Вашингтон Уизэрдс драфтын нэгдүгээр сонголтоор Эй Жей Дибанцаг сонгох нь зүйтэй

The Washington Wizards should take AJ Dybantsa with the first pick Tuesday night in the NBA draft. And I think they will.

It’s close, inside Washington’s front office, between Dybantsa and Kansas guard Darryn Peterson — closer than I thought six weeks ago, when the Wizards won the lottery. The Wizards aren’t trading the pick, no matter the fever dreams of the uninformed and gullible on social media. They would be vastly improved going forward with either Dybantsa or Peterson. Both project as superstars.

But the Wizards have monitored the 6-foot-8 Dybantsa’s progression for the last couple of years, long before they knew they’d have a chance to draft and build around him. His name, along with Cooper Flagg’s, was the one whispered most as the ultimate prize for Washington tanking its heart out over the last three years.

To be clear: taking Dybantsa is not a critique of Peterson, the outstanding guard who played at Kansas and saw his season slowed by a severe body cramping incident suffered during pre-season workouts. To exult over Dybantsa is not to take down Peterson.

But the 19-year-old Dybantsa just has too much potential to become the kind of star the Wizards haven’t had around here since Chris Webber’s brief tenure in D.C. He’s a dynamic young big man with the talent and charisma to make the city remember that it’s a basketball town first, before everything else. And after Dybantsa led the nation in scoring at BYU (25.5 points per game) and shot 51 percent from the floor, becoming just the fifth college basketball player in the last 40 years to average at least 25 a game while shooting at least 50 percent, it’s hard to construct a scenario where Washington passes on his potential.

Dybantsa is a physical wing. The Wizards have brought in some very promising small forwards over the last three years in Kyshawn George, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley. All can become good to very good players. None of them are physical. Consider that in 2023, when Washington made a draft-night trade to get Coulibaly’s draft rights, Coulibaly was listed around 195 pounds. Three years later, he’s still listed at 195 pounds.

He’s stronger now, to be sure. But Dybantsa is 217 pounds, today. With his frame, he’s likely to be able to add another 10-12 pounds of muscle in the coming years without affecting his quickness or flexibility. At his current size, he led the nation in free-throw attempts, with 296 this past season.

Dybantsa’s ability to put pressure on the rim will open up possibilities across the board — for George, for Alex Sarr, for Anthony Davis, for Tre Johnson. He will have to continue to improve as a facilitator, but he showed signs of that at BYU. One of Dybantsa’s best games distributing the ball came just a few days after the Cougars lost senior forward Richie Saunders, the heart of the team, to a season-ending knee injury. Against Iowa State, Dybantsa played all 40 minutes and scored 29 points — but also had nine assists, along with 10 rebounds, in BYU’s 79-69 victory.

Dybantsa shot 69 percent at the rim last season. He shot almost 50 percent on long mid-range shots. He averaged better than eight free-throw attempts per game. All of that will help Washington’s still-porous defense get back and get set on more possessions going forward. His defense is not where it needs to be, but he won’t be played off the floor because of size limitations. Most scouts and coaches I spoke with for the NBA Draft Confidential believed Dybantsa will get better defensively with pro coaching and emphasis on communication and awareness of what’s required from him.

And the pressure that will naturally come with being the No. 1 pick will be lessened, at least somewhat, by having Trae Young and Davis on the floor with him. The Wizards will not run their offense through their rookie. Young’s job is to make everyone else’s job easier, to ensure the Wizards convert at a high rate in transition. Pick Dybantsa on the wing, or Tre Johnson spotting up for 3, or Alex Sarr rim-running. All will be good choices. The Wizards will likely commit to Young long-term soon, betting on his skills of orchestration.

To be sure, he Wizards have done extensive pre-draft diligence on Peterson, too, and they have accepted Peterson’s explanation of why he suffered severe cramping while training before the start of Kansas’ season — full-body cramps that necessitated a trip to a local hospital, and which subsequently pushed Peterson to take himself out of games, or not play in them at all, if he felt similar symptoms. This isn’t about that.

Peterson’s three-level scoring ability is clear. The differentiator at the NBA level, though, is whether teams think he can also play lead guard regularly. Peterson insists he can, and for good reason; the difference between Peterson playing the point, instead of off guard, would be significant for the Wizards, who value positional size and versatility more than just about every other physical trait. Peterson measured 6-4 1/2 at the draft combine. That’s great size for a point guard. It’s kind of average at the two.

There is this, too: Dybantsa has a public-facing persona. Peterson, in his own words, is an introvert. There is nothing wrong with leading by example, and letting your actions speak for you. A fellow named Tim Duncan did it quite effectively in San Antonio. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t have a look-at-me persona, either. (Please direct your flopping complaints, snide and otherwise, to A. Silver, c/0 the NBA, New York, N.Y.)

But the Wizards don’t just need better players to re-ignite a fanbase that has been waiting a long time to see competitive basketball. They need some star power. They need a player who excites both the hardcore hoop heads in town — the folks who go to Barry Farms in the summer, and watch the WCAC and DCIAA teams go at each other’s necks starting around Thanksgiving, and bounce from Maryland to Georgetown to George Mason to GW to Howard to American to watch D1 hoops of all varieties in the winter — and the casual fan, who just wants to have a fun night at Capital One Arena.

Along those lines: Ted Leonsis owns the Wizards. Most of the time, owners should be quiet and let their front offices and coaches run their teams. But when it comes to No. 1, the owner is entitled to have a say. I do not think Leonsis is telling Michael Winger and Will Dawkins who to draft. I do think he is well within his rights, in this case, to ask, “If it’s that close between the two, and we can’t go wrong either way, why wouldn’t we take the guy who’ll sell a few more tickets and merch, or up our local TV ratings a point or two?”

Dybantsa is clearly up for a leading-man role. He’ll be fine going to the Wizards. He’d have been fine if the Utah Jazz had traded up to get the first pick, too. What matters most to him is going No. 1. He’s not afraid of the bright lights that come with being the top guy. It’s a quality that … well, put it this way: Every superstar player isn’t seeking the smoke. But no superstar player ducks the smoke. The NBA is full of killers, players who want to not just win, but dominate. You only beat a killer with another killer, a shark with a bigger shark.

The Wizards have been chum in the NBA water long enough. Take Dybantsa and start biting back.