NBA-ийн 2026 оны зуны солилцоо наймааны дараах нөхцөл байдал болон багуудын ирээдүйн асуудал

Hope! That’s what the offseason is supposed to bring NBA fans when their team drafts a future star or signs a free agent who fills a clear need. And yet, sometimes we end up seeing a lot more concern than anything. Sometimes it’s the moves that didn’t happen that leave a franchise wondering, “Where do we go from here?”

The 2026 summer saw so much change across the league. Giannis Antetokounmpo was traded to Miami. LaMelo Ball was traded to Minnesota. Jaylen Brown was traded to Philadelphia. Maybe Kawhi Leonard will be traded to Toronto? And then, of course, LeBron James signed with the Philadelphia 76ers in what could be the final chapter of his now 24-season (and counting) career.

Let’s review 10 scenarios in the NBA and grade them on our offseason concern-o-meter. We did this last year, and it was a big hit. (I didn’t read the comments.)

Steph Curry’s end with Warriors

Concern-o-meter: 9/10

The Golden State Warriors never really got into the Antetokounmpo mix, even though they were rumored to be interested for years. Kevin Durant said no thanks to a reunion with them at the trade deadline a couple of seasons ago. Jimmy Butler did go there, but he tore his ACL. And now James has declined teaming up with Curry and company. So … what does the end of Curry’s career look like?

I don’t presume to know if he might want to leave and go somewhere else, even though the internet has wondered if he’d eventually play a season or more in Charlotte, where he grew up. However, the Warriors should try to bring in more to help Curry go for a fifth championship ring.

Is the best option hoping that Curry and Butler both take massive pay cuts in the summer of 2027 and give the Warriors the flexibility to bring in a big-time, disgruntled star via trade? Curry and Butler will make roughly $120 million this coming season. Butler will come back at some point in the second half of the season, but the 36-year-old coming off an ACL injury can’t be expected to perform at his previous level. Curry will turn 39 in March. As we saw last season, a knee (or any other) injury can derail his time on the court dramatically.

The Warriors, as constructed, aren’t good enough to compete with the elite of the Western Conference. They have to take another big swing at bringing in star help to give Curry, Draymond Green and Steve Kerr another shot at a title. This team is currently Play-In Tournament caliber. And I’m not sure how optimistic you can be, even when Butler comes back. They have a few first-round picks they can move. They should be willing to part with Brandin Podziemski or some of these younger players on the roster to facilitate a deal. They should do something.

The post-LeBron Lakers

Concern-o-meter: 4/10

I’ve been higher on the Lakers’ offseason than most, but I still have concerns. Giving Austin Reaves more than $40 million per season affects how the team is built around Luka Dončić. Committing that much of the salary cap to two non-defenders will present challenges. The Lakers are hoping the offense greatly outweighs the other end of the floor.

The key for the Lakers’ offseason was how they addressed the middle. While Dončić and LeBron found ways to make things look less dire on the court at times, having Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes as the big men of record was detrimental to playing real basketball that can threaten in the playoffs. Walker Kessler isn’t a household name yet, but he is an impactful defensive presence. He’s a strong rebounder. He’s a useful scorer around the rim. You don’t have to worry about whether or not he’s going to be focused or competent on any given night. The floor for expectations has risen dramatically.

As for the rest of the signings, there’s a lot of potential value in Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, Sandro Mamukelashvili and Kevon Looney joining the roster. Will they make up for LeBron leaving? No. But the franchise needed to move forward and truly begin an era centered on Dončić. The Lakers aren’t any closer to winning the West than they were last year, but they can start building toward that. They should be fine … for now.

Heat building around Giannis, Adebayo

Concern-o-meter: 7/10

I’m not sure anybody is better at figuring out cap intricacies than Andy Elisburg, one of the Heat’s top executives. If anybody can bring in cap-friendly and flexible deals around Bam Adebayo and Giannis, it’s Miami’s front office. But it won’t be easy. The Heat appear boxed in for this season. Then they could see plenty of relief and flexibility toward adding a significant guard next summer.

The clock is ticking. Miami has roughly $115 million per year locked up in Adebayo and Giannis, who is 32, and that’s a hard 32 when it comes to his NBA mileage. He’s had some knee trouble at times in the last few years. Miami doesn’t really have draft capital or young prospects to move anymore. Are the Heat hoping to bring in someone like Zach LaVine or CJ McCollum or Dejounte Murray in free agency? Is that enough?

Celtics’ retool

Concern-o-meter: 4/10

For two straight summers, the Celtics have dismantled a championship-level roster and hoped Joe Mazzulla can devise a plan to make up for it with spare parts. At times last season, it looked like the Celtics were going to figure it out. They were tremendous during the regular season, only to choke away a 3-1 lead to Philadelphia in the first round, with Jayson Tatum missing Game 7. After a failed run at Giannis, the Celtics decided to move Jaylen Brown before a trade-rumor-fueled mercurial personality and a massive extension were hitting the team. It looks like the Celtics will have another “gap year” as they retool everything around a healthy Tatum.

Let’s assume Paul George, acquired in the Brown deal, picks up his 2027-28 player option for $56 million. In the summer of 2028, the Celtics will have a ton of flexibility with him off the books, Derrick White having a player option and nobody else on the roster (as of now) making more than $17 million (although Payton Pritchard will be extension eligible in October). Tatum will be 30 that summer, and GM Brad Stevens likely won’t be scared of the aprons by then. Boston should have at least one good run in the Tatum prime era. Maybe that starts with some moves before the 2027 trade deadline?

Nikola Jokić winning another title

Concern-o-meter: 7/10

Some of this is about the state of the Denver Nuggets, and some of this is about the teams in front of Denver in the West. First, let’s deal with the conference landscape.

Denver’s kryptonite since winning the title in 2023 has been the Minnesota Timberwolves. On top of that, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have become deep, elite teams that should be able to rule the West for at least the next few years. While Denver has looked very good in the regular season at times, injuries and subpar play have knocked it out of the playoffs for three straight years.

As for the Nuggets, Jokić is still arguably the best player in the world, but what’s surrounding him? Aaron Gordon has $103 million left on his deal over the next three years (including a player option), but has suffered a hamstring injury in the last two postseasons. Jamal Murray has more than $161 million owed to him over the next three years. He’s shooting 40.9 percent from the field and 32.2 percent from deep in 32 playoff games since winning the title. Christian Braun is starting a five-year, $125 million extension now, and we don’t know if that’ll cost them restricted free agent Peyton Watson at some point. This is a traditionally frugal ownership, and the Nuggets are currently the only team with a payroll exceeding the second apron.

Jokić is delaying his extension and will eventually be eligible to re-sign for a projected $350 million-plus over five years. People don’t seem to fear him leaving, but putting proper supporting players around him who can stay healthy is a concern. Denver got its title in 2023, but there’s no clear pathway to getting another one any time soon … if at all.

OKC retaining its young core

Concern-o-meter: 9/10

Speaking of OKC, the Thunder are facing their own financial crunch.

GM Sam Presti is unquestionably the best at simultaneously building a roster and maximizing the accumulation of assets. We always note how many future first-round picks they have and how much they can pivot even by losing key players. Even this summer, they’ve had to say goodbye to Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe in trades. That was to get under the second apron. The issue is not going anywhere.

Just with the contracts of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, OKC has roughly $143 million committed this coming season, $149.5 million in 2027-28, $161 million in 2028-29, $172.5 million in 2029-30 and $184 million in 2030-31. The good news is they have three incredible players locked up for five years (SGA has a player option in that last season). The bad news is this isn’t a three-on-three league.

Cason Wallace is extension eligible and has made comments about wanting to get paid. Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein are on team-friendly deals for the next couple of seasons but might become second-apron casualties. Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams and Jared McCain are extension eligible in a year. The second apron is rearing its ugly head with OKC in real time and will continue to do so as long as the Thunder keep that big three together. They might have to make a big-time decision soon. If Holmgren continues to struggle against Victor Wembanyama when it matters most, then maybe that decision becomes easier.

Clippers, Raptors and Aspiration

Concern-o-meter: 6/10

I originally had this at an 8/10 because the Kawhi Leonard trade back to Toronto is on hold during the Aspiration investigation. That seems to at least raise a red flag at half-mast if you’re hopeful for a Kawhi reunion in Toronto. However, there was recent news about the Raptors and Clippers playing a preseason game in Vancouver in October, which now makes me feel less stressed about everything going through. It can’t be a coincidence these teams are involved in the NBA Canada Games, right? It has to be a sign that this trade will go through, right?

Or maybe it’s not! This whole thing has felt so disjointed over the last 11 months. Many of us keep assuming this is a lot closer to being done and a lot more streamlined than it appears to be. The league might drop the hammer on Kawhi and the Clippers. The NBA might not even know what it’s going to do. The investigation and arbitration process might not even be done before next season. Is the deal going to still be on if it gets decided in October and the trade is fine to execute? What if it goes to November? What if it doesn’t get figured out until 2033?

Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes will be teammates in Toronto … we think. (Dan Hamilton / USA Today Sports)

Keeping Anthony Edwards in town

Concern-o-meter: 3/10

As soon as one disgruntled superstar gets traded, we start looking for the next one to get moved. Or if that superstar is currently happy with where they are, then we start wondering when and how they might become disgruntled.

As soon as Antetokounmpo was moved to Miami and Brown was subsequently sent to Philadelphia, that search was on, with a lot of eyes going toward Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Why? Uh … I’m not totally sure. Maybe there’s a feeling that they’ve hit their ceiling in the West and he’s going to want to head to greener pastures to compete for a title?

There don’t seem to be any signs that Edwards would actually look to leave Minnesota. The Wolves just traded for LaMelo Ball to get Edwards some backcourt help, and he appears to be really excited about that. However, there are plenty of questions about how long lead executive Tim Connelly, who is in the final year of his deal, will remain with the organization. If he leaves, could this thing crumble into a situation that Edwards wants to leave, too? The concern should be pretty low right now, but it’s not zero.

Trail Blazers staying in Portland

Concern-o-meter: 10/10

This doesn’t mean the Portland Trail Blazers will be ripped out of Rip City, but the concern is on the highest of alerts right now.

New owner Tom Dundon and the franchise are playing hardball with the city and state to get arena updates and renovations without putting in a single Dundon dollar. Commissioner Adam Silver is disappointed in where things stand in the negotiations, which can be interpreted as code for “we really want Dundon to win this battle because we have to root for the NBA owners in these situations.” But many people around the NBA and the Blazers’ situation do not think the Blazers (Dundon specifically) are acting in good faith.

Dundon has made comments about the Portland market and the taxes, and his public comments have felt like he’d be doing charity by keeping the Blazers there. And while I think the league couldn’t possibly be ignorant enough to allow the Blazers to leave and completely abandon the Pacific Northwest (for now), we’ve seen great franchises in great basketball cities move over arena issues in the past.

Is Dundon tanking these negotiations with the city? Maybe. Is it all just about winning within the construct of capitalism in a billion-dollar industry like the NBA? Maybe. If Dundon wins — either by moving the team or getting everything he demands in Oregon — he probably doesn’t care at all about poisoning the well. We’re definitely at a point where you can’t just assume the Blazers will stay and the league will figure it out.

LeBron finishing career in Philly

Concern-o-meter: 7/10

This is supposed to be it, right? Following the announcement that he’s joining the Philadelphia 76ers, James said on social media that this is his final decision. And yet … I’m not so sure that will end up being true.

He signed a two-year, $8 million contract with the Sixers, but the second year is a player option. That gives him some flexibility. It allows him to not opt in for the 2027-28 season, become a free agent and sign for more money to remain with the Sixers. It also allows him to leave if this isn’t the one he’s hoping for.

What if Joel Embiid is too injured to factor in positively? What if Brown decides he needs to showcase his abilities as a top player in this league and it detracts from the team concept? What if LeBron just hates Philly or doesn’t like Nick Nurse’s system or decides he misses his family and wants to be closer? What if he regrets not going somewhere else? Having the player option is smart, and it feels like we’re going to get another decision, almost by default (or by design) in June/July 2027. Will that one take three and a half weeks to get decided? Unlikely.

I just don’t know how you can be certain that LeBron will finish in Philly. People change their minds all the time. We’re still waiting for LeBron to do that dunk contest he promised.