Ираны зүгээс арилжааны хөлөг онгоцнууд руу чиглэсэн халдлагын давтамж огцом нэмэгдэж байгаа нь стратегийн ач холбогдолтой усан замыг бүрэн хаах зорилготой байж болзошгүй байна.
Хормузын хоолой орчимд сүүлийн 48 цагийн дотор Ираны зүгээс дроны болон бусад төрлийн довтолгоонууд хийсэн хэд хэдэн тохиолдол бүртгэгдсэнийг Их Британийн Далайн худалдааны үйл ажиллагааны газар (UKMTO) мэдээлэв. Үүний улмаас Сингапурын далбаатай “GFS Pride” чингэлэг тээвэрлэгч хөлөг живж, Антигуа болон Барбудагийн далбаатай “Cape Dao” хөлөг мөн живж байгаа талаар эх сурвалжууд мэдээлж байна. Ираны эрх баригчид “GFS Pride” хөлөг зөвшөөрөлгүй бүсэд явж байхдаа далайн минд өртсөн гэж мэдэгдсэн бол UKMTO хоёр хөлөг хоёулаа үл мэдэгдэх сумны цохилтод өртсөн байж болзошгүй гэж үзэж байна.
Ажиглагчдын үзэж буйгаар, Иран улс АНУ-д арваннэгдүгээр сарын 3-нд болох завсрын сонгуулийн өмнө шатахууны үнийг бууруулах Дональд Трампын оролдлогыг тасалдуулахын тулд ийнхүү халдлагын тактикаа өөрчилж, эрчимжүүлж байж болзошгүй аж. Аравдугаар сарын 11-нийг хүртэлх хоёр долоо хоногийн хугацаанд нийт 24 хөлөг онгоц халдлагад өртсөн бөгөөд үүнд газрын тос болон эрчим хүчний бүтээгдэхүүн тээвэрлэгч танкерууд багтаж байна. Энэхүү үйл явдлын улмаас Хормузын хоолойгоор дамжин өнгөрөх газрын тосны тээвэрлэлт эрс буурчээ.
Ираны удирдлагууд хөлөг онгоцнуудын эсрэг шинэ тактик хэрэглэж эхэлснээ хүлээн зөвшөөрсөн байна. АНУ-ын цэргийн албан тушаалтны мэдээлснээр, Ираны хувьсгалт гварди (IRGC) радарын чадавхи нь суларсны дараа жижиг завьтай ажиглагчдыг ашиглан байг илрүүлэх болжээ. Өнгөрсөн долоо хоногт АНУ-ын цэргийн хүчин Ираны ажиглагчид байрлаж байсан завьтай таарч, улмаар тус завьны багийнхныг орхин явахыг тушааж, завьыг устгасан байна.
Дэлгэрэнгүйг эх сурвалжаас харах
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A container ship has sunk near the strait of Hormuz and a second cargo vessel was reportedly sinking amid the sharpest uptick in Iranian attacks on shipping since the start of the US-Israel war with Iran.
The surge of attacks suggests Iran is trying to fully close the strategic waterway in a deliberate attempt to frustrate Donald Trump’s efforts to bring down fuel prices before the US midterm elections on 3 November.
The Trump administration has been attempting to deflect attention from the economic impact of the war on Iran by blaming Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries for increased fuel prices.
On Wednesday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported at least five incidents including drone strikes in the previous 48 hours targeting tankers and other commercial ships around the Hormuz area.
“There is a tempo increase in strikes, which looks deliberate,” one maritime security source said.
The Singapore-flagged GFS Pride container ship sank on Wednesday after an attack the previous day while in a separate incident, the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged Cape Dao was also reported to be sinking close to the strait after being previously hit by a projectile on 23 September, maritime security sources said.
Apparently referring to the GFS Pride, Iran said a cargo ship sank after hitting a naval mine while travelling an unauthorised passage through the strait.
State television quoted a statement from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) that said the ship was traveling on what it called an “illegal and dangerous route” when it hit the mine.
The unidentified ship, which was shown tilted in the water and spewing a thick plume of smoke, was carrying 2,500 containers, the broadcast said.
However, the UKTMO suggested that both ships had been hit by unidentified projectiles, raising questions over Tehran’s account.
Iran has repeatedly warned ships from trying to transit through the strait without its approval. The US military has been guiding ships through the waterway on a route nearer to Oman’s coast.
The latest attacks come as ships in the area were reporting an intense series of attacks in recent days with six vessels attacked on Sunday alone, according to UKTMO’s monitoring.
Analysis by the Financial Times said 24 ships were hit in the two weeks to 11 October. Of the vessels hit, three were refined energy product tankers while two others were crude oil tankers.
The increased tempo of Iranian attacks appears to have caused a dramatic drop off in oil shipments through the strait, as Tehran appears determined to demonstrate its ability to strike ships before the US midterms that will decide control of Congress.
US fuel prices have surged by almost 70% since Trump launched his war on Iran, and the Republican party is bracing for punishment at the polls.
According to two Iranian officials, Iran has recently begun using new tactics against vessels it considered in violation of its restrictions.
The strategy included a change in the type as well as the pace of attacks, with one goal being to influence the outcome of the US vote, they said.
“The aim is to frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices,” one of the two officials told Reuters.
The decision to adopt the new strategy had been taken at the highest levels of Iran’s leadership and was fully coordinated across the country’s ruling system, the officials added.
A US military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Tehran had changed tactics in one significant way. After the US destroyed much of Iran’s radar capabilities, the IRGC had started using unarmed spotters in small boats to identify potential targets, including American naval vessels, the official said.
Last week, in a previously unreported incident, the US military determined that Iranian spotters were operating from a dhow, calling in targets to the IRGC, the official said. US forces confronted the vessel, told its occupants to abandon ship and then destroyed it. There were no casualties, the US official said.
