size and reach advantage over the more compact Kunneman. Kropschot almost got a submission in the last ten seconds of that round, but Kunneman refused to tap to a deep armbar and may have ended up taking a lot of damage in doing so.

Klein is long like Kropschot. If Kunneman could bloody up Kropschot, then I imagine Klein could do the same (and worse). That’s enough for me to take the underdog here against someone who is still untested at this level.

Best bet: Nick Klein moneyline (+250)

Talita Alencar (+210) vs. Piera Rodriguez (-258)

Alencar has won three straight in UFC, with her most recent win being a unanimous decision over Julia Polastri. Before that she submitted Ariane Carnelossi and decisioned Vanessa Demopoulos.

Rodriguez took a decision over Sam Hughes in March. That gave her a three win streak, too. Her other wins are over Ketlen Souza and Josefine Knutsson.

This is a rare grappler vs. grappler match from UFC. It’s different shades of grappling, though, with Alencar being a BJJ player and Rodriguez being more of a freestyle wrestler.

Alencar has been able to style on some girls who aren’t as savvy on the ground. But I think she has a very tough task in the form of Rodriguez. I think Rodriguez is going to be the one in top position most often in this fight and her submission defense should keep her out of trouble there. She’s also a much bigger woman than Alencar, so that extra weight and muscle is going to make it difficult for Alencar to implement her game.

Best bet: Piera Rodriguez moneyline (-258)

Tainara Lisboa (+105) vs. Lucia Szabova (-700)

Lisboa has lost her last two in UFC, to tie her record in the promotion at 2-2. Those two losses were a TKO under Melissa Croden and an Americana courtesy of Luana Santos. Her wins are over Ravena Oliveira and Jessica-Rose Clark.

Szabova has been signed from OKTAGON, where she was a two division champion. She defended the Bantamweight title in August, beating former UFC fighter Lucia Pudilova in what was billed as the biggest women’s fight ever in European MMA. She’s 12-0 in MMA with a very violent reputation, having won by decision just three times. She’s got a lot of experience in Muay Thai and kickboxing, too.

I’m really high on Szabova. She’s been the best woman, not named Dakota Ditcheva, fighting outside the UFC for a while. She’s also very fun to watch. I’m expecting her to get the win here and possibly a finish.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-135)

Zach Reese (-325) vs. Mickey Gall (+260)

Reese is currently riding the first two-loss streak of his UFC career. In July he was finished by Ryan Gandra (see it here). Before that he lost a split decision to Michel Pereira, in a very dull fight. His last win was a POTN earning submission over Jackson McVey (see it here).

Gall is on a four fight losing streak and hasn’t appeared since 2024. That’s when he was knocked out cold by Ramiz Brahimaj (see it here). The other names on his losing streak are Bassil Hafez, Mike Malott and Alex Morono. The CM Punk destroyer now has a 7-7 pro record, with all but one win coming inside UFC.

Gall’s striking deficiencies and durability issues are making him a tough watch at the moment. With how aggressive and hard hitting Reese is, I think we could see a repeat of the head kick KO Reese hit Julian Marquez with. Gall’s biggest strength is on the ground, but Reese is good enough there that it’s not something Gall can really rely on. I think he’s getting his fifth straight loss here and probably his release from the company after that.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-195)

UFC Vegas 123 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Renato Moicano by Submission in Round 2 (+700)

I like Moicano and think he has a big advantage on the ground against Tom Nolan. Nolan has been lacking, defensively, despite his rise up the rankings. I think he might get caught with Moicano on his back at some point.

Cody Durden to win a Split or Majority Decision (+1200)

I think Cody Durden and Ode’ Osbourne is going to be a close fight. I think Osbourne will win exchanges on the feet and that Durden will suck up some control time on the ground. If both those things happen in a single round, then they could be tough to score. I think Durden might just do enough, but I also think there’s a good chance it goes right down to the wire.

Two-bet parlay: Luana Santos by Submission and Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO/DQ (+1004)

I think Luana Santos is going to put her namesake out to pasture on Saturday and will do it with her grappling advantage. And I think Smith is the real deal and that his wrestling and ground and pound will spell the end of Randy Brown’s evening.

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