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By the start of the 2026 NBA playoffs, it was a foregone conclusion to many the road to Western Conference supremacy would go through San Antonio and Oklahoma City.

Once the Spurs and Thunder completed their epic, seven-game battle in the Western Conference finals, which ended with the Spurs upsetting the defending NBA champs on the road, it felt like that series was just the beginning of these teams’ collective reign atop the West for the foreseeable future.

Not only are San Antonio and Oklahoma City flush with young talent, but they both have young, accomplished head coaches they believe in. Both teams also have a ton of draft assets that will allow them to make other moves when they deem necessary.

Beyond those top two, there are four other teams in the Western Conference with superstar talent, formidable playoff resumes and a clear commitment to immediately competing at the highest level: the Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets. On paper, those four have the skill set to compete for a title — but it also feels to some like they all have a long way to go to catch the top dogs in the West.

What can be done among these four teams to change that dynamic? To provide insight on where each team stands heading into the regular season, we turn to the following NBA writers: Will Guillory on the Rockets, Law Murray on the Lakers, Christian Clark on the Nuggets and Jon Krawczynski on the Timberwolves.

What’s the biggest reason your team should be considered a serious threat to break into the Spurs/Thunder tier?

Murray (Lakers): Luka Dončić, the reigning, defending scoring champion. He’s not getting traded like two seasons ago, and the Lakers are hoping the injuries that torpedoed his spring can be left behind. Three seasons ago, Dončić led the Dallas Mavericks, a five-seed, through the hot coals of the Western Conference.

This Lakers team is further formed in Dončić’s image, with new money paid out to his chosen sidekick (Austin Reaves) and an optimal bodyguard (Walker Kessler) and without having to account for LeBron James anymore. It also doesn’t hurt that the Lakers have only three games each against the Thunder and Spurs this season, not including the two matchups that will appear on the schedule after NBA Cup group play concludes.

Clark (Nuggets): When healthy, the Nuggets have one of the best starting fives in the NBA. Last season, the unit of Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić steamrolled opponents, outscoring other teams by 13.5 points per 100 possessions.

The problem was that we didn’t get to see it much because of health. This Nuggets quintet collectively played 360 minutes together across 23 games. Gordon missed more than half the season, mostly because of persistent right hamstring issues, and Braun was limited to 44 games due to a badly sprained left ankle. The Nuggets need bounce-back seasons from both players. I’m not that worried about Braun. He’s been very durable in the past and, at only 25 years old, doesn’t have much mileage on him. I hold more concern for Gordon, who’s 30 and has played only 87 games over the past two years.

Guillory (Rockets): When fully healthy, the Rockets have the size, strength and versatility to bully just about anyone in the league. Last season, Houston was No. 6 in defensive rating and No. 1 in rebounding percentage, despite getting only 32 games from Steven Adams. With Adams back, the Rockets can return to featuring double-big lineups with him and Alperen Şengün that crushed opponents in short stints the last two seasons.

Houston also has one of the deepest stables of wings in the league with Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and their newest addition: Marcus Smart. Rockets coach Ime Udoka will be able to keep at least two All-Defensive-caliber perimeter players on the floor for all 48 minutes. Add Fred VanVleet to the mix after returning from a torn ACL and Reed Sheppard entering Year 3, and Houston’s top-nine rotation players will be as talented and defensively sound as any other top nine around the NBA.

Krawczynski (Timberwolves): Pure talent. There are real questions to ask whether the new-look Wolves can stay healthy and how all the pieces will fit together. But in terms of just raw talent from one through nine, the Wolves have a lot of it.

Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball are two of the best offensive players in the league. Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels are two of the best defensive players in the league. Jonathan Kuminga is ultra athletic and comes in with something to prove. Ayo Dosunmu, Terrence Shannon Jr., Joan Beringer and Bones Hyland have plenty of juice off the bench.

Chris Finch has a lot of work to do in tailoring an offense to maximize this team’s strengths. But he also has a lot of tools at his disposal.

What was the biggest addition that will help get your team past San Antonio and/or OKC?

Murray: It better be Kessler. They gave up picks and dollars to secure a player whose best years need to be ahead of him. The Thunder and Spurs are both drive-heavy teams, and Kessler certainly will be needed as a deterrent at the rim for when questionable Lakers defenders get opened up.

On the other side, Kessler’s finishing and offensive rebounding will be critical against two teams that have elite rim protection and additional developmental size. He has to be very good against the teams that employ Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama.

Clark: By default, it has to be signing DeMar DeRozan to a one-year deal worth the veteran’s minimum, right? There aren’t many other moves to choose from. I think there are legitimate questions about how DeRozan’s isolation-heavy style meshes with Jokić’s preference for ball and body movement, but overall, this is still a good signing for the Nuggets.

DeRozan will transition into a reserve role after spending the first 17 years of his NBA career as a starter. The Nuggets needed someone capable of getting their own shot in these bench units. I’m not optimistic that a 37-year-old DeRozan moves the needle that much in a playoff series against the Spurs or Thunder, but he’s still a capable bucket-getter.

Guillory: Houston’s desperate need for reliable point-guard play may have been the most glaring weakness on any of these four teams last season. While Thompson did excel in an increased role and Sheppard found a way to gradually improve as the season went along, this team’s constant failures in late-game situations was usually fueled by the lack of a veteran presence to settle the team down and generate quality possessions during pivotal moments.

Now, not only is VanVleet back after missing the entire 2025-26 season, but Smart also enters the fold in Houston after playing a pivotal role in knocking his new team out of last season’s playoffs as a member of the Lakers. VanVleet and Smart have played a combined 177 playoff games. They know how to execute when the pressure goes up.

Additionally, we’ve seen throughout Durant’s career that, although he’s capable of dominating in just about any environment, he’s at his very best when he gets to play next to a point guard who can take some of the shot-creation burden off his shoulders.

Krawczynski: Ball. The Wolves struggled in the playoffs against San Antonio last season because the Spurs could relentlessly double-team Anthony Edwards without any consequence behind them. As soon as Edwards would cross half court, two (and sometimes even three) Spurs would be waiting for him. Ball is a one-man counterpunch to that approach.

If Edwards can throw the ball over the top to Ball, he will immediately have a four-on-three advantage, and that’s where he eats. With either a quick 3 or a slick pass to an open shooter, Ball will be able to take so much playmaking pressure off Edwards. It will also allow Edwards to spend more time in his natural position off the ball, attacking closeouts and creating for himself.

If he has the same impact on Wolves teammates that he had in raising the floor for every Charlotte player who shared the floor with him last season, Minnesota has a real shot.

What was the biggest loss that will hurt your team against San Antonio/OKC?

Murray: LeBron James is the obvious one. Not having him on the floor makes the Lakers more ordinary from a positional-size standpoint, not to mention that James led the entire league in fast-break points. The Lakers were one of the least athletic teams in the league last season, and yet, they had a 41-year-old sprinting out for easy buckets.

But a word here for Smart leaving too. Smart was a shutdown corner, a player who could take on the assignment of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Stephon Castle and allow the Lakers to shift their defense accordingly. Now, the Lakers don’t have that level of point-of-attack defense or defensive versatility among their rotation players. (Is Quentin Grimes up for that?)

Clark: Peyton Watson. The Nuggets’ first-round playoff series loss to the Timberwolves put the gap in athleticism between the teams in stark relief. The Timberwolves paraded to the rim at will and hounded Jamal Murray, who shot 35.7 percent from the field. If the Nuggets are ever going to get back to the finals, it seems obvious to me that they’re going to need to surround Murray and Jokić with long, rangy athletes like Watson, who didn’t suit up in the postseason.

It had to be gutting for Nuggets fans to watch Watson get sent to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a sign-and-trade and not receive a player in return. We’ll see what the Nuggets do with the 2031 Cavaliers first-round pick they control between now and February. But what a shame it was for the Nuggets to lose a 23-year-old athlete like Watson, who was coming off a career year.

Guillory: On paper, the Rockets are bringing back close to the same team they had last season, and VanVleet and Adams are healthy once again. Seven of the eight players who logged at least 900 minutes last season are back.

While the addition of Smart is a great way to address his departure, don’t sleep on how much Josh Okogie helped last season’s team with his physical on-ball defense and overall hustle on both ends of the floor. While many Rockets fans clamored for more minutes with Eason or Sheppard, Houston’s best lineups from a plus-minus perspective often featured Okogie.

More than any individual loss, the one concern is that the Rockets had incredible injury luck with their perimeter guys during the regular season. Durant, Thompson, Smith and Sheppard all appeared in at least 77 games, which is wild considering how high their minute totals were most nights. Will the Rockets be able to keep all those guys healthy again this season?

Krawczynski: The lack of playmaking and shooting around Edwards. Julius Randle struggled mightily in the 2025 Western Conference finals against OKC and the 2026 conference semifinals against San Antonio. Edwards needed a second star to shoulder more of the offensive load, especially while he was playing through the pain of two injured knees.

Jaden McDaniels also wasn’t as effective against the Spurs as he was against Denver in the first round. With Ball and Kuminga added, and with Dosunmu entering his first full season in Minnesota, the Wolves hope they have found some answers.

What separates your team from the other three in this tier?

Murray: The Pacific Time Zone?

To be honest, what separates the Lakers from the Nuggets, Rockets and Timberwolves is they had real success against those three teams that showed real progress. The Nuggets ended the Darvin Ham-led Lakers teams in back-to-back postseasons, but the Lakers are 4-1 against the Nuggets with Dončić playing the last two seasons.

The Timberwolves beat the Lakers in the 2025 playoffs, then the Lakers went on to sweep the Timberwolves in the 2025-26 regular-season series — and LeBron didn’t play in either meeting. The Lakers were unwrapped by the Rockets on Christmas before winning six of the next eight matchups, including four wins in Houston and a conference-quarterfinals win without Dončić.

That success has to be re-established this season, but head coach JJ Redick and his staff figured these teams out last season.

Clark: The Nuggets have the best player among this group of teams. Jokić became the first player in NBA history to lead the league in rebounds and assists per game last season. He’s a mixture of power and finesse in a center we’ve never really seen before — sort of like if Steve Nash was seven inches taller and 100 pounds heavier.

I will say that I’m expecting Dončić to have a fantastic season. He looks like he’s in phenomenal shape and is the only NBA player, in my mind, who comes close to matching Jokić in terms of pure offensive talent.

Guillory: The Rockets have a defensive ceiling that should be well above what Los Angeles and Denver can reach, and it probably exceeds Minnesota now that Ball and Kuminga are two obvious targets teams will look to attack. As weird as it sounds, I’d also say Houston is the one team out of this group that has the draft assets to go out and make a big move before the trade deadline to shake things up even more.

If someone like Kyrie Irving, Keyonte George or Trey Murphy suddenly became available, the Rockets have the assets necessary to swoop in and grab one of those guys. The Lakers-Wolves-Nuggets trio have a combined zero first-round picks they can move before the 2030 season.

Krawczynski: The Wolves arguably have the best backcourt of this group. Ball and Edwards can make a case for being the best backcourt in the league. They are two All-Star-level performers who just turned 25 in August.

They have been spending a ton of time around each other this summer, including working out together at the team’s practice facility in Minneapolis. Everything hinges on their connection.

What has to happen for your team to reach the Western Conference finals?

Murray: They need Dončić, Reaves and Kessler to be the best versions of themselves in the regular season, and to be durable, as well. All three players missed significant time last year. LeBron is not around to help raise the floor.

The Lakers have plenty of warm bodies ready to populate the rotation, but these three are the chosen difference makers. It still might not be enough, given the fact that the Thunder and Spurs had very little problems pressuring the Lakers’ ballhandlers and then beating the Lakers’ defense at will. How Redick accounts for those shortcomings around Dončić, Reaves and Kessler bears watching.

But if Dončić, Reaves, or Kessler aren’t playing to their level, or aren’t playing at all, you can forget about everything else.

Clark: More than anything, the Nuggets need a healthy Gordon, who has missed 75 games over the past two seasons. There’s no way for the Nuggets to replace his skill set. Gordon gives Denver rim protection and on-ball defense. He’s a perfect lob target for Jokić, one who is skilled enough to handle the ball and create offense when the three-time MVP goes to the bench.

The Nuggets outscored other teams by 12.7 points per 100 possessions in Gordon’s minutes last season. They have zero hope of winning multiple playoff series without him.

Guillory: First and foremost, they need a healthy Durant in the postseason, which they did not have last season. Durant’s shotmaking and the plethora of high-level defenders they can put on the floor should make the Rockets a tough out for anyone they get in the first round. But beyond that, what they need most is Şengün and Thompson to take the next step in their respective careers and become reliable playoff performers who can match what guys on these other teams have proven already.

With Minnesota, L.A. and Denver, it’s not just the main guys we’ve seen come up big under the bright lights. McDaniels. Gordon and Reaves all are proven in the playoffs. As great as Durant is still capable of being at this stage in his career, he needs his two biggest co-stars to show they’re ready to rise to the occasion and get past the first round for the first time in their careers.

Krawczynski: Let’s just go through it one by one.

• Edwards: Play the kind of consistent defense he was talking about in his recruitment of Kuminga.
• Ball: Stay healthy and tailor his decision-making to a team that is playing for real stakes for the first time in his career.
• McDaniels: Make another leap offensively to true third option.
• Kuminga: Embrace playing a role over chasing stardom and money.
• Gobert: Develop pick-and-roll chemistry with Ball.
• Dosunmu: Effectively toggle between playmaker and scorer.
• Shannon: Improve his attention to detail on defense.
• Beringer: Prove he can handle 15-20 minutes nightly as Gobert’s backup.
• Trey Lyles: Be the floor-spacing 4 option the Wolves need against certain matchups.
• Donte DiVincenzo: Return from this torn Achilles in time to get his feet underneath him before the playoffs.
• Jaylen Clark: Make corner 3s.