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Free-agent market: Top 25 | shooting guards | small forwards

The NBA’s free-agent point guard market may be the strongest position overall, with two All-Stars adding star power to the group (even if they’re likely to stay put) plus at least six potential starters who are likely to be unrestricted free agents. Several plus backups dot the market after that, based on my BORD$ valuations. (More on the methodology here.)

As always, I’ve included all free agents and potential free agents because of player options, team options and non-guaranteed contracts, except for absurd cases where there is no chance of a player being waived and — importantly — also no chance for other cap shenanigans by declining options and signing new contracts. For one example, Miami won’t be waiving ball hawk Dru Smith from his non-guaranteed minimum deal.

(PO = player option; TO = team option; NG = non-guaranteed; PG = partial guarantee; POPG = player option, partial guarantee; R = restricted; R-2w = restricted two-way)

Tier 1: Max guys

None

Tier 2: More than MLE, less than max

1. James Harden, Cleveland (POPG): $36,396,260

Harden has a complicated contract structure that contains both a player option for $42 million and a partial guarantee that lets the Cavs sever him for just $13.3 million if he picks up the option.

You probably needn’t worry about either, as it is in both Harden’s and the Cavs’ interests to decline the option and ink a new deal, likely in the range of two years and $65 million to $70 million. That arrangement would slightly lessen the Cavs’ imposing salary obligations for the coming season while giving Harden a bit more long-term insurance (at least to the extent that’s possible entering an age-37 season). Either way, it would be stunning if he’s anywhere but Cleveland on opening night.

2. Trae Young, Washington (PO): $29,495,966

I’ve probably seen more of Young over the last half-decade than anybody who doesn’t either work for the Hawks or cover them full-time. He’s definitely a one-man offensive engine for a team that badly needs one, definitely an elite passer, definitely lost a step two years ago and has more trouble beating switches than he used to and definitely highly flammable on defense, although he at least tries now. (More on that here.)

As a small guard entering his age-28 season, the danger is less the money and more the years. He’s agreed to a four-year deal (with a player option) for approximately $212 million, far above his BORD$ valuation. It probably would’ve worked better for the Wizards’ cap management to just tack on new years to that number.

For instance, getting to a total of three years, $110 million would have put two new seasons at $30 million on the Wizards’ books, which would not only accommodate additions and re-signings vis-à-vis the luxury tax but also crack the door open for a cap-room play in summer 2027. Still, even after opting out of his deal, there was little to no chance that Young would change teams.

Tier 3: MLE guys

3. Collin Gillespie, Phoenix: $21,472,942

Gillespie agreed last week to a four-year, $48 million deal. This even larger valuation may sound pretty extreme because Gillespie’s career had little traction until he blew up in his age-26 season, but he was fantastic last year. He’s also a career 40.5 percent 3-point shooter on serious volume, holds his own on defense and can run an offense.

The Suns only have early Bird rights on Gillespie, capping what they could have paid him at an estimated $15.6 million in 2026-27 salary. The average salary on his agreed-upon deal is a few million less than that, and the Suns should manage to keep him, Jordan Goodwin and Mark Williams while staying under the second-apron payroll threshold.

4. Kevin Porter Jr. Milwaukee (PO): $19,960,319

Porter was the Bucks’ second-best player in 2025-26 and might be the best one when camp opens, even while going cold from 3 (just 32.2 percent) in his 38 games.

Porter’s issues at other stops and iffy commitment to defense are likely going to cap his salary south of this BORD$ valuation, as the Bucks may not have much competition for his services at eight-figure prices. He surely will opt out of his $5.4 million deal for 2026-27, however, and as an early Bird rights player, the Bucks can pay an estimated $15.6 million in 2026-27 salary to retain him if need be — just beating the non-taxpayer MLE amount ($15 million) that would let other teams in the door. A deal for a bit less than that, in the neighborhood of three years and $40 million, seems like a reasonable sweet spot.

5. Fred VanVleet, Houston (PO): $17,526,557

VanVleet missed the season with a torn ACL, so BORD$ is triangulating here based on his age and previous track record. He also has a player option for $25 million; he could just opt into it and try his luck as an unrestricted free agent next year.

What might work better for all parties, however, would be if he declines the option and immediately re-signs with Houston on a deal that pays him less money for 2026-27 (so the Rockets can manage the tax aprons) but gives the 32-year-old more security for the years that follow. Maybe something in the neighborhood of three years and $70 million.

6. CJ McCollum, Atlanta: $16,536,607

McCollum was the perfect spark plug for Atlanta’s offense once he came over from Washington; he also, alas, turns 35 in September and doesn’t really fit the timeline of this Hawks roster full of 20-somethings.

Still, McCollum and the Hawks have already agreed to a one-year, $21 million deal, though BORD$ values him just a whisker above the non-taxpayer MLE. A two-year deal would’ve been about the maximum tolerable risk given McCollum’s age. Atlanta is miles from the projected tax line, and McCollum’s expiring contract possibly could be used in a midseason swap for elite talent.

7. Jamal Shead, Toronto (TO): $16,103,212

Shead is an interesting situation. Normally, you might think he’d be a “decline and re-sign” candidate because of his value contract (just $2.3 million), but Toronto’s situation with the tax aprons argues for the opposite approach. The Raptors can barely stay under the projected first apron even with Shead at his current number, much less if he gets a raise, but they will have a lot more money a year from now.

Thus, they were likely to lock in Shead at his current number, which they reportedly did Thursday, and then try to sign an extension based on that. There is also a scenario where the Raptors hold off on an extension to preserve the possibility of 2027 cap room, because Shead’s minimum cap hold would go a long way toward achieving that.

8. Collin Sexton, Chicago: $14,248,237

At this point, we basically know the drill: Sexton isn’t really a point guard and is too small and defensively suspect to start on the wing, but he can fill it up when he gets cooking. Sexton is a career 38.9 percent 3-point shooter who averaged over 30 points per 100 possessions for four different teams across eight seasons. The full non-taxpayer MLE might be slightly aggressive for a bench microwave type, but a two-year deal between $25 million and $30 million would likely return value.

Chicago has Sexton’s Bird rights but seems unlikely to pursue him as the Bulls pivot to a rebuild centered on their heap of cap space; however, Chicago could play a part in sign-and-trade scenarios for teams that don’t have access to the MLE.

9. Anfernee Simons, Chicago: $12,468,211

Similar to Sexton above, Simons is a scoring guard who shoots well (38.1 percent from 3 for his career) and goes on torrid scoring jags, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired. Also similar to Sexton, Chicago has full Bird rights on Simons and seemingly not much interest in bringing him back; that could open sign-and-trade scenarios. And like Sexton, he’s probably looking at a two-year deal in the $25 million range.

Tier 4: Less than MLE, more than minimum

10. Marcus Smart, Lakers (PO): $11,578,784

Smart played his way back into free agency with a solid year for the Lakers, albeit in an extremely low-usage role for a guard. His offense has cratered since leaving Boston, and he might be considered a wing at this point, given that somebody else is likely to be handling the shot-creation work.

Smart still adds a lot of value on the defensive end and is willing enough to let it rip from 3 that opponents feel compelled to guard him despite his iffy percentages. That makes him more valuable than his $5.4 million player option, so he likely opts out and tests the market. The Lakers have no Bird rights on Smart and are likely to be a cap space team regardless, but an alternative would be to retain him via their room exception on a one-year, $9.4 million deal.

11. Jose Alvarado, New York (PO): $10,549,738

The newly minted NBA champ has a player option for just $4.5 million that he seems likely to decline, even if it’s just to sign a longer deal to stay with the Knicks. New York will have full Bird rights on him, so for the Knicks, it’s more a question of where his contract fits in their tax-apron strategy. He’s one of the best backup point guards on the market, so New York will have competition.

12. Brandon Williams, Dallas: $10,288,416

Williams is a hard player to value, as he’s a slashing guard who gets bucket after bucket at the rim but offers little floor spacing (28.0 percent career from 3) and is undersized at the other end. Williams proved himself to be a viable rotation player with Dallas’ other injuries, and the Mavs will have his Bird rights. Kyrie Irving’s return obviously moves Williams to a backup role, but that’s his best usage anyway. I’d be shocked if Williams got a contract as high as this BORD$ value, but he could be a popular name for the $5.5 million biannual exception on a two-year deal.

13. Craig Porter Jr., Cleveland: (TONG): $6,293,009

On paper, Porter is a classic “decline and re-sign” candidate, but in reality, the Cavs’ tax situation makes that virtually impossible. Having Porter occupy a roster spot while making just $2.4 million next year is far more important to making their tax-apron math work, even if it results in his being an unrestricted free agent a year from now. If the Cavs are Porter believers, however, one thing they could do is pick up the guarantee and then sign him to an extension off that number.

14. Bones Hyland, Minnesota: $6,236,405

Hyland regained some career footing by becoming part of Minnesota’s rotation, although his role mostly vanished in the playoffs because of defensive concerns. The Wolves have serious tax issues, but they do have early Bird rights on Hyland; that makes him easier to ink than an outside free agent due to the aprons. Realistically, his price ceiling is likely the $5.5 million biannual exception. Even getting to that number may get tricky for the Wolves, given their seeming need to stay below the tax line and their $112 million commitment to Ayo Dosunmu.

15. Mike Conley Jr., Minnesota, $6,151,040

Entering his age-39 season, Conley showed in the playoffs that he still has something left in his legs. However, his offensive output has dipped sharply over the past two seasons, culminating in last season’s 9.4 PER on just 51.7 percent true shooting.

While I will forever stan for Conley (I was in the Grizzlies’ front office for his final seven seasons in Memphis), this BORD$ estimate likely overshoots his market. He’s probably playing on a minimum next year, whether back with the Wolves or someplace else that needs a steady stabilizer in the backcourt and in the locker room.

16. D’Angelo Russell, Washington (PO): $5,945,486

BORD$ has always liked Russell way more than his NBA employers have. While Russell has a player option for $5.96 million, almost his exact BORD$ valuation, I would be shocked to see him opt out of it because there is such a tepid market for his services. Given the numbers on Washington’s roster, there’s even a scenario where he ends up as a buyout guy after picking up the option and lands someplace else on a minimum deal.

17. Daniss Jenkins, Detroit (TO): $5,256,936

Jenkins contract is set up for a “decline and re-sign“ that will allow the Pistons to ink him to a longer deal as a non-Bird free agent. His team option is for $4 million, but I’d look for Detroit to ink him to a deal around three years and $15 million, which is the most they can do without tapping into exception money.

The one wrinkle here is that the Pistons have cap room scenarios; in that event, Detroit could decline the option and then bring Jenkins back via a chunk of their room exception. Doing things that way would give them $3 million in extra cap room for a potential pursuit of Austin Reaves or some other unrestricted free agent.

18. Dennis Schröder, Cleveland: $4,889,681

I’ve included Schröder here because his contract structure means there’s at least some chance that the Cavaliers waive and stretch him, making him a free agent, to cope with a potentially mammoth tax bill.

Schröder is owed $14.9 million for the coming season, but his 2027-28 season is guaranteed for only $4.35 million. Thus, the Cavs could take that entire $19.25 million guarantee and stretch it over five seasons if they waived him, slashing $11 million from their tax calculation for the coming season and saving millions beyond that in luxury tax.

If set free, Schröder is still a valuable player, with BORD$ suggesting he’s basically worth the $5.4 million room exception on a one-year deal for a team that needs a veteran backup point guard. Note that the Cavs would also receive a set-off on their tax bill from any new contract Schröder signed, removing 50 percent of the amount above the one-year veteran minimum of $2.1 million.

Dennis Schröder and Jose Alvarado are two of the better backup point guards on the market this summer. (Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images)

19. Jaden Ivey, Chicago (R): $4,809,589

The lottery pick’s NBA future is in question after the Bulls waived him after just four games last season. Ivey improved quite a bit as a shooter in his third and fourth seasons and could provide a solid third or fourth guard if he’s healthy and focused, but his journey back to relevance probably starts with a one-year minimum deal.

Tier 5: Good minimums

20. Blake Wesley, Portland

I’ve been a believer in Wesley’s ability to impact the game as an agent of chaos on the defensive end, and he showed that before injuries sidetracked his first season as a Blazer. At some point, however, he will need to make a jump shot. A career 29.4 percent mark from 3 is tough to overcome.

21. Cameron Payne, Philadelphia

Everyone’s favorite sideways-standing southpaw put up decent numbers last season in his 22 games, with a 14.4 PER and positive BPM, but entering his age-32 season, he’s likely signing on as a third point guard.

22. Aaron Holiday, Houston

Holiday is only 6-0, isn’t a true point guard and turns 30 in September, but he’s a career 38.4 percent shooter from 3 who is tough as nails on defense. Those attributes made him a solid end-of-rotation option in Houston the past three years and a good fit as a fifth guard on a minimum deal.

23. Ryan Nembhard, Dallas (TO)

Dallas’ deal with Nembhard last season is another potential decline and re-sign, since it’s only for $2.15 million. The angle for the Mavs would be to sign him to a longer minimum deal (either two or three years with another team option) that carries them to his restricted free agent year in 2028.

24. Jamaree Bouyea, Phoenix (TO)

An undersized guard who depends heavily on pull-ups, Bouyea gave Phoenix solid minutes on his two-way deal last season and earned a roster promotion. The Suns’ roster math and cap situation could lead to them declining his $2.58 million team option, even if Phoenix still brings him back. For instance, signing another one-year minimum would cut $134,539 from the Suns’ tax calculation without costing Bouyea a penny. Every bit counts as they try to dodge repeater penalties, which punish teams that were luxury-tax payers in three of the preceding four seasons.

25. Jevon Carter, Orlando

Carter managed the rare feat of being cut by a bad team to become a rotation player on a good one, entering the Magic’s top nine in the playoffs after being waived by the Bulls. He’s only 6-0 but isn’t a creator. He fits on a roster where he doesn’t need to initiate offense and can thrive as an off-ball shooter who pressures the ball on defense. Obviously, Orlando seems to be one place where his game fits.

26. Pat Spencer, Golden State (R)

You don’t see a lot of 30-year-old restricted free agents, but here we are. After a meandering path to the NBA, Spencer was good enough on his two-way deal last year to earn a promotion, as well as brief meme status for his in-game histrionics. He doesn’t provide a ton of scoring juice but is a good passer with some defensive toughness, plus an elite mustache.

Tier 6: Fringe guys, two-ways

27. Gabe Vincent, Atlanta

Coaches seem fond of playing Vincent despite the paucity of output. He had a 6.5 PER last year on 51.1 percent true shooting and a minus-4.3 BPM but was a mainstay in the Hawks’ playoff rotation. I joke that his role in Atlanta was “just don’t kill us” because he just played off the ball and stayed out of the way, but it’s kept him in the league for seven seasons. I’d bet on a minimum deal as a fifth guard for Year 8.

28. Jordan McLaughlin, San Antonio

McLaughlin somehow hung on to a roster spot all season as the fourth point guard on an elite contender, and even saw some non-garbage playoff run when De’Aaron Fox was injured in the second round.

McLaughlin can manage a team but is seriously undersized and doesn’t have amazing burst to make up for it. If he sticks around this year, it will be as a 15th man, and perhaps only in 10-day increments.

Jordan McLaughlin saw a little playing time in the playoffs for San Antonio. (Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)

29. Jalen Pickett, Denver (TO)

Pickett’s minutes last year were more of a tell on the rest of the Nuggets’ bench than any emergence on his own. He’s at his best when he can play beast ball against smaller guards, which doesn’t often translate at the NBA level. Denver has a $2.4 million team option on him, which is just a hair less than the projected veteran’s minimum, and the Nuggets’ tax calculations are so tight that it could influence them to pick up the option.

30. Jahmir Young, Miami (TONG)

Young has been one of the best players in the G League but only played 88 NBA minutes over the past two seasons. Because he is still two-way eligible, it seems like the endgame for his deal would be for Miami to decline his team option and then sign him to another two-way.

31. Kam Jones, Indiana (PG)

It’s perhaps an ominous sign for Jones’ future in Indy that the Pacers, while otherwise tanking and playing all the young guys, managed to avoid triggering Jones’ guarantee for this season by keeping him just short of the necessary games-played threshold.

That seems set up for Indiana to waive him, eat his $1.075 million partial guarantee and use the roster spot for more veteran help as the Pacers return to the ranks of the living. If that’s the case, Jones becomes an attractive two-way candidate. Note that he would be ineligible to sign such a deal with Indiana.

32. Chucky Hepburn, Toronto (R-2w)

I’m flagging Hepburn even though he only played two games for the Raptors last season. He was one of my favorite sleepers in the 2025 draft and had a solid G League season for the 905s. I’m assuming Toronto brings him back on a two-way deal, with the chance to play his way to an in-season promotion.

33. Monte Morris, last with Indiana

Morris turns 31 this weekend and only played six NBA games with the Pacers last season, so he’s definitely on the fringe now. But his two previous seasons in Phoenix and Minnesota were reasonably solid for a bench guard.

34. Keaton Wallace, Atlanta (R)

Wallace is 27 but is still two-way eligible, and that could be his place after playing on a roster deal with the Hawks last season. Wallace’s defense at either guard spot is his calling card, with a lefty 3-point stroke that is adequate but little juice as either a creator or playmaker. He’s technically a restricted free agent if the Hawks make him a qualifying offer, which seems highly unlikely.

35. JD Davison, Houston (TONG)

Davidson’s contract seems set up for Houston to use in a trade or, otherwise, likely waive him. Because he is no longer two-way eligible, he’ll have to snag a roster spot somewhere, and that may require a stint in the G League first.

36. Terry Rozier, last with Miami

Rozier is radioactive as he faces charges as part of a federal investigation into alleged NBA gambling and insider information trading. His trial isn’t scheduled to begin until February 2027. He also wasn’t good even before this situation blew up, so the 33-year-old was unlikely to have much of a market even in the best of circumstances.