Томми Робинсоныг сэтгүүлчдийг дарамталсан хэргээр буруутайд тооцлоо

The verdict was met with a groan from Tommy Robinson’s supporters, who had sat behind the dock throughout his harassment trial.

It took more than 11 hours of jury deliberations to find the far-right activist guilty of harassment causing fear of violence to two journalists, enough time for a band of lieutenants and hangers-on to get their hopes up that he might be acquitted.

Yet as Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, potentially faces up to 10 years in prison, another narrative has now taken hold. A miscarriage of justice has taken place, according to messages pumped out across his own media platforms and the ecosystem of self-styled “citizen journalists”. Some carried wild commentary during the trial, including from Robinson himself, who wondered aloud about a “Muslim” member of the jury.

Other voices have since joined in, including Reform UK members and Rupert Lowe, the leader of the Restore Britain party and Nigel Farage’s main rival for hard-right voters. “Tommy Robinson has been found guilty – it is my view that the system has, again, treated him unfairly. We live in dark times,” tweeted Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth.

Evidence at Southwark crown court heard how Robinson used what the prosecution described as “bullyboy, intimidatory tactics” against Daily Mail reporters Andrew Young and Jacob Dirnhuber after they reported on his alleged role influencing the 2024 Southend riots.

They were forced to employ security or leave their homes, while a statement from Young’s daughter told of encounters outside the family address with men believed to have been sent by Robinson, a self-styled champion of women’s safety.

Robinson also admitted “paying” for the personal number of the editor of the Daily Mail, Ted Verity, who was left a message in which Robinson threatened to make the paper’s journalists and their families “famous”.

While Robinson will learn his fate on 16 December, there are now wider implications for Britain’s far right. If he goes to jail again, the far right will be deprived of its most effective and – arguably – most charismatic leader, with little or no apparent replacement.

The obvious heir apparent is anti-migrant activist Daniel Thomas, AKA Danny Tommo, the leader of the Patriot Platform movement that has brought groups of masked men on to the streets of Dover and other towns this year. He, however, is in custody ahead of a trial over the alleged slashing of a dinghy in the Channel.

“With the Robinson conviction and Thomas being away there is definitely a leadership void in the anti-migrant space, with no obvious significant figure who can step in,” said Joe Mulhall, director of research at Hope Not Hate, which has closely monitored the recent targeting of asylum accommodation and Robinson’s own rallies.

“It’s a really disparate scene made up of lots of little groupuscules, and I think the most likely thing we will see are lots of ad hoc actions being taken by various self-styled ‘patriot groups’. That can be harder to monitor and police, but this conviction is clearly a big blow for the movement nationally.”

The wind has also been taken out of the sails of the anti-migrant movement by other police arrests, including in connection with vandalism attacks targeting houses in multiple occupation (HMOs).

Of continuing concern to observers of the far right is the role of Elon Musk, who Robinson once again thanked for bankrolling his legal expenses after the multibillionaire owner of X was credited with supporting the activist’s terror charges acquittal last year.

One day alone at Southwark court cost £20,000, Robinson told supporters, a drop in the ocean to Musk. Perhaps not surprisingly, others on the far right have been eyeing up that aid.

Question marks now hover over a supposed pivot by Robinson and others around him towards encouraging a voter registration drive by their supporters, though Mulhall points out that Robinson had already appeared to be struggling with this year’s takeoff of protests.

“Patriot Platform suddenly emerged and you could see him [Robinson] scrambling to try to keep up with a support base who had already become quite impatient with what they viewed as his money-making grift,” Mulhall said. Over recent weeks, Robinson’s X feed has been taken up with reposting old footage of him confronting journalists and others in a bid to reinforce his direct action credentials.

One figure who is looking over his shoulder at Robinson, however, is Farage. The Reform UK leader responded with sarcasm when asked about the conviction, and he has clearly changed his party’s policy on permitting members who support Robinson.

Divisions could reignite between figures such as Richard Tice, vocal in the past about not wanting to have anything to do with Robinson and “his lot”, and Reform members embracing the narrative that he has become a martyr.

Meanwhile, Robinson faces up to 10 years in prison, in the worst case, although sentencing guidelines provide a wide range of flexibility to Mr Justice Cavanagh, who will first consider culpability.

A specialist criminal law barrister told the Guardian that at least two “high culpability” factors could be considered. Robinson telling journalists he was coming to get them could amount to “conduct intended to maximise fear or distress”, while hiring an investigator suggested a “high degree of planning and/or sophisticated offence”.

“In terms of harm, I suspect it will be seen in the most serious category, particularly as at least one victim moved house as a result,” the barrister said. “When it comes to the type of sentence, Robinson’s problems are that his track record of previous offences raises questions about the prospect of rehabilitation. There is also a lack of strong personal mitigation and he presents an ongoing risk, namely to journalists who say something he disagrees with.

“The judge might decide that, given the current prison overcrowding crisis, a suspended sentence will suffice. If it’s suspended for the full three years in line with guidelines, it could well have a greater impact on reining in his behaviour.”