НБА-гийн драфтын стратеги ба залуу тоглогчдын хөгжил

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Энэхүү мэдээ, нийтлэлийг хиймэл оюун боловсруулав.

Виктор Вембаньяма тэргүүтэй Сан-Антонио Спёрс анх удаа финалын шатанд шалгарч, НБА-д шинэ эрин үе эхэлснийг зарлалаа.

НБА-гийн багууд улирлын дундуур драфтаар сонгосон залуу тоглогчдоо хөгжүүлэх болон шуурхай үр дүн гаргах хоёрын хооронд тэнцвэр олох сорилттой тулгардаг. Сан-Антонио Спёрс сүүлийн гурван жилд драфтаар сонгосон дөрвөн тоглогчоо үндсэн бүрэлдэхүүндээ амжилттай нэгтгэж, зургаан жилийн дараа финалын шатанд шалгарсан нь үүний тод жишээ юм. Багууд гурван жилийн хугацаанд залуу тоглогчдын гэрээг сунгах эсэхээ шийддэг тул драфтын сонголт нь зөвхөн хэрэгцээ төдийгүй багийн бүрэлдэхүүний гүн болон тоглогчдын хөгжлийн хурдаас шууд хамаардаг.

Өрнөд бүсийн багуудын хувьд драфтын стратеги нь ирэх улирлын бүрэлдэхүүнд чухал нөлөөтэй байна. Тухайлбал, Оклахома-Сити Тандер улирлын турш хамгийн залуу, шилдэг баг байж чадсан бол Даллас Маверикс драфтын шинэ од Купер Флэггээр хүчээ зузаатгав. Харин Денвер Наггетс болон Лос-Анжелес Лейкерс зэрэг багууд сүүлийн жилүүдийн драфтын сонголтоосоо хангалттай үр дүн авч чадаагүй нь тэднийг энэ зуны драфтаар хамгаалалт болон дамжуулалтын чиглэлд анхаарах шаардлагатай болгож байна.

Мемфис Гриззлис багийн хувьд сүүлийн гурван жил дараалан драфтын шилдэг залуусыг бүрэлдэхүүндээ нэгтгэж чадсан нь ирээдүйн өрсөлдөх чадварыг нь өсгөж байна. Сакраменто Кингс болон Лос-Анжелес Клипперс багууд драфтын өндөр сонголтуудаа ашиглан гарааны тоглогчдынхоо залгамж халааг бэлтгэхээр зэхэж байна. Эдгээр баг нь ирэх улиралд залуу тоглогчдын ур чадварыг дээшлүүлж, багийн гүн болон хамгаалалтын асуудлаа шийдвэрлэх нь тэдний гол зорилго болох юм.

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The NBA offseason now turns to the draft, a two-day event where teams get cost-controlled talent for the short-term future.

Every player entering the draft hopes to carve out a long-term future in the league. But in this era of team-building, teams often think in shorter windows. When teams are deciding on their upcoming draft classes, they have to consider the development of the incumbent young players. Sometimes, teams decide against having young players at all.

The 2026 NBA Finals offered two extremes. The San Antonio Spurs ended a six-year postseason drought and reached the finals with six players who they drafted in their 10-man rotation, including four drafted in the last three years.

This survey looks at every player from the 2023, 2024 and 2025 draft classes who finished the 2025-26 season on a roster, including undrafted players and two-way contracts. Players who finished the season on hardship exceptions are excluded unless they were later signed to standard contracts. This will also denote which players could be 2026 free agents (FA).

The three-year window is key because that’s how long a team has until it has to make decisions on rookie-scale contract extensions. By then, teams expect answers. They don’t just draft for need. They draft for fit, for positional depth and to replace young players who have not developed quickly enough.

Here’s a team-by-team look at the Western Conference’s developmental corps and how it may shape each team’s draft strategy. (See here for the 2024 and 2025 surveys.)

Three Takeaways: Wembanyama earns his first Finals appearance

Nick Friedell


Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets

2023 draft: SF Julian Strawther, SG Jalen Pickett (FA)
2024 draft: PF DaRon Holmes II, PG KJ Simpson (2W)
2025 draft: N/A
Undrafted since 2023: SF Spencer Jones (FA), SG Curtis Jones (2W, FA)

Analysis:The Nuggets have had an uninspiring run of adding to the developmental corps since winning the 2023 NBA championship. Spencer Jones was the bright spot as an adequate 3-and-D forward whose funky release limits his volume; he was promoted from a two-way contract in February. Pickett always gets his minutes canceled by the postseason. Strawther can shoot but his defense is porous. All seven of Holmes’ 15-minute games came while Nikola Jokić was out with a knee injury; he showed some ability to pass and shoot, but it’s clear that he hasn’t returned to form after missing his rookie year due to a torn Achilles.

2026 draft picks: 26, 49

Draft need:Denver had the worst defense of any playoff team, and no team was worse at forcing turnovers in the entire league. The Nuggets could use a point-of-attack defender guard, and should also consider a developmental center in the second round — that has worked out for this franchise before.

Minnesota Timberwolves

2023 draft: PF Julian Phillips (FA), SF Jaylen Clark (FA)
2024 draft: SG Terrence Shannon Jr., PF Enrique Freeman (2W, FA)
2025 draft: C Joan Beringer, C Rocco Zikarsky (2W)
Undrafted since 2023: PG Zyon Pullin

Analysis:Minnesota was one of the more top-heavy teams in the league, which left most of its developmental corps shut out, save for one exception. Shannon didn’t play much in the regular season due to injuries and mistakes, but he wound up helping the Timberwolves close out the Nuggets in the first round after Donte DiVincenzo and Ayo Dosunmu suffered injuries. Clark is a rugged defender but his offensive limitations make it hard for him to stay on the floor in the playoffs. Beringer is the center of the future, but he cleared 15 minutes just seven times. Fifty-three of the 94 minutes Phillips played after being traded from Chicago came in the final week of the season.

2026 draft picks: 28, 59

Draft need:The Timberwolves punted on 2024 lottery pick Rob Dillingham for Dosunmu’s unrestricted free agency. While Dosunmu is a priority, Minnesota also lost DiVincenzo to an Achilles tear, while free agent Mike Conley is in the twilight of his career. Bones Hyland is also a free agent. Minnesota should target another true point guard while adding a developmental forward.

Oklahoma City Thunder

2023 draft: SG Cason Wallace
2024 draft: PG Nikola Topić, PG Jared McCain, PG Ajay Mitchell
2025 draft: C Thomas Sorber, SF Brooks Barnhizer (2W, FA)
Undrafted since 2023: C Branden Carlson (2W, FA), SF Payton Sandfort (2W)

Analysis:The Thunder were the league’s best team in the regular season, and while they were the youngest team to win a playoff series, they aren’t that young anymore. Wallace earned a spot on the All-Defense Second Team after leading the NBA with 150 steals. He’s about to get paid and likely be a permanent starter soon. Mitchell emerged as Oklahoma City’s top bench scorer, and he destroyed the Lakers in the playoffs. McCain fit marvelously as a confident shooter after Philadelphia traded him at the deadline. Topić has unfortunately been unable to get his career off the ground due to ACL surgery and cancer. Now back surgery will sideline him for the summer. Sorber also missed his rookie season due to an ACL tear.

2026 draft picks: 12, 17, 37

Draft need:Oklahoma City got a lottery pick after the Clippers flunked the Play-In Tournament due to the 2019 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander trade. They also got Philadelphia’s first-round pick after the 2020 Al Horford trade. The Thunder need another power forward — not because they should quit Chet Holmgren, but because they don’t have a physical forward on their roster, let alone the developmental corps.

Portland Trail Blazers

2023 draft: PG Scoot Henderson, PF Kris Murray, SF Sidy Cissoko, PF Toumani Camara
2024 draft: C Donovan Clingan
2025 draft: C Yang Hansen
Undrafted since 2023: PG Caleb Love (2W, FA), SG Chris Youngblood (2W), SF Jayson Kent (2W)

Analysis: It was a weird season in Portland, but one that saw some of the most contributions from a developmental corps for a playoff team. Camara was one of four players to start all 82 games and was one of 22 players to make more than 200 3s; he’s already on a contract extension that goes through 2030. Clingan led the NBA in offensive rebounds while blocking 130 shots and averaging a double-double. Murray soaks up minutes in the regular season as a rotational defender, but his offense got his minutes canceled in the playoffs. Henderson didn’t debut until February due to a torn hamstring, but he became a starter by the end of the season before an up-and-down playoff series against the Spurs. Portland traded the Cedric Coward pick to move out of last year’s lottery, acquiring Orlando’s 2028 first-round pick and Yang, who had a messy rookie season (31 percent from the field). Like Murray, Cissoko played a lot during the regular season but was too harmful offensively to play in the playoffs. Keeping with the theme of the Trail Blazers employing ineffective regular-season options, Love was the only rookie who cleared 1,000 minutes this season on a two-way contract. Henderson’s return from injury limited his role later in the year.

2026 draft picks: N/A

Draft need:Portland finally sent the Bulls a first-round pick after the 2021 Lauri Markkanen trade; all the Blazers got out of that deal was the right to get off of Derrick Jones Jr.’s contract and acquire 37 games of service from Larry Nance Jr. before Nance was included in the CJ McCollum trade. Damian Lillard is coming back after missing the season due to an Achilles tear. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Portland add another developmental point guard to challenge Love, given the ages of Lillard and Holiday and the uneven Henderson experience.

Utah Jazz

2023 draft: PG Keyonte George, PF Brice Sensabaugh
2024 draft: SF Cody Williams, PG Isaiah Collier, C Kyle Filipowski
2025 draft: SG Ace Bailey
Undrafted since 2023: PG Elijah Harkless (2W, FA), C Oscar Tshiebwe (2W, FA), PF Blake Hinson (2W), SG Bez Mbeng (FA), PG Hayden Gray (FA)

Analysis:Only six players cleared 1,500 minutes for the Jazz this season. All six were on Jazz draft picks on rookie contracts. George enjoyed a third-year breakout as the starting point guard before missing the final month of the season. Bailey was an All-Rookie Second Team selection; half of his 20-point games came in the last 46 days of the season. Sensabaugh showed more explosiveness to go with growing versatility as a shooter. Filipowski is a skilled change-of-pace big. Collier had more 10-assist games (10) than George (4), including a 22-assist game in February at Indiana. He just hasn’t figured out the 3-point line yet (27 percent). Williams was an improved finisher compared to the troubling depths of his rookie season, but he got worse as a 3-point shooter. The Jazz signed Mbeng and Gray for silly season; Mbeng at least got a 27-point triple-double out of it against the Grizzlies.

2026 draft picks: 2

Draft need:The tank was spectacular in Utah this season, but the Jazz finally got a top-four pick for their troubles. The defense should be much improved if restricted free agent Walker Kessler is retained to team up with midseason trade/tank acquisition Jaren Jackson Jr. Darryn Peterson would round out the developmental corps nicely from a positional standpoint.

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors

2023 draft: PG Brandin Podziemski
2024 draft: C Quinten Post (FA)
2025 draft: SF Will Richard
Undrafted since 2023: PF Malevy Leons (2W), SG LJ Cryer (2W)

Analysis:The Warriors were the oldest team in the NBA that finished the regular season with a losing record. But the only player to clear 2,000 minutes for the Warriors was Podziemski, who appeared in all 82 games while providing decent production on both ends of the floor, at both backcourt spots, and in both the first and second units. Richard was adequate as an undersized 3-and-D wing. Post is a pick-and-pop stretch five who plays for a team that is allergic to the paint.

2026 draft picks: 11, 54

Draft need:Golden State was one of the five worst teams in the league at preventing turnovers this season. The devastating knee injuries to Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody, along with Stephen Curry’s age and the free agency of Draymond Green, De’Anthony Melton, Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II and Seth Curry should encourage the Warriors to consider a true point guard. Golden State has found contributors very late in the draft, so that could be a spot where they seek frontcourt depth, given the free agency of Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford and Charles Bassey.

LA Clippers

2023 draft: SF Jordan Miller (FA)
2024 draft: SF Cam Christie
2025 draft: C Yanic Konan Niederhäuser, PG Kobe Sanders (FA)
Undrafted since 2023: PG Sean Pedulla (2W), PF Norchad Omier (2W, FA)

Analysis:The Clippers were the oldest team in the NBA, even after trades that significantly lowered their average age. Miller’s roller-coaster experience on the Clippers roster went for another upswing after getting promoted from a two-way contract for the second season in a row. This time, Miller stayed in the rotation and turned in strong shooting percentages while showing some confidence as a ballhandler. Sanders went from Nevada’s starting point guard to earning a promotion from a two-way contract while playing every position except for center and hitting 40.8 percent from 3. Niederhäuser was progressing as an exceptional vertical threat and rim protector, but he suffered a Lisfranc injury to his right foot that required season-ending surgery. He’s not expected to be ready for the start of next season. Christie plays hard but made just 38.1 percent from the field and 24.5 percent from 3.

2026 draft picks: 5, 36, 52

Draft need:LA’s Play-In failure gave the Thunder a lottery pick, but the misfortune of the Indiana Pacers more than makes up for it. This is LA’s highest draft pick since their 15-year streak of consecutive winning seasons began. The Clippers need help at power forward after a bottom-10 rebounding season, but their pick may be one spot too low to address that need with a top-tier prospect. If the Clippers keep the lottery pick, then ballhandling help should be a priority, even with Darius Garland entrenched as the new starter.

Los Angeles Lakers

2023 draft: SG Nick Smith Jr. (FA)
2024 draft: SF Dalton Knecht, PG Bronny James
2025 draft: PF Adou Thiero
Undrafted since 2023: PF Drew Timme (2W, FA), SF Chris Mañon (2W, FA)

Analysis:The Lakers had one of the least impactful developmental corps in the league. When fully healthy, none of the young Lakers were in the rotation. Smith was a former Hornets first-round pick who was waived before training camp and spent the entire season on a two-way contract with the Lakers until the last day of the season. Knecht had a seven-game rotation run to begin January that was intended to boost his trade value. After missing 19 of 23 3s, scoring 22 points on 31 shots and compiling a 1:7 assist-turnover ratio, Knecht reached 15 minutes in only two more games for the rest of the season. James improved to 38.6 percent on 3s and 85.7 percent from the free-throw line while holding up defensively, but he’s too timid offensively. Thiero’s knee issues caused him to miss summer league, preseason and chunks of the regular season. He’s an explosive athlete who needs a lot of work on his shooting and non-dunk finishing.

2026 draft picks: 25

Draft need:Los Angeles needs defenders and for ballhandling depth. A lot of teams can say that, but the Lakers had a rather severe lack of two-way players. The rim protection was also some of the very worst in the league. All of their centers could be free agents and there are no developmental centers, either. There will be some options for the Lakers late in the first round.

Phoenix Suns

2023 draft: N/A
2024 draft: PF Ryan Dunn, C Oso Ighodaro
2025 draft: C Khaman Maluach, PF Rasheer Fleming, SG Koby Brea (2W, FA)
Undrafted since 2023: PF CJ Huntley (2W)

Analysis:Especially on the perimeter, this is one of the emptier developmental corps in the league. Ighodaro played in all 82 games and started the sweep against Oklahoma City due to Mark Williams’ foot injury. You can certainly do a lot worse for a backup center, though Ighodaro is one of the worst free-throw shooters in the league. Dunn is also a sub-50 percent free-throw shooter. He doesn’t rack up the steals and blocks like he did at Virginia. Fleming struggled with his finishing, making only 40.5 percent from the field. Maluach was buried behind Williams and Ighodaro, though he was able to show flashes of shot blocking and played well in most of his nine 15-minute games.

2026 draft picks: 47

Draft need:Phoenix doesn’t have a first-round pick or Bradley Beal. There aren’t any developmental wings, particularly one who would be comfortable as a slasher. That could be a target for the Suns in the second round.

Sacramento Kings

2023 draft: N/A
2024 draft: SG Devin Carter
2025 draft: SG Nique Clifford, C Maxime Raynaud
Undrafted since 2023: PG Isaiah Stevens (2W, FA), C Dylan Cardwell

Analysis:Only the Warriors and Clippers had older rosters than the Kings, a 60-loss team. The Kings got a lot out of their rookies, though. Raynaud was the only second-round pick to make an All-Rookie team, posting 13 20-point games. Clifford struggled on both ends of the floor, but only Raynaud and DeMar DeRozan logged more total minutes than Clifford among Kings. Cardwell is the opposite of Raynaud — an underwhelming offensive player, but a sturdy defender who was promoted from a two-way contract. Carter is a sub-30 percent 3-point shooter who has yet to overcome his lack of size for a combo guard.

2026 draft picks: 7, 34, 45

Draft need:The Kings won eight of their final 18 games of the season, winding up with the seventh pick in the draft. Sacramento needs to figure out its center situation, but that’s a matter of Domantas Sabonis’ value, not something the Kings need to address in the draft. It makes sense for the Kings to target a true point guard of the future after trading Dennis Schröder and with Russell Westbrook entering free agency. The second round should be an opportunity to replenish the forward spots with an eye toward defense. The Kings ranked 28th on that end.

Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks

2023 draft: C Dereck Lively II
2024 draft: SG AJ Johnson, PF Tyler Smith (2W)
2025 draft: SF Cooper Flagg
Undrafted since 2023: PG Ryan Nembhard (FA), C Moussa Cisse (2W, FA), SG John Poulakidas (2W)

Analysis:Eight years ago, the Mavericks drafted the 2026 scoring champion and the 2026 Finals MVP. At least they have the 2026 Rookie of the Year. Flagg had 11 30-point games to lead all rookies, had the most 40-point games (4) by a rookie since Allen Iverson in 1997 and set the record for the youngest player ever to score 50 in a game. Nembhard was the closest thing to point guard relief that Flagg had. Nembhard led all rookies with six 10-assist games and was promoted from a two-way contract at the end of February. Johnson (32.4 percent from the field, 21.1 percent on 3s) has been included in trade-deadline deals in both of his seasons. Lively played only 115 minutes in seven games before undergoing season-ending foot surgery in December. He had nearly twice as many fouls (21) as field goals (11) before being shut down.

2026 draft picks: 9, 30, 48

Draft need:The Mavericks have their own lottery pick, as well as the last pick of the first round from the Anthony Davis trade. They need a shooter after finishing 29th in 3s made, and Brayden Burries could be right there. Another point guard and some forward depth should also be under consideration for Dallas’ thin developmental corps.

Houston Rockets

2023 draft: PG Amen Thompson
2024 draft: SG Reed Sheppard, PG Tristen Newton (2W)
2025 draft: N/A
Undrafted since 2023: SF Isaiah Crawford (2W, FA)

Analysis:Houston isn’t a young team anymore after the Kevin Durant trade. Thompson led the NBA in minutes, with only All-Stars Jalen Duren and Alperen Şengün scoring more paint points this season. Sheppard had a low bar to clear after a poor rookie season, but he cleared it by appearing in all 82 games, collecting a team-high 122 steals and finishing ninth in the NBA with 227 3s (39.4 percent).

2026 draft picks: 39, 53

Draft need:The Rockets don’t have a first-round pick because they traded for one year of Russell Westbrook and one year of John Wall. Thompson and Sheppard’s challenges of being point guards in Fred VanVleet’s stead make it clear what Houston needs, but even if they use a second-round pick, it’s unlikely to help Houston for next season. The Rockets also have zero developmental bigs on the roster.

Memphis Grizzlies

2023 draft: PF Taylor Hendricks, PF Olivier-Maxence Prosper (FA), SF Rayan Rupert (2W, FA), PF GG Jackson II (FA)
2024 draft: C Zach Edey, SF Jaylen Wells, SG Cam Spencer
2025 draft: SG Cedric Coward, PG Walter Clayton Jr., PG Javon Small (2W), SG Jahmai Mashack (2W)
Undrafted since 2023: N/A

Analysis:By the end of the season, the majority of Memphis’ roster consisted of players from the last three drafts. Memphis is one of two teams (along with San Antonio) to have an All-Rookie selection in each of the last three years. Coward was a first-team selection and was tied for fourth among rookies with seven double-doubles. Wells, a Rookie of the Year finalist in 2025, was fellow Washington State product Coward’s co-starter on the wing. Jackson, an All-Rookie team selection in 2024, was a much better finisher than his previous two seasons. Edey, Memphis’ fourth All-Rookie team selection on the current roster, had his second season ruined by multiple ankle surgeries that may also impact his preparation for next season. Spencer led the league in free-throw percentage (94) while making 44.9 percent from 3. Prosper was promoted from a two-way contract in March and turned in sparkling percentages (54.9/40.5/75.4), though his rebounding and defense were not as good. Clayton and Hendricks arrived from Utah via the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade. Clayton averaged 5.7 assists in Memphis but struggled to make shots, while Hendricks flashed some of the 3-and-D traits that made him a top-10 pick before his severe right-leg injuries.

2026 draft picks: 3, 16, 32

Draft need:Memphis has just one player remaining from the franchise’s lone playoff series win against the Timberwolves in 2022, and that’s Ja Morant. The Grizzlies should be able to draft Jaren Jackson Jr.’s replacement in the lottery. Either Boozer or Wilson should help improve the worst defensive rebounding team in the league at power forward. The Grizzlies could use a center as well, given Edey’s durability concerns. The success Memphis has had drafting wings could lead to another pick being used there.

New Orleans Pelicans

2023 draft: SG Jordan Hawkins
2024 draft: C Yves Missi
2025 draft: PG Jeremiah Fears, PF Derik Queen, SF Micah Peavy
Undrafted since 2023: SG Trey Alexander (2W, FA), PF Josh Oduro (2W, FA), C Hunter Dickinson (2W, FA)

Analysis:The Pelicans traded out of the 2026 lottery in the rare win-now move with a lame-duck head coach under a new front office. Willie Green was fired in November and the Pelicans lost 56 games. Now the Hawks have a top-10 pick. But they had two All-Rookie team selections! Fears played all 82 games and was one of four rookies to score more than 1,000 points. Queen played 81 games, led all rookies in rebounding and had two triple-doubles that showed his ability with the ball. Both Fears and Queen have a long way to go to become reliable defenders. Missi was a rookie starter, but he took a back seat with Zion Williamson healthier and Queen, Kevon Looney and DeAndre Jordan on the team. Peavy has the potential to be a tough defender, but he couldn’t score (38.5 percent field goals, 25.9 percent 3s). Hawkins is an average shooter, which isn’t great news since he hasn’t shown that he can do enough elsewhere to stay on the floor.

2026 draft picks: 58

Draft need:Despite all of the draft capital spent on young bigs, New Orleans still ranked 28th in defensive rebound percentage. That’s not going to fly under new head coach Jamahl Mosley. Whoever gets added to the roster needs to be a solid positional rebounder.

San Antonio Spurs

2023 draft: C Victor Wembanyama
2024 draft: PG Stephon Castle, PF Harrison Ingram (2W)
2025 draft: PG Dylan Harper, SF Carter Bryant
Undrafted since 2023: SG David Jones Garcia (2W), SF Emanuel Miller (2W)

Analysis:This is the best developmental corps in the NBA, if not necessarily the deepest. Wembanyama is the only All-Star selected in the last three drafts. He’s also the Defensive Player of the Year, an All-NBA first team selection and a finalist for MVP. Castle built on his Rookie of the Year campaign by finishing sixth among qualifiers in assists per game (7.4), also establishing himself as a fearsome point-of-attack defender. Harper became the eighth rookie in league history to score more than 300 points in a postseason, doingso while coming off of the bench for all but two playoff games. Bryant was occasionally in Mitch Johnson’s doghouse in the playoffs, but he was a consistent source of defensive energy all season.

2026 draft picks: 20, 35, 42, 44

Draft need:Despite winning 62 games, the Spurs have the 20th pick from the Dejounte Murray trade. San Antonio doesn’t necessarily need another guard unless there’s a De’Aaron Fox trade, but it could use another defensive playmaker after finishing 28th in opponent-turnover percentage. San Antonio gave up on Sochan, so another power forward makes sense as well, especially with Harrison Barnes and Kelly Olynyk entering free agency.

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