АНУ болон Ираны хоорондын гал зогсоох хэлэлцээр нуран унав

The prospects for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran have reached the most perilous point since the two warring parties agreed to a ceasefire in April.A day after ordering the most intense wave of airstrikes on Iran since that agreement went into effect, President Donald Trump on Wednesday proclaimed that he could resume striking Iran as early as tonight and restore the naval blockade after saying he believed the ceasefire was over.

His comments came after Iran attacked tanker ships in the Strait of Hormuz. There were also unconfirmed reports that Iran fired missiles and drones at U.S. warships.

Meanwhile, Iranian official media declared that the Memorandum of Understanding extending the ceasefire for 60 days to continue negotiations, worked out in Pakistan, is no longer in effect.

“The Islamabad Agreement is Dead,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-connected Tasnim media outlet stated on Telegram.

This latest and most serious flare-up of tensions came after Iran struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, as we reported. The attacks came during a pause in negotiations for the week-long funeral procession for the former Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the U.S.-Israeli attacks.

In response to those attacks, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it hit 85 targets across southern Iran, including “air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in and near the strait to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through the international trade corridor.”

Wednesday morning, Trump amped up the rhetoric during several bilateral meetings at the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey.

“We hit them very hard last night — very, very hard — and we’ll probably hit them hard again tonight,” Trump proffered. “They’re cuckoo. There’s something wrong with these people. For 47 years, they’ve been the bully of the Middle East… It’s very simple: they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump also shed additional light on yesterday’s attacks by CENTCOM.

“We attacked Kharg Island last night, knocked out a piece,” Trump stated. “I said, ‘Don’t touch the oil, because maybe we’ll take over Kharg Island.’ We may take over Kharg Island. It’s not a thing they can do about it, but I said, ‘Don’t hit the pipes, just hit everything else,’ and they hit it. They may hit it again tonight.”

You can read about what it would take to attack Kharg Island in our story here.

Trump also hinted that the naval blockade on Iran, lifted when the MoU was signed on June 17, might be resumed.

“And we may put down the blockade,” the American leader suggested. “We may put it back… and it will only be a blockade for Iran.”

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the Pentagon was prepared to resume attacks at an even higher level.

“Anything used to harass shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Anything they thought they had rebuilt or capability they were using was a target last night—and tonight, if we need to, on your order, Mr. President, we will hit even more, and even deeper,” he said.

All this came after Trump professed that the ceasefire had ended.

“To me, I think it’s over,” Trump exclaimed. “I don’t want to deal with them, but they’re scum. You know what scum is? They’re scum, they’re sick people, they’re led by sick people, and they’re vicious, violent people. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it.”

Iran, for its part, said that it struck 85 targets in Kuwait and Bahrain after the U.S. attacks.

Kuwaiti officials said they downed all the missiles and drones fired at them.

A U.S. official told us that damage to American facilities in the region was minimal.

“Regarding last night: No U.S. injuries. All missiles and drones fired by Iran were intercepted or failed to hit anything or cause major damage,” said the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. “Bottom line, Iran’s response was defeated.”

As for the future of negotiations, as we noted earlier in this story, Iran is also painting a grim picture.

“Trump, the self-proclaimed terrorist, officially announced the end of the Islamabad Agreement; an agreement that, although earnestly pursued by Iranian negotiators who emphasized the continuation of the struggle and acknowledged that dishonesty is inherent in the United States, was from the beginning clearly understood to be an agreement that would not be honored by the Americans, especially if Iran insisted on its rights,” Tasnim stated. “Trump and the terrorist U.S. government failed to implement the most important clause of the agreement, Clause 1, from the very beginning. Despite the efforts of officials, this agreement was essentially dead from the start, due to the Americans’ broken promises, and only last night was its death officially announced.”

Aside from taking swipes at Iran, Trump also lashed out at Spain for failing to allow the U.S. to have access to its airspace during Operation Epic Fury. The U.S. has several key military installations there, including Naval Station Rota and Moron Air Base. Both facilities had been used as staging grounds ahead of the attack on Iran.

“Spain is a terrible partner in NATO,” Trump complained at a news conference in Ankara with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. “They don’t participate. They don’t pay. I don’t want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain, please, including visits.”

Meanwhile, Rutte noted that Spain was an outlier when it came to supporting the U.S. war.

“I would say these are isolated cases; 5000 planes taking off from European airports in support of Epic Fury, it does Europe as one big platform of power projection for the United States, helping with Epic Fury,” Rutte explained.

As we have frequently seen since Operation Epic Fury was launched, tough talk from Trump or the Iranians does not always translate into action and things can and have quickly changed. Still, given what is at stake, we will continue to monitor this situation and provide updates when warranted.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

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