UFC Vegas 123 арга хэмжээний гол тулаануудын урьдчилсан тойм

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcomingUFC Vegas 123mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Oct. 31, 2026) onParamount+from insideMeta Apexin Las Vegas, Nevada.UFC Vegas 123features a lightweight main event between 155-pound contenders Renato MoicanoandTom Nolan, a five-round showdown that could shake upthe division Top 10.

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 170-pound collision between welterweight veteranRandy Brown and hard-hitting up-and-comer Jacobe Smith, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 123 main card by clickinghere. Get all the latest “Moicano vs. Nolan” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel righthere. For complete UFC Vegas 123 live results and play-by-play clickhere.

155 lbs.: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan

Renato “Moicano” Carneiro
Record: 21-7-1 |Age: 37 |Betting line: -118
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 11 SUB, 8 DEC |Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’11” |Reach: 72” |Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.10 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.55 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 1.68 (40% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 64%
Current Ranking: No. 8 |Last fight: Submission win over Chris Duncan

Tom “Big Train” Nolan
Record: 11-1 |Age: 26 |Betting line: -102
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 5 DEC |Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’3“ |Reach: 73” |Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.84 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.74 | Striking Defense: 48%
Takedown Average: 1.08 (26% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 58%
Current Ranking: No. 11 |Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Fares Ziam at UFC Vegas 118

Renato Carneiro is currently ranked in the Top 10 and can be considered something of a gatekeeper based on his dominance against the lower half of the division and complete incompetence against the upper half. Carneiro was steamrolled by Islam Makhachev and dominated by Beneil Dariush. The former doesn’t need much of an explanation — Makhachev is that good — but the skidding Dariush was able to prevail because Carneiro doesn’t have knockout power, so Dariush just spammed takedowns and went up five-zip in the wrestling. That said, “Moicano” is a pretty good wrestler himself and uses offensive wrestling to set up his submission attacks. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under coach Alex Leleco has double-digit submission wins, though he also registered back-to-back technical knockout victories over Benoit Saint Denis and Jalin Turner in 2024. Even without the ability to land a one-hitter quitter, Carneiro is a black belt in Muay Thai and knows how to throw punishing knees and elbows. He turns 38 in May but he looked good enough to hang with anyone in his submission win over Chris Duncan at UFC Vegas 115 back in April.

“That win was very important to me,” Carneiro told UFC.com. “I was coming off two losses, and then I beat Chris Duncan in a very good fashion, and here I am to beat Tom Nolan in a very good fashion too. I’m expecting a very hard fight. He’s a very good fighter, well-rounded, striking, grappling. I just think I’m better. I needed to adjust. I needed to get training partners of the same height and same style, so that’s what we did, and I think we did a great job in the training camp. So we have to wait for Saturday and see. I have to be very careful in the first round, and then I think the fight’s going to play out in my favor. I don’t really know if [my experience] makes any difference. If he had a good training camp, good coaches, they’re gonna try to show him the way to fight, and it is what it is. It’s a fight. Anything can happen.”

Tom Nolan had a sensational outing on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2023, stopping Bogdan Grad by way of first-round knockout. Naturally, matchmakers fast-tracked Nolan for his UFC debut at UFC Vegas 84, where Nolan was summarily destroyed by hard-hitting Brazilian bruiser Nikolas Motta. Fortunately, the Aussie was able to rebound and has since rattled off five-straight wins with a pair of first-round finishes, though you could argue that his competition has been mediocre, at best. To wit, three of the five lightweights he defeated during that span are no longer signed to the promotion and the other two are not ranked in the Top 15, which makes you wonder how Nolan scored the No. 11 spot. “Big Train” is tall for a lightweight and scrappy when it counts, so this is probably going to be an exciting fight. I just don’t think Nolan has the experience or the resume to prepare him for Carneiro, who’s already fought (and defeated) some of the best lightweights in the world.

“It’s manifestation,” Nolan said at the UFC Vegas 123 media day. “I called him out. The (Brian) Ortega fight got put together, I was like, ‘Oh, that sucks.’ But I was actually conscious of the fact that I thought Ortega would probably pull out. I accepted the fight on a week’s notice. That didn’t end up happening. But more time is definitely beneficial, so here we are. I still think he’s world-class. I wouldn’t have called him out if I thought he was a shell of himself. I would never want to fight someone and beat them when they aren’t at their best version. That’s just not who I am. I think he’s awesome. I think he’s a very tough challenge. I’m excited. Obviously, fighting a legend and a hero of mine growing up is a cool thing. But ultimately, it’s the ranking I’m coming for. It’s the progression of my career. When we’re in there on Saturday, it’s not going to matter who’s in front of me.”

It’s going to matter in a way that Nolan probably isn’t prepared for. I think he makes the first round a very difficult hill to climb for the older Carneiro, but sooner or later Nolan is going to make a mistake that is indicative of his age and experience as a UFC fighter — and “Moicano” is going to make him pay for it.

Prediction: Carneiro def. Nolan by submission

170 lbs.: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith

Randy “Rude Boy” Brown
Record: 20-8 |Age: 36 |Betting line: +230
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 7 DEC |Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’3“ |Reach: 78” |Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.39 | Striking accuracy: 47%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.35 | Striking Defense: 53%
Takedown Average: 0.71 (34% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 74%
Current Ranking: Unranked |Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Kevin Holland at UFC 327

Jacobe “Cobe” Smith
Record: 13-0 |Age: 30 |Betting line: -245
Wins: 10 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC |Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’10“ |Reach: 72” |Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.91 | Striking accuracy: 67%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.77 | Striking Defense: 50%
Takedown Average: 7.92 (85% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 100%
Current Ranking: Unranked |Last fight: Knockout win over Bruce Whitehead at UFC 332

Randy Brown has been fighting in UFC for more than a decade, making his Octagon debut with a unanimous decision win over Matt Dwyer at UFC on FOX 18 back in early 2016. That’s the same event that saw Anthony Johnson knock out Ryan Bader just to put that timeline in perspective. Johnson is now dead and Bader’s career is not far behind, but the point I’m trying to make is that Brown has been slogging along at 170 pounds for over 10 years and is not currently ranked in the division Top 15. Now 36, I don’t expect that to change before his career comes to a close and matchmakers are now using him as a stepping stone for new talent with something to prove. Brown carries most of the blame, losing three of his last four, but he remains a tough out and brings a considerable height (five inches) and reach (six inches) advantage into tomorrow night’s contest. That said, neither of those advantages will come into play if he can’t stop his opponent from taking him down.

“This is probably his step up now,” Brown said at the UFC Vegas 123 media day. “I thought maybe the UFC felt he needed a step up, and I guess I’m the guy to go out there and test him. For sure, this will be new territory for him. He’s a talented dude. But I definitely offer something that he’s never seen before. And it’s going to be tough for him. I’ve got so much more left and so much more to do. There’s moments where I came short, and I need to go back and correct those. The confidence hasn’t wavered, and my goal remains the same, and I show up and prepare and do what I need to do every time. I’m going to go out there, and I’m going to put a stop to it. The prediction is pain. The prediction is I’m going to go out there and do some damage. I’m going to get my hand raised no matter where we are. I’m going to go and get it done. I’m going to open him up, and we’re going to get this W.”

Jacobe Smith was a state champion wrestler in high school who went on to become a two-time NJCAA National Champion for Northeastern Oklahoma A&M College before moving on to Oklahoma State University, where he captured NCAA Division-1 All American honors. Not surprisingly, Smith averages nearly eight takedowns per 15 minutes of action. Smith made a strong impression on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2024, obliterating Christien Savoie with hellacious elbows in the second stanza. Since then, Smith has looked unstoppable, racking up four straight wins with four nasty finishes — three within the opening frame. I don’t think any songs will be written about his quality of opposition but you can’t expect a fresh-faced newcomer to jump right into the Top 15, so he was exactly where he was supposed to be. I think we can make that same argument here as well. Brown is not ranked but has a decade of experience against some of the biggest names in the business and can hang anywhere the fight goes.

Spoiler alert: it’s going to the floor.

“I’m becoming another evolution of myself that’s for the greater,” Smith told UFC.com. “I’m noticing it, the company is noticing it, family and friends are noticing it. It’s just: a happy ‘Cobe’ is great for everybody in the world. I’ve hit a threshold where I’m getting into that next level. I’m developing as a fighter technically, becoming more financially stable to where I can take care of my family. That’s always great. So, I’m getting to where life is just becoming more calm for me. I know I could get much better. There’s some spots where I know I wanted to polish a little bit more, but I’m content with where I’m at this moment because I’ve developed very well in my striking, and even in my wrestling. Every match is about getting better with me. There’s always something that I’m working on. It’s nothing specific, but just staying dominant. Whatever I got to do to get that win and keep this fight running. I’ll be damned if I’ll let somebody take something from me. It’s not happening anytime soon.”

As we learned from the Gable Steveson experiment, amazing wrestlers with knockout power can be slept if they don’t bother with defense, so this is not a lock by any stretch of the imagination. At the same time, Smith as the -245 betting favorite feels appropriate. Brown has a good chin and a big heart, he’s just not equipped to deal with the offense or the pace Smith will bring on fight night.

Prediction: Smith def. Brown by technical knockout

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 123 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.