АНУ болон Бельгийн шигшээ багууд шөвгийн 16-д учраа таарлаа

Monday night’s matchup in Seattle has the potential to be one of the biggest in U.S. men’s national team history.

The U.S. was already faced with a major opportunity, entering the World Cup round of 16 vs. Belgium. It then received a major boost after FIFA suspended Folarin Balogun’s one-match red card ban, making the striker and leading U.S. scorer in the tournament available for selection.

Balogun was sent off during the round of 32 against Bosnia and Herzegovina, and although FIFA had initially indicated the automatic suspension could not be appealed, the governing body has since suspended the ban, clearing him to face Belgium.

The Belgian federation released a statement saying it was “astonished” by the decision. Head coach Rudi Garcia said: “We’re not defending the national team or federation, we are defending football,” at his pre-match press conference.

Regardless of one’s feelings on the topic, the decision gives the game another dimension of intrigue — not that a game at this stage featuring the last cohost standing needed any more juice.

The two teams are battling for a place in the quarterfinals in what is a rematch from the same round in 2014, when U.S. goalkeeper Tim Howard set a new World Cup record for saves in a single-match (16), but the U.S. fell in extra time, 2-1.

None of the current USMNT squad remains from that day 12 years ago, though there are a few holdovers for Belgium. The teams are now looking to write their own history, and for one, a quarterfinal berth awaits. Here’s a closer look at the biggest talking points:

What you need to know about the matchup

Round of 16: United States (FIFA ranking 17) vs Belgium (FIFA ranking 9)

Venue: Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field), Seattle, Wash.

Date: Monday, July 6

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT

U.S. pathway: Winners of World Cup Group D: Two wins vs Paraguay and Australia, one loss to Turkey. Round of 32: 2-0 win vs Bosnia.

Belgium pathway: Winners of World Cup Group G: One win vs New Zealand, two ties against Egypt and Iran. Round of 32: 3-2 win vs Senegal, after extra time.

Staff predictions

Tom Bogert: U.S. 2, Belgium 1, after extra time — Since the two countries played each other in March, the U.S. has drastically improved and Belgium has gone in the other direction. The boost of Balogun and the boost of a home crowd will be enough to see the USMNT through to the quarterfinals.

Henry Bushnell — U.S. 2, Belgium 1 — Externally, the mood has been irreversibly altered by the Balogun controversy. Internally, I don’t think it will be. The team’s light-yet-determined energy, and the support of the crowd in Seattle and all around the country, will propel the U.S. to a win.

Paul Tenorio: U.S. 1, Belgium 2 — The Balogun decision will unify a Belgium team that has rarely looked on the same page. Now they will feel like they are fighting against FIFA and for the good of the sport.

Charlie Davies: This game is perfect for… Folarin Balogun

His surprise availability gives the U.S. its biggest attacking weapon back.

Through this tournament, he has given the USMNT exactly what it needs from a center forward: movement, timing, threat and end product.

Against Paraguay in the opening match, he had 32 touches — a team-high 10 touches in the opposition box and a game-high five shots, three of them on target.

That is the profile of a striker who is constantly arriving in dangerous areas and forcing defenders to make decisions.

His starting positions ask questions of the defenders, while his runs draw attention. When your starting striker is willing to do the hard work, it sets the tone for everyone behind him.

The Australia game was tougher. Balogun had 33 touches, but no shots on goal. Still, his presence mattered, and his actions forced the own goal that opened the scoring. Against Bosnia, he needed only 15 touches to make an impact, scoring before his red card ended his night in the 65th minute.

That is Balogun’s value: he does not need 60 or 70 touches to influence a match. He needs the right movements, the right service and one moment of separation.

Against Belgium, his threat will be crucial. The U.S. will need someone who can occupy center backs, attack the channels and punish any hesitation.

In knockout football, you spend so much time preparing for the margins: set pieces, transition moments, defensive details, how to manage momentum when the game gets stretched. Having your starting striker involved changes those preparations in a real way. It gives the staff more flexibility, more attacking balance and a player who already understands what the team is trying to do.

Balogun has not just been a goal threat in this tournament. He has been a reference point for the attack. His willingness to press, make selfless runs and occupy center backs defines the team’s shape without the ball, and creates room for players underneath him.

For Belgium, the timing of FIFA’s decision has to be incredibly frustrating.

All week, their staff would have been preparing for a U.S. side without Balogun. That changes how you study the opponent, how you set your defensive line, how aggressive you want your center backs to be and how much space you are willing to leave in behind. Now, the picture changes.

Balogun being available forces Belgium to adjust quickly. There is now a constant threat of him stretching the field, attacking the channels and creating space for Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman.

Do Belgium now drop deeper to protect the space behind? Do they keep the line high and trust center backs to deal with his speed and movement? Do they commit an extra midfielder to protect central spaces?

Whatever they choose, Balogun’s return gives Belgium something to worry about. And in a knockout game, the last thing a back line wants, the day before kickoff, is a new problem as dangerous as Balogun.

Malik Tillman’s goal against Bosnia sealed a place for the U.S in the round of 16 (David Gonzales / Imagn Images)

Odds

The U.S. has been the clear favorite in every match so far at the World Cup, but this match is tighter. The opening odds at the sportsbooks gave matching -110 odds for each team to advance, a true coin flip. DraftKings and BetMGM have since shifted the odds to give the Americans the slightest of edges.

Even with the news that Balogun can play despite getting a red card last match, the odds didn’t move much. DraftKings moved the odds in the U.S.’s favor a touch, but FanDuel and BetMGM mostly held steady. In fact, FanDuel had Belgium as a tiny favorite to advance (-112 vs. -108 for the U.S.) on Sunday afternoon.

With a match this tight, it wouldn’t be a major shock to see it go to extra time. The odds of a draw after 90 minutes between +225 and +240 at the major sportsbooks, which implies a roughly 30 percent chance.

Some fireworks are also expected. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are both solidly favored. Two of the Americans’ group games saw both teams score while that has happened in three of Belgium’s four matches so far.

In general, the odds are saying this match should be very dramatic.

If U.S. beats Belgium it will be because…

The Americans win the midfield battle. The U.S. trio of Tyler Adams, McKennie and Tillman has dominated matches up to now. For all of the positive attacking moments and stout defensive structure, those three drive games for the U.S.

They will need to outplay their Belgian counterparts, including Kevin de Bruyne, to win this game. And they very much can.

While Belgium has excellent technical quality in the midfield, the U.S. will have the edge in athleticism. Belgium will try to play out of danger and the biggest key for the U.S. is winning the ball back high up the field, or at least disrupting Belgium’s possession sequences.

This is also a legacy-defining game for star attackers Pulisic and Balogun. They can become the heroes.

If U.S. draws it will be because…

Belgium are a very good team. Winger Jeremy Doku hasn’t had a strong World Cup, but is one of the best attackers in the world. De Bruyne may not be in his prime, but remains world class as well. It is as simple as appreciating simple facts.

Even if the U.S. executes its counterpress flawlessly, Belgium has the ability to play out of it, unlike the previous opponents. If Belgium’s special attacking players get space that comes from playing through pressure, the U.S. will be in trouble.

In defense, goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is still one of the world’s best and a legend of the game. The Real Madrid star is an extremely decorated player who can tilt a game on his own. He has done so in previous World Cup games as well as Champions League finals.

Facing Courtois in a penalty shootout is also not a prospect the U.S. will want.

If U.S. loses it will be because…

Belgium’s scare against Senegal might have woken them up.

Belgium had had a slow start to the tournament and was down 2-0 in the 85th minute of that round-of-32 game. The team somewhat miraculously scored twice late on to force extra time before sealing a stunning comeback with a penalty deep into stoppage time at the end of the additional 30 minutes.

While the team hasn’t looked sharp at this tournament, with draws against Iran and Egypt, the talent is there.

If Belgium plays at their best, they are one of the world’s best. That gear has been elusive so far.

Key injuries

Mark McKenzie remains a doubt due to his foot irritation, while Cristian Roldan’s muscle strain is an issue. There are no new reported issues for any key players.

Predicted lineups

United States (4-2-3-1): Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, A Robinson; Adams, Tillman; Dest, McKennie, Pulisic; Balogun.

Belgium (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Castagne, Mechele, Theate, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Vanaken; Trossard, De Bruyne, Doku; Lukaku

Match referee verdict, from Graham Scott

Adham Makhadmeh is already familiar with Belgium. It will be his first encounter with the U.S., but he reffed the Belgians’ 5-1 rout of New Zealand in the group stages, with his only yellow cards being for two clear-cut fouls by the Kiwis.

He has been having a good tournament, issuing two cautions in each match – which is below the average – and all for offenses that undeniably deserved sanction. From what I have seen, he is happy to blend into the background and keep the lowest possible profile.

The most contentious decision he faced was in England’s match against DR Congo in the round of 32, when he waved away a penalty appeal by the English captain Harry Kane late in the first half, when the striker dragged his foot to make sure the contact occurred and then threw himself forward theatrically.

Makhadmeh drew criticism for gesturing that Kane had dived, because he should have given a free kick to DR Congo and reached for his yellow card if this was his view. As it was, he let off Kane and came to the most sensible conclusion, which was to play on.

His appointment to such a prestigious match in the round of 16 can be taken as proof that his decision was supported by FIFA head of referees Pierluigi Collina.

In the regular season, Makhadmeh officiates in the Al-Manaseer Jordanian Pro League, which consists of 10 teams that play each other three times a season.

Football in Jordan has been on the rise, with the national team qualifying for the World Cup finals for the first time in 2026. They lost all their group matches but at least managed to score in each.

Makhadmeh also referees matches in the Asian Champions League and has appeared as a guest on top fixtures in China and Indonesia.

Schedule and TV information

USMNT vs. Belgium in Seattle: July 6, 8 p.m. ET on Fox (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)

Next U.S. match (if advanced)

Quarterfinal vs. Portugal or Spain in Los Angeles: July 10 on Fox (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)

Essential reading

A handful of must-reads from The Athleticstaff.

Balogun’s unexpected return a massive boost to the U.S.

Whatever you think about how the striker got cleared to play, his presence makes all the difference for the USMNT.

How the world, including President Trump, reacted to Balogun’s ban reprieve

After Balogun’s ban was overturned, it became the talk of world football.

Can USMNT World Cup run ‘change American soccer forever’ as special Seattle return looms?

A record 33.5 million people tuned in to the knockout win over Bosnia, and this summer’s World Cup has been billed as “rocket fuel” for the sport in America.

How Mauricio Pochettino, a ‘200%’ Argentine, embraced America

Pochettino grew up on farmland in Argentina but recently he’s been joining choruses of “Country Roads” and making the ceremonial first pitch at a Major League Baseball game. The nation has begun to embrace him as one of its own.

Why March friendly has no bearing on World Cup rematch

Belgium handily beat the U.S. a few months ago, but there’s little reason to believe things will be the same this time.

USMNT erects training ground barriers to guard against World Cup spying

The national team has taken extra measures to keep preparations under wraps, erecting barriers around the training base ahead of this meeting with Belgium.