Санах ойн бүрэлдэхүүн хэсгүүдийн хомсдол болон үнийн өсөлтөөс шалтгаалан дэлхийн зах зээл дэх PC-ийн нийлүүлэлт сүүлийн есөн улирал дараалан өссөний дараа анх удаа 4.9 хувиар буурлаа.
IDC-ийн тайланд дурдсанаар, Lenovo, HP, болон Dell зэрэг томоохон үйлдвэрлэгчдийн борлуулалт өмнөх оны мөн үетэй харьцуулахад буурсан байна. Гэсэн хэдий ч Apple компани 6.1 саяас 6.7 сая нэгж хүртэлх өсөлт үзүүлж, зах зээлийн хувиа 9.9 хувьд хүргэсэн нь энэ салбарт гарсан томоохон өөрчлөлт болов.
Хэдийгээр нийт борлуулалт буурч байгаа ч компаниудын орлого төдийлөн багасаагүй байна. IDC-ийн судалгааны захирал Житэш Убранигийн тайлбарласнаар, нийлүүлэгчид санах ойн үнийн өсөлтийг бүтээгдэхүүнийхээ үнэд шилжүүлж байгаа тул борлуулалтын тоо буурсан ч орлогын хэмжээ өсөх хандлагатай байгаа аж.
Цаашид томоохон үйлдвэрлэгчид нийлүүлэлтийн сүлжээгээ тогтворжуулахын тулд санах ой болон хадгалах төхөөрөмж нийлүүлэх урт хугацааны гэрээнүүдийг түлхүү хийх төлөвтэй байна. Энэ нь жижиг тоглогчдын хувьд зах зээлд өрсөлдөх чадвараа хадгалахад хүндрэл учруулж болзошгүй юм.
Санах ойн хямрал ойрын нэг жилээс илүү хугацаанд үргэлжлэх төлөвтэй байгаа бөгөөд Bernstein-ийн шинжээчид DRAM болон NAND үнэ 2028 оны эцэс хүртэл буурахгүй байх магадлалтай гэж үзэж байна. Энэхүү нөхцөл байдал нь PC тоглоом сонирхогчид болон шинэчлэлт хийхээр төлөвлөж буй хэрэглэгчдийн хувьд хүндрэлтэй хэвээр байх болно.
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With the memory crisis in full swing, it’s becoming harder and harder to justify that PC upgrade. Though some will simply have enough money not to care, or will be forced to upgrade through breakages, others will simply go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for all of this to blow over. Well, that waiting seems to have resulted in a pretty large decline in PC shipments, year-over-year.
According to analysis from the IDC, worldwide PC shipments have fallen by 4.9% between Q2 last year to Q2 this year (via Wccftech). This is reportedly “the first decline after nine consecutive quarters of growth” and, you guessed it, the memory crisis is to blame.
Tracking shipments last year and this year, ICD reports Lenovo dropping from 17 million units to 16.6 million, HP from 14.3 million to 13 million, Dell from 9.8 million to 9.3 million, and Asus at nearly flat growth. The only winner over the last year is Apple, which grew from 6.1 million to 6.7 million, representing a pretty substantial 10% increase. Apple also jumped from an 8.5% market share to a 9.9% market share.
Despite declining shipments, many of these companies aren’t losing that much in revenue. That’s because they can counteract the loss of sales through rising memory costs by getting consumers to pay for the price-inflated stock. Jitesh Ubrani, the research director for consumer devices at IDC, says, “The real story here is the disconnect between units and dollars: shipments are falling, but revenue is climbing because vendors are pushing through price increases faster than demand is dropping.”
IDC says that supply chain management and capabilities will continue to be incredibly important going forward. Some major manufacturers will be increasingly signing long-term contracts to supply memory and storage for devices, in order to keep selling through the memory crisis. That probably doesn’t mean good things for smaller operators, as they’ll have to navigate the larger companies’ increased buying and negotiating power.
Others, such as Apple, have managed to capitalise on the problem with the launch of its budget-oriented MacBook Neo. Jean Philippe Bouchard, the vice president for consumer devices at IDC, says, “Apple’s share gain coincided with its latest product launch, the MacBook Neo, and while the company did raise prices in line with the broader market, it still remains well positioned against rivals facing the same cost pressures.”
It’s worth noting that this is a report on global PC shipments, not necessarily gaming PC shipments, which have historically fared better during periods of decline. But these are far from normal times, and the memory crisis seems set to rage for another year at least.
Bernstein research analysts reckon SK hynix will significantly reduce its prices by the end of 2028, but we are likely to see more increases before then. And even then, that’s a pretty optimistic outlook. If the memory crisis only lasts for another year and a half, I’d consider us rather lucky. It’s anyone’s guess what the PC market will look like by then, and who the winners of the memory crisis will be.
