НБА-гийн зуны шилжилт хөдөлгөөн ба хүчний хуваарилалт

Yes, things have changed as a result of NBA free agency, the draft and the series of trades that always accompany those two events.

But has anything really changed?

To wit, has anything happened that might shift the balance of power in the league?

Thus far, the shifts have been more subtle than seismic. I say that with one giant, LeBron-sized asterisk, because his free agency is the one true, June-level, needle-mover left on the board.

Still, the striking thing about the state of play, as things stand, is how little even the dramatic moves of this offseason stand to change things once we get to the highest levels of playoff basketball. The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat added Jaylen Brown and Giannis Antetokounmpo, respectively, yet still seem nowhere near good enough to make a conference finals, with each having glaring deficiencies in depth and shooting.

We’ll get to the LeBron James part of the equation. But assuming the other three major free agents left re-sign with their own teams, we can already see the outlines of what next season’s contender class looks like. Broadly speaking, it feels like a lot last year, with perhaps one notable exception. Geographically, it has tilted slightly East with Kawhi Leonard’s move to the Toronto Raptors, but unless James bookends Leonard’s L.A.-to-lakes journey by joining the Cleveland Cavaliers, the West still looks tougher.

Let’s take a quick look at the state of the league right now.

Tier 1: The two juggernauts — San Antonio, Oklahoma City

Vegas oddsmakers have the Spurs and Thunder as by far the two favorites to win the title next season. That might seem disrespectful to the champs, and we’ll get to them in a minute, but there’s a reason these two teams get so much love: They are really young, and they were tremendous last season, winning more than 60 games with dominant underlying stats. Only one can advance to the NBA Finals, but they’re good bets to have the two best regular-season records again.

Oklahoma City won more games than any other team each of the past two seasons, won the title in ’25 and lost the ’26 conference finals in seven games because of two key injuries. The Thunder still have the league’s deepest roster, its most dominant defense and a two-time MVP. Their entire offseason so far consists of shedding players they didn’t need a year ago, even though they were perfectly cromulent rotation players.

However, the important move was reworking Isaiah Hartenstein’s contract so the team can likely avoid the second apron and maintain flexibility for in-season needs. Even after winning 64 and 68 games the past two seasons with historic scoring margins, what’s wild is that the team is young enough that it’s likely to be even better next season.

San Antonio, of course, was outclassed by the New York Knicks in the finals but has even more of an age-related wind at its back than OKC with key players Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle all being in their early 20s. It’s not absurd to think that Wembanyama could win MVP and Harper could win Most Improved Player in the same season. The Spurs also addressed a key weakness with the addition of Tobias Harris, giving them a fourth-quarter-caliber power forward who was glaringly missing from the rotation when they were challenged against the Thunder and Knicks.

Tier 1A: The champs — New York

New York lost Mitchell Robinson, but I don’t see that as a serious problem. Yes, he helped at the margins, but he played only 13 minutes a game in the finals and even ceded minutes to Ariel Hukporti and Jeremy Sochan while the Knicks were coming back from 29 down in Game 4.

What I see as possibly more problematic is New York’s attempt to catch lightning in a bottle a second time next spring, or at least preserve the bolt from 2026. The Knicks were a good-but-not-great regular-season team whose not-particularly-young cast members are all a year older.

Re-climbing that mountain will be hard, and they won’t necessarily get the same breaks. Still, these would be your on-paper favorites in the East in any playoff tournament, even if they might not enter it as the top seed.

Tier II: The East insurgents — Boston, Detroit, Toronto

Elite teams in the East seemingly have better odds of making the finals than similarly talented ones in the West, based on the sheer fact of not having to go through both the Spurs and Thunder.

Boston would have been in Tier 1A with New York before the Brown trade. The Celtics have won more games than the Knicks three straight years, won the title in ’24 and had an injured Jayson Tatum at the end of the last three series they’ve lost. On the other hand, the Knicks had them on the ropes even before Tatum’s injury in ’25 and didn’t seem all that scared about potentially facing them in ’26 before the Sixers took care of that issue.

But the biggest reason to knock Boston down a peg is the Brown-for-Paul George swap. Yes, this may, possibly, ultimately, pay dividends in a three-dimensional-chess type of way based on subsequent deals the Celtics might make (more on that here). But in the short term, George’s contract is unmovable, and the Celtics are locked into the same Joe Mazzulla-ball style that has shown out much better in the regular season than in the playoffs.

Detroit won 60 games last season, but nobody talks about the Pistons when they talk about contenders. While the Pistons showed their warts in the 2026 playoffs, they also did a good job the past two weeks of repositioning the roster for the coming seasons. The nearly-free addition of Isaiah Joe should be a big boost to their limited floor spacing from a year ago, while John Collins won’t score like Harris but gives them more athletic zip. Obviously, as longtime readers know, the liberation of Paul Reed as a result of Isaiah Stewart’s departure will move the Pistons up several notches in the Hollinger rankings.

More seriously, the other reason to like the Pistons is that their powder remains dry. They are one of the few teams in this piece positioned to make major in-season upgrades based on their cap situation and draft capital. Detroit has all its future picks and is plus-six on future seconds, has a clean cap beyond this season and has multiple expiring or non-guaranteed contracts to use as a salary match. You never know which unhappy star will start searching for the exits at the trade deadline; you just know that every year it happens. The Pistons are primed to pounce.

One final note: I haven’t seen Detroit mentioned anywhere as a LeBron destination, but he’d really fit. Maybe it’s just a bridge too far for an Ohio guy.

Toronto must be taken seriously among the East’s elite. The Raptors were pretty good last year and just added a guy in Leonard who can win a playoff series by himself. They have a second star in Scottie Barnes, young players still capable of taking a step forward (Collin Murray-Boyles, Jamal Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter), R.J. Barrett’s expiring money and a tradable first to spice up their in-season moves.

Leonard’s iffy availability record and the team’s lack of shooting keep it out of the upper crust, but this is a strong team and one that may level up in the playoffs.

Tier III: If LeBron arrives — Cleveland, Denver, Minnesota

I see three teams that would jump into New York’s tier if one particular free agent decides to join their team on a low-dollar contract. Since all three appeared on Rich Paul’s whiteboard, let’s discuss.

Cleveland has the most talent, but has the most work to do to make the potential addition of James fit. You wonder if adding James would lead the Cavs to trade Jarrett Allen for a 3-and-D small forward, since James isn’t that guy anymore. The one glaring weakness on the Cavs’ roster is a shutdown wing with some size and, at this point, that’s much more valuable to them than another big or another on-ball player.

The Cavs also still have a tradable 2031 first-round pick and expiring or expiring-ish money with Max Strus and Dennis Schröder. They have to worry about the second apron, but if LeBron says he’s coming on a minimum deal then it’s damn-the-torpedoes time: use the picks, blow past the aprons and worry about the mess later. His arrival would make 2026-27, by far, this group’s best shot at a title.

Denver could really use a player like James, even if the Nuggets also have other needs on the wing and in the backcourt. Pairing his genius with that of Nikola Jokić would be so mesmerizing that it would offset the six-minute stretch each half of watching Julian Strawther-Zeke Nnaji units bleed 10-0 runs.

The Nuggets face an uphill climb staying level with the elite in the West despite having an MVP-caliber centerpiece in Jokić. While adding James would greatly elevate the overall talent level, I’m not sure he fixes the desperate need for more shooting and defense. If they could add him while keeping Peyton Watson and not shedding other players, I might feel more bullish.

Minnesota is the one team where James could make the most difference. Going from not having a real four to suddenly adding the best four on the market? Yeah, that would make a dent. James’s ballhandling and distribution would add some redundancy to offset LaMelo Ball’s injury-proneness, and his mere presence would make opponents think twice about doubling Anthony Edwards at half court as the Spurs did in the 2026 playoffs.

Also, everything else on the roster would basically snap together — Jaden McDaniels could still play small forward and guard the opponents’ best player, Ayo Dosunmu would slide back into a more natural sixth-man role and the wing depth wouldn’t seem so shaky as a result.

LeBron would be a legend if he went to Minnesota and won, although the odds in the West are still stacked against him. Against all odds, this is the outcome I’m rooting for.

Luka Dončić (right) won’t have LeBron James or Marcus Smart as teammates next season. (Troy Taormina/ Imagn Images)

Tier IV: The puncher’s chances — Indiana, Houston, L.A. Lakers, Miami, Philadelphia

Five other teams have at least an argument to be in the mix, and most of them aren’t done cooking yet. In particular, I’m intrigued to see what Indiana can do with Tyrese Haliburton returned from his Achilles injury and Ivica Zubac in the middle. I like the addition of Kelly Oubre, too. But I can’t automatically promote Indy back to elite status until we see how Hali looks.

Philadelphia still seems woefully thin and can’t count on Joel Embiid, but a Tyrese Maxey-VJ Edgecombe-Brown perimeter trio could be overwhelming.

The Lakers are losing James but have added Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes and Sandro Mamukelashvili and may have other additions coming. Luka Dončić could also push his way into the MVP race this year.

Ditto for Houston. While the 2026 playoffs were a crushing disappointment, the Rockets return Fred VanVleet from injury and have a lot of juice in the trade market with the future Suns picks they own and the 2027 swap with Brooklyn. Plus, their books are in solid shape.

Finally, Miami. Yes, the Heat added Giannis. Yes, adding both Giannis and LeBron in one offseason would be quite a coup. Would they even be good enough after those two additions? I have my doubts. The Heat have pulled rabbits out of hats before, and the offseason isn’t over yet, but on paper this might be the worst backcourt in the league. I can’t get there.