Кауай Леонард Торонто Рэпторст эргэн ирэх боломжтой

On paper, it makes no sense. Why would one of the youngest teams to make the playoffs last year move future assets to acquire an injury-prone, 35-year-old star — even if that player helped produce the greatest moment in franchise history? More than that, why would the team do that and then offer the player an expensive multi-year extension?

As ever, the devil is in the details. Those details are what make the idea of the Toronto Raptors reacquiring Kawhi Leonard rational.

The Los Angeles Clippers and Raptors have been engaged on the Leonard front for days now, with Toronto seen as the frontrunner, per league sources who were granted anonymity so they could speak freely on the talks. While Dallas is known to have pursued Leonard, as The Athletic first reported, the Raptors are on Leonard’s list of teams that he’s willing to sign an extension with (along with the San Antonio Spurs) and have a significant edge as a result. Last week, The Athletic reported that the interest is mutual. The Raptors are in a position to be interested in a lot of players.

To understand why the Raptors are interested, we first must explore why the Clippers might move Leonard. With just one year and $50.3 million left on his contract, Leonard is obviously thinking about his next deal, as that is how the league works. The Clippers got much younger in February when they traded James Harden for Darius Garland.

It would be an understatement to say the Clippers and Leonard have gone through a lot of drama since he signed with the franchise in July 2019, leaving Toronto. Because of various injuries and related maintenance, Leonard has played in just 364 of the Clippers’ 604 regular-season and playoff games since he joined the team. He missed the entire 2021-22 season and failed to make it through the playoffs healthy in three of his five times getting that far with Los Angeles.

There is also the Aspiration scandal. Clippers executive Lawrence Frank said earlier in the offseason that his goal was to win with Leonard. But after moving Harden to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Ivica Zubac to the Indiana Pacers in a trade that got them the fifth pick in this month’s draft, used on Keaton Wagler, it is reasonable for the Clippers to move in a younger direction.

Then why should the Raptors, whose two most important players for the long-term will be 25 (Scottie Barnes) and 21 (Collin Murray-Boyles) when the season starts, be interested if the Clippers are waffling? Well, the Raptors’ cap picture isn’t exactly rosy. Brandon Ingram (two years, $81.9 million, including a player option for 2027-28), Immanuel Quickley (three years, $97.5 million and Jakob Poeltl (four years, $103.6 million, with just a $5 million guarantee for 2029-30) are on contracts ranging from neutral value to cap-sheet albatrosses. They have picks and prospects to dangle in a trade, but not team-friendly contracts for veterans. Those contracts are either going to make it impossible to enter bidding wars for more in-demand players or require them to surrender more draft capital than their competitors to make competitive offers.

Let’s say the Clippers are determined not to extend Leonard. They have two options: 1) Keep him for 2026-27, allow his contract to expire and see if they want to attempt to retain him in the summer in unrestricted free agency; or 2) trade him now, and get whatever they can in return now to help build around Garland and Wagler.

This is where the Raptors come in. A team with whom Leonard has signalled a willingness to sign an extension would have more incentive to trade future pieces for him than a team without that assurance. At the same time, Leonard limiting his list of teams would theoretically cool the market and lower the offers.

Ironically, the Raptors acquired Leonard from San Antonio in 2018 despite not having the same assurance. There is always the risk that a team without an extension in place for Leonard could make a better offer than the Raptors, seeing as the same situation played out eight years ago in Toronto’s favour. Then again, Leonard is nearing the end of his career now, as opposed to in the middle of what seemed like his prime.

If the competition is relatively modest for Leonard, the Raptors could offer a package like Ingram, Gradey Dick, a 2027 first-round pick and perhaps another draft asset for Leonard. Ingram is six years younger than Leonard, but it is not as if he is a much better bet to stay healthy. While Leonard has played 60.2 percent of games over the last seven years, Ingram has played in 69.5 percent of his. Both are coming off healthy seasons, with Ingram playing in 82 of 89 possible games and Leonard playing in 65 of 82.

However, there is no comparison between the two when they are healthy. Leonard averaged 27.9 points per game on 50.5/38.7/89.2 percent shooting (from the field, 3-point arc and free-throw line, respectively) last year, posting 9.2 win shares and a 27.9 player efficiency rating. Ingram averaged 21.5 points on 47.7/38.2/82 shooting, posting a 4.6 win shares and a 16.2 PER. The Clippers were 13.8 points per 100 possessions better with Leonard on the floor than off it in the regular season, while the Raptors were 4.9 points per 100 possessions better with Ingram off the court. Even diminished from his peak, Leonard is a better defender than Ingram and a much more credentialed playoff performer.

If the Raptors can get Leonard at a reasonable acquisition cost and keep the extension to two years after this one, it is worth trading in a smidgeon of availability for far more per-minute production. It would give the Raptors a higher ceiling for the rest of Barnes’ contract, which runs through 2029-30, without sacrificing so much of the future that they a) would be without building blocks if the second Leonard experience in Toronto is not as fruitful as the first; b) couldn’t make other moves on top of this one.

Ideally, any core-altering move would be more in line with Barnes’ timeline. However, the Raptors’ books do not make for an ideal world. This is silly season, so many of the reports might be just a leverage play on Leonard’s part to get an extension offer he likes from the Clippers. More suitors might emerge. It is also possible that if the Raptors don’t push in enough chips, the Clippers decide they’d rather just wipe Leonard’s contract off the books and let him leave in free agency than agree to take on more future money.

Still, from the Raptors’ perspective, there is something logical about the idea. At the very least, it’s something fun to think about, and Leonard would never deprive Raptors fans of fun, would he?