Энэ улирлын эхний гурван долоо хоногийн үзүүлэлтүүдэд үндэслэн 9-cat лигийн хүрээнд анхаарал татаж буй тоглогчдыг онцолж байна.
Майами Хит багийн Давион Митчелл энэ улиралд тоглолтын найруулагчийн хувиар гайхалтай тоглолтыг үзүүлж байна. Драфтын үеэр 120 орчимд сонгогдсон тэрээр одоогоор нэг тоглолтод дунджаар 8.5 дамжуулалт өгч лигт тавдугаарт бичигдэж байгаа бөгөөд онооны дундаж нь 16-аас давж, 2.2 ширхэг гурван онооны шидэлтийг амжилттай гүйцэтгэж байна. Миннесота Тимберволвс багийн Айо Досунму ч мөн Энтони Эдвардсыг байхгүйд хариуцлагатай тоглож, 52 хувийн шидэлттэйгээр 18.1 оноо, 4.9 самбараас бөмбөг авалт, 4.1 дамжуулалт, 1.3 бөмбөг таслалтыг 31 минутын турш үзүүлж байна.
Нью Орлеанс Пеликанс багийн Зион Уильямсон будагтай талбайгаас дунджаар 14.1 оноо авч, 63 хувийн шидэлтийн хувьтай тоглож байгаа нь түүнийг 9-cat чансааны 22-р байрт хүргэлээ. Хьюстон Рокетс багийн Жабари Смит Жр. өөрийн карьерын хамгийн өсөлттэй улирлыг үдэж, дунджаар 17.0 оноо авч, гурван онооны шидэлтийн хувиа 45 хувьд хүргэсэн бол Финикс Санс багийн Майлс Брижес 15 оноо, 7 самбараас бөмбөг авалт, 3 дамжуулалтын дундажтайгаар чансааны 27-р байрт эрэмбэлэгдэж байна.
Нөгөөтэйгүүр, Орландо Мэжикийн Десмонд Бэйн 136-р байр руу ухарч, нийт шидэлтийн хувь нь 37 хувьд хүртэл буурсан нь түүний гурван онооны шидэлтэд хэт найдаж байгаатай холбоотой. Милуоки Бакс багийн Кел’эл Вэр тоглолтын цаг нь багассанаар 17.3 минутад дунджаар 8.6 оноо, 6.9 самбараас бөмбөг авалттай тоглож байна. Кливленд Кавалерс багийн Жэймс Харден 36 хувийн шидэлттэйгээр 5.7 дамжуулалт өгч уналттай байгаа ч түүнийг бага үнэлгээтэй үед худалдан авах боломж гэж үзэж болох юм.
Милуоки Бакс багийн Райан Роллинс сэлгээний бүрэлдэхүүнд шилжиж 10.7 оноо, 38 хувийн шидэлттэй тоглож байгаа бол Нью Йорк Никс багийн Микал Брижес 33 хувийн шидэлттэйгээр 6 оноо авч, тоглолтын итгэлгүй байдлыг харуулж байна. Эдгээр тоглогчийн үзүүлэлтүүд нь 8-11 тоглолтын дээж дээр үндэслэсэн rest-of-season буюу улирлын үлдсэн хэсгийн төсөөлөл юм.
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We’re into Week 4, and below is my 9-cat riser and faller list through Week 3, featuring five risers and five fallers. Ranks are my rest-of-season 9-cat projections, not a summary of who’s performed best so far. Stats are through Nov. 9 (about 8–11 games played per player), so sample sizes are still small.
📈 Risers
Davion Mitchell – PG, Miami Heat
Mitchell has become one of the NBA’s top playmakers. Not bad for a guy who went around pick 120 during draft season. His 8.5 assists a night rank fifth in the league, with a potential 14.8 assists per game. That’s just the passing. His shot volume has almost doubled, boosting his scoring to over 16 points per game, along with 2.2 3s. And he’s still getting steals, averaging over 1 per outing. The only knock to his game is his free-throw shooting. Playing high minutes on a team with little creation outside of Giannis Antetokounmpoand sometimes Pelle Larsson, Mitchell has real staying power as a PG anchor. He ranks near the top-50 in both points and 9-cat through three weeks.
Ayo Dosunmu – PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
It’s a luxury for the Timberwolves to have a player of Ayo’s caliber to step in for Anthony Edwards. He’s been a model of efficiency for years and has been impactful whenever he saw an increase in minutes and opportunity. That tracks with what we’ve seen from Dosunmu this season. Dosunmu is shooting 52% from the field and 89% at the line, scoring 18.1 points, grabbing 4.9 rebounds, and adding 4.1 assists, while still tacking on 1.9 3s and 1.3 steals in 31 minutes. As long as Edwards is out, Ayo is a top-40 player in 9-cat and top-60 in High Score, averaging over 36 fantasy points per night.
Zion Williamson – PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans
Health is wealth. So far, Zion is pacing to last season’s numbers — similar shot volume, but excelling in the paint. Zion is fourth in the league in points in the paint, averaging 14.1 per game. Zion is shooting 63% while getting to the line 7.2 times a game. Bully ball. Also, his steal rate is pacing to a career high, with over 2 per game. That number is bound to regress, but the combination of his high FG and steal rates, improving free-throw percentage (76.4) and scoring over 20 ppg with 5 boards is what’s elevated him to 22nd in 9-cat, 34th in points and 43rd in High Score. I’d sell high in each format except for High Score.
Jabari Smith Jr. – PF/C, Houston Rockets
Smith is in the midst of a breakout campaign. Through 11 games, everything is clicking for the third pick of the 2022 NBA Draft. He’s averaging 17.0 points, 6.5 boards, 2.7 3s, 50% shooting, 45% on 3s and 86% at the line. There’s even been a boost in assists to almost 3 per game. I think it’s more of a testament to Fred VanVleet’s leadership and opening up the floor for the supporting cast to operate more freely. Smith’s success has been one of the biggest surprises three weeks into the season. A couple more weeks of this level of play and he might be able to fetch something real on the fantasy trade market.
Miles Bridges – SF/PF, Phoenix Suns
Bridges is definitely a riser in 9-cat leagues. He’s currently 27th, averaging 15-7-3 with 45/33/87 shooting splits. He’s also getting over a steal per contest. Now, while those numbers are solid, I don’t trust he’ll be able to keep this up all season. The supporting cast outside of Booker has been dreadful. I expect their improvements will alter some of Bridges’ success to date. Bridges’ rebounding numbers are pacing to the best of his career, as is his low turnover rate. But top-30 (and top 70 in High Score and points formats) is too good to be true. Sell, sell, sell.
📉 Fallers
Desmond Bane – SG/SF, Orlando Magic
What happened to this man? He’s become Toumani Camara; 67% of Bane’s shots have come from beyond the arc. He’s still knocking down 3.6 a game, but he’s shooting 37% overall and 36% from 3. His turnovers are up to 2.6 per contest and he’s providing just 2.4 assists for a guy who went 53rd in ADP. His 15 shots per game is consistent with his past couple of seasons. The main difference is the shot diet — chucking 3s, taking half the amount of 2-point FGs and not going to the line nearly enough — a recipe for disaster and it’s why he’s 136th in 9-cat.
Kel’el Ware – PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks
This one hurts, and the culprit is minutes. Ware is down to 17.3 a game after playing 22.2 last season, and 8.6 points and 6.9 rebounds on 40% shooting won’t cut it. He’s only played more than 20 minutes in two of 11 games this season. Bucks head coach Taylor Jenkins isn’t giving him much leeway, similar to how Spoelstra handled him, likely because of the same mental lapses that frustrated coaches in Miami. I hyped him up, but that ADP in the high 70s always looked a bit sus considering he’s still behind Myles Turner. It’s a long season, but I understand if fantasy managers want to drop him.
James Harden – PG/SG, Cleveland Cavaliers
Harden looks old. His scoring and assist numbers have fallen off a cliff — he’s shooting just 36% from the field and averaging 5.7 assists (down significantly from his career averages). Turnovers are still an issue at 3.0 per game, which hurts in multiple categories, and the free-throw attempts have dropped to just 4.8 a game. There’s legitimate reason to be concerned about how he’s moving and producing, but I still see him as a buy-low. This feels more like an early-season slump than a full-on panic. If you can acquire him at a discount, now is the time to try.
Ryan Rollins – PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks
A season ago, Rollins was a 32-minute guy averaging 17 points. Now he’s playing 23 minutes and putting up 10.7 points on 38% shooting and 67% from the line and, more importantly, was passed on the depth chart by Brayden Burries. I have him 135th, but I’m giving him some grace in my latest rankings, expecting he’ll turn it around somewhat — even if he’s coming off the bench. He’s much closer to a top-120 player than to 200, which is roughly where he sits in 9-cat through three weeks.
Mikal Bridges – SF/PF, New York Knicks
Six points a game on 33% shooting. That’s the line, and it’s ugly. Bridges put up 14.4 points on 49% shooting last season, so outside of his availability, he’s giving fantasy managers nothing. I haven’t found a good reason for it yet. He’s playing 26 minutes a night with no offensive confidence and minimal stocks to save him on defense. I have him 134th, which is generous. Hold only if you have the bench space and the patience; otherwise, move on, especially in points leagues.
Full 9-cat rest-of-season rankings
