NBA-ийн чөлөөт агентуудын зах зээл дэх хамгийн онцлох тоглогчид

The NBA free-agent market in general isn’t good, but it’s stronger at shooting guard than at most other spots.

Austin Reaves is an All-Star-caliber lead guard who will be a true unrestricted free agent, Norman Powell is also unrestricted while coming off an All-Star season, and players like Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are valuable performers who are still in their 20s.

According to my BORD$ formula, seven different shooting guards worth more than $10 million will hit unrestricted free agency this summer, while the LA Clippers’ interesting Bennedict Mathurin will hit the market via restricted free agency (more on the BORD$ methodology here). They’re all in their 20s except Powell, making it a strong environment to find a potential long-term starter.

As always, I’ve included all free agents and potential free agents due to player options, team options and non-guaranteed contracts, except for absurd cases where there is no chance of a player being waived and — importantly — also no chance for other cap shenanigans by declining options and signing new contracts. For instance, you can rest assured the Oklahoma City Thunder won’t be waiving Ajay Mitchell from his non-guaranteed deal for 2026-27 that pays him just $3 million. Ditto for Sidy Cissoko in Portland and Kris Dunn with the Clippers.

Free-agent market: Top 25

(PO = player option; TO = team option; NG = non-guaranteed; PG = partial guarantee; R = restricted)

Tier 1: Max guys

None

Tier 2: More than MLE, less than max

1. Austin Reaves, L.A. Lakers (PO): $34,429,743

Reaves obviously will opt out of his current deal, which pays him a mere pittance at $14.9 million for 2026-27, and the Lakers can use his artificially low cap hold ($20.9 million) to fill in the roster with cap room before coming back to sign him at a more market-appropriate contract. That landing point would seem about four years and $140 million, based on BORD$, for a 28-year-old who has defense and durability questions but also showed last season he can be a high-usage, lead initiator on offense.

However, the Lakers may be forced to go even higher. As one of the most prominent unrestricted free agents on the board, Reaves could command an over-the-top max offer from a talent-needy rival such as the Brooklyn Nets.

Tier 3: MLE guys

2. Keon Ellis, Cleveland: $19,989,738

My numbers have always been far, far more bullish on Ellis than the people who coach his teams, and this valuation is no exception. The Cavs barely used Ellis after acquiring him at midseason from Sacramento, whose more baffling unwillingness to put him on the court made him available in the first place.

At his best, Ellis is a plus defender at guard who is money on open 3s (40.7 percent career!), but he’s undersized against apex wings and doesn’t offer a lot of shot creation. Because of that, I’d say his true market is probably for half this amount. Even at that price, the Cavs’ tax issues seem to make them an unlikely destination. At 26 years old, Ellis could be a nice fit on a rebuilding team, such as Brooklyn, or one emerging from hibernation, such as Utah or Washington.

3. Norman Powell, Miami: $19,165,238

Powell made the All-Star team ahead of his teammate who both had an 83-point game and made the All-Defensive team, an objectively hilarious overreaction to Powell’s torrid shooting in the first half of the season. At age 33, the market isn’t going to get too overheated for Powell, especially on a longer deal, and Miami’s other offseason uncertainties (cough Giannis cough) could limit how far the Heat are willing to go to retain him as free agency kicks off.

That said, Miami has full Bird rights, and the tax and apron situations are very manageable. On a short deal, his contract will be tradeable. There’s a case for a short-term overpay — say, two years and $50 million — to give Miami enough ballast to salary match in trades later.

4. Coby White, Charlotte: $18,121,736

White is a valuable scorer who profiles more as an elite sixth man than a starter, but he can play on or off the ball and has enough size to check shooting guards. That should get his price point to the non-taxpayer MLE at the very least, and likely above it given his age (26) and the presence of multiple cap-room teams. Charlotte has some minor tax issues if it pays him full freight, but those could easily be resolved by dropping off an underperforming low-eight-figure contract, such as those of Grant Williams, Josh Green and/or Tre Mann, someplace else.

5. Ayo Dosunmu, Minnesota: $14,485,494

After a midseason trade from Chicago, Dosunmu proved his worth to Minnesota in the postseason with a 43-point game and several other notable performances. He’s an unrestricted free agent, so the Wolves will have to deliver a market-value deal, but it seems like they could come in at the nontaxpayer MLE or slightly above and ward off any reasonable competition on a three-year deal for the 26-year-old.

The trick for Minnesota is that his Bird rights mean the Wolves don’t have to worry about tax aprons when re-signing him, making him much more valuable for their purposes than another player they signed for the same money with the MLE.

6. Jordan Goodwin, Phoenix: $12,832,658

Goodwin is a valuable player, but one whom teams may have trouble valuing, at least in a free-agency environment. BORD$ has always been a much bigger fan of Goodwin than the NBA market, which has never seen him make more than the minimum. Even after a breakout year in Phoenix, his odd profile — not really a shot creator or point guard, not really a shooter (although his 37.1 percent from 3 on real volume last season could change some minds on that front), but a ballhawking defender who is also an utterly insane offensive rebounder for 6 feet 3 — doesn’t neatly slide into most NBA rotation boxes.

The Suns did a great job of getting the most from Goodwin’s skill set, but Phoenix also has some budget limitations this summer, and the Suns’ first priorities likely are Collin Gillespie and Mark Williams. He may have to settle once again for a smaller number than BORD$ suggests.

Tier 4: Less than MLE, more than minimum

7. Bennedict Mathurin, LA Clippers (R): $11,961,877

A divisive restricted free agent who might be described as “Jonathan Kuminga 2.0”, Mathurin is a natural scorer who draws heaps of free throws, but his deficiencies in other phases of the game made him expendable in Indiana and stopped him from claiming a starting role with the Clippers.

At age 23, on a Clippers team that badly needs infusions of youth and athleticism, he’d be a solid bet for this particular franchise, and of course, the Clippers will have matching rights. (Mathurin’s qualifying offer is $8.8 million because he didn’t meet the starter criteria; surely the Clippers should tender that number.)

Overall, the risk/reward on locking in multiple years at midlevel-ish money feels like a good gamble. The one wild card, however, is that the Clippers also have cap-room scenarios that could involve either letting him walk or trying to get him to ink a “one-plus-one” short-term deal for the estimated $9.4 million room exception.

8. Quentin Grimes, Philadelphia: $11,640,346

One wonders if the new regime in Philadelphia will feel similar to the old one, which seemingly chose Grimes over Jared McCain at the trade deadline. There’s also the matter of Grimes perhaps wanting to chase a starting role somewhere else rather than being permanently etched into a backup role in Philly behind two young star guards. The fact that new GM Mike Gansey spoke openly about using the Sixers’ non-taxpayer MLE is another sign Grimes might be a goner. That can really only happen if Grimes leaves. I could see his market going higher than this BORD$ value, all the way up to the full MLE, if he finds the right mix of desperation and cap flexibility.

9. Pelle Larsson, Miami (TONG): $11,334,890

Larsson is obviously worth way more than his minimum contract for this coming season, but he is listed here for the purposes of a “decline-and-resign” scenario where the Heat try to lock in a good long-term number in return for ripping up the last year of his deal. Something around three years and $25 million, for instance, might be a nice way to bridge his cheapo deal for 2026-27 with his impending free agency afterward. Between his age (25), his role and his being a core #HeatCulture guy, he’ll be back in Miami one way or another.

10. Zach LaVine, Sacramento (PO): $9,332,241

You have better odds of getting invited to the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding than you do of seeing LaVine in free agency, with a $49 million player option for this season that is a massive overpay relative to his recent production. I presume the Kings aren’t crazy enough to stretch him, but with their tax issues, that’s a possibility.

11. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (PO): $8,663,942

As with LaVine above, there is basically zero chance Caldwell-Pope declines his $21 million player option and hits a market that would likely value him at a fraction of that amount.

12. Luke Kennard, L.A. Lakers: $7,376,308

The Lakers likely will renounce Kennard to open up a trove of cap room. However, the scenario I wonder about with Kennard is him staying with the Lakers via their room exception, which starts at a projected $9.4 million and is a pretty close match to both Kennard’s BORD$ value and what he got on the market last summer (one year at $11 million). He played much better in L.A. than he did in Atlanta, in particular showing more aggression taking the semi-open 3s that he too often passed up in stops with the Hawks and Grizzlies.

13. Jamir Watkins, Washington (TO): $7,283,228

This one looks like a classic decline-and-resign scenario for Washington. Watkins signed last spring off his two-way to a straight minimum deal with a second-year team option, one that allows the Wizards to decline the option and re-up on a longer deal this summer after Watkins showed himself to be an absolute hellhound on defense in his rookie season. As a non-Bird free agent, if the option is declined, Washington can start Watkins’ next deal at $2.62 million or less in 2026-27 without needing to dip into exception money.

14. Landry Shamet, New York: $6,915,116

The Knicks will have early Bird rights on Shamet, and after the spring he had in New York, the Knicks will need them to have any chance of retaining his services. New York’s second-apron situation could also make keeping players such as Shamet and Mitchell Robinson complicated, especially since BORD$ doesn’t factor in the playoffs and Shamet’s price likely has been driven much higher than the number listed here.

15. Kobe Sanders, LA Clippers (TONG): $6,931,825

This is a similar decline-and-resign situation to the one with Watkins above. Sanders was a second-round pick who showed himself capable of back-end rotation minutes thanks to a solid handle for his size and good elevation on his midrange jumper. As a non-Bird free agent, if the option is declined, the Clippers can start him at $2.62 million in 2026-27 without going into exception money.

16. Tim Hardaway Jr., Denver: $6,366,071

Hardaway signed a one-year deal for the minimum in Denver and has earned a raise after a solid year off the bench. He’s 34 and coming off career highs in both 3-point and 2-point percentage, so some regression may be in order, but he’s clearly worth the biannual exception (at least), projected to be $5.5 million, on a one-year deal or a longer one with some team options built in.

17. Jordan Miller, LA Clippers (TO): $6,356,903

This is another decline-and-resign scenario, albeit with an older player (age 26) who is coming off his third season with the Clippers. As a result, the Clippers have full Bird rights on Miller and have no contractual restraints. That’s especially helpful if they operate as a cap room team, given that Miller’s cap hold is only for the minimum. In layman’s terms, that means the Clippers can back up the truck and load it with other contracts before coming back to take care of Miller.

18. Buddy Hield, Atlanta (PG): $5,536,529

The bizarre thing about the Hawks putting Hield on ice once he arrived via trade in February is that, by most indications, he can still play. Hield scored 31 points in the one game he saw double-digit minutes and, even with outlier bad shooting by his standards (34.9 percent from 3 last season) he still had a decent overall stat line. The Hawks will likely waive his partially guaranteed deal, leaving him open to sign for the minimum or biannual exception as a hired gun off the bench.

19. Cam Thomas, last with Milwaukee: $5,119,082

This valuation is pretty aggressive for Thomas, as the league seems to be exhausted with his shoot-first style, and he might need to go overseas to rebuild his value. On the right team, he can be a floor-raiser for the second unit because of his shot creation, but he also crashed out of that exact role in Brooklyn and Milwaukee.

20. De’Anthony Melton, Golden State (PO): $5,037,613

Melton has proven to be valuable when he can stay on the court, as he showed again in 49 solid games with the Warriors last season. He’s on a minimum deal with a player option and likely will opt out for a slightly bigger payday. He could be a target with a team’s biannual or room exception. A less likely but still possible scenario is that the Warriors bring him back as a non-Bird free agent starting at $3.94 million in 2026-27, possibly with another player option tacked on in 2027-28.

Tier 5: Good minimums

21. Malik Beasley, did not play in 2025-26

Beasley showed his value in a torrid shooting 2024-25 season, but he is radioactive until an investigation into alleged illegal gambling is settled. He’s clearly worth room-exception-type money (at least) if he’s cleared to play, but in the short term, it seems unlikely we’ll see him on an NBA team.

22. Matisse Thybulle, Portland

One of the game’s most phenomenal defensive players, Thybulle is the NBA’s Warren Buffett: Nobody is better at hoarding stocks. He still rates as a minimum guy by BORD$, however, for two reasons: First, there’s another side of the ball, and his low-volume shooting and lack of playmaking feel make it tough to keep him on the floor in fourth quarters. The other thing that makes it hard to keep him on the floor is the fact that he’s constantly injured; Thybulle only played 45 games, combined, over the last two seasons, and has cleared 66 games just once in seven NBA seasons.

23. Jordan Clarkson, New York

Clarkson rebirthed his career in New York as a role-playing bench wing who feasts on offensive boards (no, really) and plays more defense than the Utah version. Between that and his general locker room popularity, he should be able to continue this second act as a fourth guard for a while longer.

Bradley Beal has seen his value dip in the past couple of seasons. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)

24. Bradley Beal, LA Clippers (PO)

I presume Beal will opt in to the $5.2 million he’s owed after only appearing in six games for the Clippers in 2025-26. The demand for his services has cratered since his Washington days because of constant injuries and a dip in effectiveness when he’s played, but the healthy version of Beal can still be a plus sixth man.

25. Gary Trent, Milwaukee (PO)

Trent is unlikely to opt out of his deal for $3.8 million for a bigger payday, given what a rough 2025-26 season he had. But he may opt out to sign what is effectively the same contract (a one-year minimum) that saves the Bucks about $1.5 million on their cap sheet.

26. Ochai Agbaji, Brooklyn (R)

A restricted free agent strictly in theory, there is little to no chance that Brooklyn will issue the $8.8 million qualifying offer to make Agbaji an RFA in practice. Agbaji is a good athlete, and his jump shot remains pristine in warm-ups, lofting beautiful 45-degree parabolas, but it has never translated into his being a high-volume weapon in games. He’s likely looking at a minimum deal as a fifth wing, although the Nets could end up doing a weird one-year balloon payment with him if they can’t use their mountain of cap space this summer.

27. Bogdan Bogdanović, LA Clippers (TO)

The Clippers will surely decline his $16 million option after knee issues have rendered Bogdanović ineffective over the last two seasons. The question is what happens afterward. A landing spot on a one-year deal for the minimum seems possible if he can prove he has his legs. Bogdanović was one of the league’s best sixth men in 2023-24 before his lower appendages betrayed him.

28. Myron Gardner, Miami (TONG)

The Heat got another one, huh? Undrafted out of Arkansas-Little Rock and signed to a two-way, Gardner proved to be a pesky defender who also shot 40.6 percent from 3 as a 24-year-old rookie. His contract is set up perfectly for a decline-and-resign that lets the Heat lock him in for a longer deal this summer, which Miami presumably will do.

29. Quenton Jackson, Indiana (PG)

Jackson is at a different stage than most players on this list, entering his age-28 season after a solid 49-game 2025-26 season for the flailing Pacers. He has a $2.6 million contract that only has $275,000 guaranteed, but it becomes a full guarantee after July 15. I think he played well enough last year to earn the roster spot and the guarantee.

30. A.J. Lawson, Toronto

An NBA-caliber defender who rebounds surprisingly well for a guy who weighs 180 pounds, Lawson also shocked the masses by shooting 42.2 percent from 3 last season. While that number is likely an outlier based on his previous track record, he just needs to make one out of three or so to justify a roster spot. It seems returning on a minimum deal would be a reasonable accommodation.

Tier 6: Fringe guys, two-ways

31. Pat Connaughton, Charlotte (TONG)

The 33-year-old OG of an otherwise very young Hornets team, Connaughton was waived to accommodate a deadline trade and then brought back, signaling that the Hornets valued him beyond his meager on-court minutes. Speaking of which, when he played, he was actually pretty decent: Connaughton had a 12.9 PER and a positive BPM in his 297 minutes.

His contract is set up to be able to use his $3.8 million salary in a trade if needed, but what’s more likely is that they decline his option and then bring him back on a veteran minimum deal that counts for barely half as much on their cap sheet.

32. Gary Harris, Milwaukee (PO)

As with Trent above, there is little chance of Harris opting out of a $3.8 million deal after he mostly fell out of the Bucks’ rotation, but he could opt out to re-sign another deal for the vet minimum — costing him nothing but saving Milwaukee $1.5 million on the cap sheet.

33. Jayden Clark, Minnesota (R)

Clark is a good defender with a nose for the ball, but his offensive limitations have made it difficult for him to carve out any kind of permanent role. Now that his rookie contract has expired, one wonders if his next deal might be a two-way (he still has one year of eligibility left) on a rebuilding team that can offer a clearer pathway to eventual playing time if his shooting comes around.

34. Dante Exum, last with Washington

Exum only played 20 games last year before suffering (yet another) season-ending injury; Dallas dumped his salary on the Wizards, who cut him. He’ll be 31 on opening day, but his past year-plus in Dallas was solid enough to warrant a roster spot as a fifth guard.

35. Lindy Waters II, San Antonio

I’m not really sure why the Spurs didn’t try harder to upgrade this position before the playoffs. Waters has played five NBA seasons and has his uses as a back-end roster guy, but his no longer being two-way eligible may result in him being squeezed out.

36. Nick Smith Jr., L.A. Lakers

Smith signed a roster deal with the Lakers at the end of last season, but the fact that he’s still two-way eligible and only 22 years old may be his best pathway to NBA relevance. Smith shows plus quickness and can go on impressive shooting jags — he made 39.5 percent from 3 last season on high volume — but he’s also badly undersized for an off-ball guard, and his defense is really inconsistent. I don’t think his 30 games with the Lakers were quite strong enough to make a case for a guaranteed minimum deal.

37. Garrett Temple, Toronto

An elite culture guy, the 40-year-old Temple is basically an assistant coach at this point. He played 22 games last season and scored four baskets. If this is the end, a 16-year career after going undrafted is a pretty impressive feat, and he’ll likely have a lot of interest in coaching or front office work.

38. Seth Curry, Golden State

Injuries limited Curry to 10 games in 2025-26. He shot 45.6 percent from 3 in Charlotte the year before, but he turns 36 this summer, has limited shot creation skill and is badly undersized. He’s still worth having around if he can stay on the court.

39. Cam Christie, LA Clippers (NG)

Christie was selected as a long-term development pick, but after two uneventful seasons and a career 45.5 percent mark on shots inside the arc (in addition to underwhelming accuracy outside it), the Clippers might be tempted to cut bait. His $2.3 million contract becomes guaranteed on June 30, and the Clippers have cap-room scenarios that require waiving him. However, one way this could end up is with him taking a two-way next year to stay in LA, since he still has eligibility.

What will the Lakers do with Bronny James’ contract? (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)

40. Bronny James, L.A. Lakers (PG)

Far be it from me to suggest that James’ contract guarantee may be contingent on the fate of another player in free agency, but he finished his second season with a PER of 9.0 and minus-4.5 BPM in 42 appearances. His deal is slightly more than half-guaranteed but goes full if he isn’t waived by June 29. At the margins, the Lakers’ offseason cap-room strategy is slightly improved by stretching his $1.26 million over five years rather than paying him a $2.3 million guarantee.

41. Bez Mbeng, Utah (TONG)

The worst player in NBA history to record a triple-double. Hey, somebody has to be. In truth, Mbeng wasn’t terrible in his 15 late-season games, even if he helped the Jazz play that way, and should be a strong two-way candidate.

42. Max Shulga, Boston (TONG)

The late second-round pick in 2025 signed a roster deal to help the Celtics avoid the luxury tax, but I expect that the Celtics would decline his option to help rebuild the back end of their roster and try to bring him back on a two-way instead.

43. Killian Hayes, Sacramento (TONG)

The Kings brought in Hayes for 23 games at the end of the year to see if he was any better than he showed in Detroit. He was not.

Hayes shot 30.4 percent from the field and was among the league’s most destructive offensive players. He’s also no longer two-way eligible, so unless the Kings need to use his contract in a trade, I presume they will either decline the option or cut him, and he’ll end up back in Europe.

44. Vince Williams, last with Utah

The Jazz waived Williams after he tore his ACL late last season, and he will likely miss most or all of the 2026-27 campaign. He’s clearly a roster-caliber player when healthy but has no two-way eligibility left. However, he would be a good pickup on an Exhibit 10 deal. That arrangement would allow a team to monitor his rehab and give him reps with the G League squad, then add him after the trade deadline when roster spots typically open up.

45. Hayden Gray, Utah (TONG)

Technically an NBA player until further notice, as he signed on the last day of the season and scored six points in 25 minutes for the merry band of castoffs dressed up as Jazz basketball players. The Jazz will waive Gray if they can’t use his salary in a trade, but he does have a somewhat realistic chance of getting a two-way deal after a solid 2025-26 G League season in Maine.